Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[Prismshine Productions]

2-4" is guidance for me down here in the Valley, puts Bratt ahead of where last season was if that varified

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[ineedsnow]

GFS increasing from 6z

[weatherwiz]

GFS looking juicy...ORH going to get a decent event out of this. Def going to be an area of 4-6''

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS increasing from 6z

Yeah that was a big bump from 6z

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[WxWatcher007]

Probably not the right place for this but high res and now the GFS has the chance of snow showers later this evening in western Mass/CT. HRRR most aggressive.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The GFS will be nice for Wachusett's opening day on Thursday.  6" of powder will help them.

 

I wouldn't mind a snow day

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

GFS looking juicy...ORH going to get a decent event out of this. Def going to be an area of 4-6''

looks like the GFS wants to pull moisture from a lake effect band that develops and enhances snowfall around here

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably not the right place for this but high res and now the GFS has the chance of snow showers later this evening in western Mass/CT. HRRR most aggressive.

we had some light snow here a couple hours ago

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably not the right place for this but high res and now the GFS has the chance of snow showers later this evening in western Mass/CT. HRRR most aggressive.

Nice shortwave coming through this evening with some mlvl moisture to work with

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looks like the GFS wants to pull moisture from a lake effect band that develops and enhances snowfall around here

certainly may be some enhancement across the southern Greens into the northern Berks with the initially due southerly flow 

[Prismshine Productions]

we had some light snow here a couple hours ago

I been having on and off snow showers since last night, they are brief but still... Flakes are flakes.

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[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While I would remain cautious about some of increasing totals in this morning's short range guidance, there is a solid trend towards juicing this system up, as noted by Wiz... Probably going to be a 2-3 hour period of enhanced rates across parts of the region?

Strong isentropic lift and some steep lapse rates aloft so that will help offset the typical srly flow/low qpf results one would expect.  
 

So I guess the question is where roughly in longitude does this occur? Near NJ/NYC or further east?

[ineedsnow]

not that its worth much at this range but some of the 12z GEFS members have gone wild

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

not that its worth much at this range but some of the 12z GEFS members have gone wild

We’ll take any good news.… .

[Prismshine Productions]

not that its worth much at this range but some of the 12z GEFS members have gone wild

There is some worth there because of the fact clippers are really unpredictable... If the juicing continues up through tomorrow I think some WSWs have to be issued

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[weatherwiz]

I think its going to rip pretty good in Worcester County right into northeast CT just west of where you have some initial BL concerns. Sufficient moisture into the DGZ with some pretty steep lapse rates aiding in instability. I would like to see a bit stronger lift on the RH sounding (at least from 12z NAM but we'll see what 12z GFS has) but I feel pretty confident in a 4-6'' zone and I would not be shocked to see a 7'' report in the highest elevations there (Worcester county). I could see 1.5''/hour rates for a good 2-3 hours...could even get drawn out closer to 4 hours.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think its going to rip pretty good in Worcester County right into northeast CT just west of where you have some initial BL concerns. Sufficient moisture into the DGZ with some pretty steep lapse rates aiding in instability. I would like to see a bit stronger lift on the RH sounding (at least from 12z NAM but we'll see what 12z GFS has) but I feel pretty confident in a 4-6'' zone and I would not be shocked to see a 7'' report in the highest elevations there (Worcester county). I could see 1.5''/hour rates for a good 2-3 hours...could even get drawn out closer to 4 hours.

models ramping up for later today in your area.. maybe a coating for you?

[Prismshine Productions]

models ramping up for later today in your area.. maybe a coating for you?

Any idea how accurate this map is? If it is legit some areas in northern Mass/S VT/S NH could get 10:1 or better ratios with 6:1 being down near the coast

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[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

models ramping up for later today in your area.. maybe a coating for you?

I think I have a chance for around 2'' or so. I'm a bit nervous in the valley but I think one thing to watch for tomorrow which could help the valley's is how well do we mix through the day. It's going to get very cold tonight and if we struggle mixing tomorrow we may not see the valley warm too much. Even the mix happy GFS at CEF (bufkit) is barely mid 30's for CEF.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will E MA WX issue first calls?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Any idea how accurate this map is? If it is legit some areas in northern Mass/S VT/S NH could get 10:1 or better ratios with 6:1 being down near the coast

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looks about right but Ive never used it

[ineedsnow]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I think I have a chance for around 2'' or so. I'm a bit nervous in the valley but I think one thing to watch for tomorrow which could help the valley's is how well do we mix through the day. It's going to get very cold tonight and if we struggle mixing tomorrow we may not see the valley warm too much. Even the mix happy GFS at CEF (bufkit) is barely mid 30's for CEF.

I was talking about later today..    I think your good for 2 or so tomorrow night

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Any idea how accurate this map is? If it is legit some areas in northern Mass/S VT/S NH could get 10:1 or better ratios with 6:1 being down near the coast

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Away from the coast and under the heaviet precip/lift...snow ratios probably a good 12:1-15:1. Using Cobb method and ORH bufkit from NAM ratio is generally like 13:1 it seems...even as high as 16 or 17:1 under best lift

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I was talking about later today..    I think your good for 2 or so tomorrow night

ahhh...

perhaps, would have to get lucky to be impacted by a snow shower since they'll be scattered but certainly could whiten the ground if lucky to get hit

[CoastalWx]

Ratios likely will be less than 10:1 initially, especially south of ORH. Even Kevin will be slop for a bit. As temps cool to 31-32 near 1K, ratios should be higher as lift goes into the DGZ. Not sure how high as layer near 925 is still mild for a time.

[weatherwiz]

Not sure what vendors have for products but cobb method is probably the best to determine snow ratios. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Not sure what vendors have for products but cobb method is probably the best to determine snow ratios. 

What exactly is the Cobb method? I have seen it thrown around few times, but don't know the specifics


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[CoastalWx]

But I’d say greater than 15:1 possible after it cools slightly from like 6z-12z in higher elevations.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ahhh...

perhaps, would have to get lucky to be impacted by a snow shower since they'll be scattered but certainly could whiten the ground if lucky to get hit

radar looks good hoping it holds as its moves east for you

[backedgeapproaching]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looks like the GFS wants to pull moisture from a lake effect band that develops and enhances snowfall around here

That's mostly S/SW upslope into the Adirondaks and Southern Greens. Why you are seeing higher totals from most guidance in those areas. We actually do pretty well in this area of SVT on SW winds.

I see now Wiz mentioned that.