weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no? That's possible but I mean if the accuracy is because it had temperatures of 88-90 (which verified) versus 84-86 which other models had...I can't see that being a huge impact on the power grid. I would want to know more details though. For example, say google AI was showing a large area of high temperatures in the 105-110 range at D10 and the GFS was a bit more muted...100-105. What preparations would be made differently within the energy industry, for example? Now...if we're talking where this was showing widespread 100+ while other models were like 70-80 and this 100+ is verifying...now that is noteworthy and certainly something more groundbreaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Want to clarify...I was calling the claim garbage, not the model or the work into it. If a claim is going to be made that a weather event was nailed 10 days our or 15 days out...at least indicate the model held true to that solution for each run leading up to that day. If google AI had a category 3 hitting SNE at D15 and it ended up occurring...if between it showed solutions ranging from OTS or into the mid-Atlantic, or a weak storm...well you can't say it "nailed it". That's what I am calling garbage And I agree, the watered down article from Barrons is "garbage". But that's not what you wrote, nor what I took exception to. To quote you "Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do." You're calling the AI "GARBAGE" in this sentence, but as noted in your subsequent post this particular implementation of AI is actually better at some things due to it's hybrid approach. Again, you're a smart guy just suggesting to temper your immediate knee-jerk distaste of AI reactions and read before you post. Genuinely best regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 19 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no? my dream is to evolve technology to the point where there is no energy market. but ... since human kind cannot seem to incentivize doing anything without the potential for maximizing economic gain, that will probably continue to bury such advancements - not dissimilar to how/why big oil has conditioned all ir cultures of the world into believing oil is the only way... and has been in place so long that the fallacy is both institutional but also so multi generationally sewn into perceptions that people will blindly defend oil like a throngs of people drinking 'the cool-aide' without even knowing any reason to suspect it... the system propagandizes itself in that sense and the work is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Two inches of 34 degree ugly wet snow. We had plenty of precip but it was just too warm Congrats to those who were a little cooler and have postcard picture snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 minute ago, metagraphica said: And I agree, the watered down article from Barrons is "garbage". But that's not what you wrote, nor what I took exception to. To quote you "Was it extremely consistent or did it waver back-and-forth and have a million different solutions? If that is the case then GARBAGE. That's no different than what models currently do." You're calling the AI "GARBAGE" in this sentence, but as noted in your subsequent post this particular implementation of AI is actually better at some things due to it's hybrid approach. Again, you're a smart guy just suggesting to temper your immediate knee-jerk distaste of AI reactions and read before you post. Genuinely best regards. Agree, poorly worded by me. I am definitely interested in reading literature on this and I am certainly open to having a completely different view on this. What really irks me though (and not just with AI) is these watered down articles and and all these claims made just to draw people in, especially from companies and organizations who profit on marketing stuff...you can make anything sound good and like the best thing ever and sell it to the average Joe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I do want to invest some time to find any published, peer-reviewed papers which provide highly detailed analysis... This paper hits on one of the challenges of disruptive (read, not modernized or transformative) technology. Successfully managing the organizational change management aspect of that disruption is often as valuable as the disruption itself. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f105$002f11$002fBAMS-D-24-0044.1.xml Machine Learning-based AI has been deeply embedded into numerical weather prediction for 20 years. Generative AI is a whole different thing. And, you see the acceptance biases of NWS forecasters quite easily in this paper. And, interestingly, you see those biases morphing over the duration of the study. A side benefit of the study is the fantastic reference list of NWP and forecasting AI research papers. Enjoy! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That's possible but I mean if the accuracy is because it had temperatures of 88-90 (which verified) versus 84-86 which other models had...I can't see that being a huge impact on the power grid. I would want to know more details though. For example, say google AI was showing a large area of high temperatures in the 105-110 range at D10 and the GFS was a bit more muted...100-105. What preparations would be made differently within the energy industry, for example? Now...if we're talking where this was showing widespread 100+ while other models were like 70-80 and this 100+ is verifying...now that is noteworthy and certainly something more groundbreaking. Yeah I don’t really know about the energy economy at scale, but if forecasts are consistently a few degrees more accurate, then of course energy companies would prefer those forecasts because over the long run, they are more prepared to efficiently provide energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, das said: This paper hits on one of the challenges of disruptive (read, not modernized or transformative) technology. Successfully managing the organizational change management aspect of that disruption is often as valuable as the disruption itself. https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f105$002f11$002fBAMS-D-24-0044.1.xml Machine Learning-based AI has been deeply embedded into numerical weather prediction for 20 years. Generative AI is a whole different thing. And, you see the acceptance biases of NWS forecasters quite easily in this paper. And, interestingly, you see those biases morphing over the duration of the study. A side benefit of the study is the fantastic reference list of NWP and forecasting AI research papers. Enjoy! Definitely going to give this a read, thank you! And that was something I was going to mention too...don't current NWP models already have some degree of AI integrated into them? But looks and sounds like that will be established in the paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 And, keeping with the thread topic, snowfall total here in the Champlain Valley was a whopping 0.3". The dry slot moved in pre-dawn and now the sun is out and burning off the <1" we had OTG. And, it's a blazing 36ºF. Yuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 snow squall warnings now flying for western areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1251 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 MEZ012-018>020-023>025-033-NHZ004-051845- Southern Oxford-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Androscoggin-Interior York-Coastal York-Central Interior Cumberland-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Northern Carroll- 1251 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 ...An area of heavy snow showers and a few snow sqaulls will affect northeastern York... southern Oxford...southern Androscoggin...Cumberland and central Sagadahoc Counties... At 1250 PM EST...An area of heavy snow showers was along a line extending from Fryeburg to 9 miles south of Kennebunkport...and moving east at 35 MPH. Locations impacted include... Portland, Lewiston, South Portland, Auburn, Biddeford, Brunswick, Westbrook, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Mechanic Falls, Naples, Turner, Topsham, Cumberland, Saco, Gorham, Falmouth, Kennebunk, Cape Elizabeth, and Buxton. This includes the following highways... Interstate 295 between mile markers 1 and 30. Interstate 95 between mile markers 25 and 85. This also includes... Sebago Lake, Pleasant Mountain, Long Lake, Fortunes Rock Beach, and Higgins Beach. Peaks Island, Long Island, Cushing Island, Cousins Island, and Bailey Island. LAT...LON 4411 7103 4427 7021 4366 6982 4369 6996 4368 6999 4363 7000 4362 7005 4357 7010 4358 7016 4351 7020 4349 7033 4343 7029 4333 7039 4330 7050 TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 261DEG 34KT 4405 7091 4327 7041 $$ JC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: my dream is to evolve technology to the point where there is no energy market. but ... since human kind cannot seem to incentivize doing anything without the potential for maximizing economic gain, that will probably continue to bury such advancements - not dissimilar to how/why big oil has conditioned all ir cultures of the world into believing oil is the only way... and has been in place so long that the fallacy is both institutional but also so multi generationally sewn into perceptions that people will blindly defend oil like a throngs of people drinking 'the cool-aide' without even knowing any reason to suspect it... the system propagandizes itself in that sense and the work is done. Yeah, regio beta paradox. Institutional entrenchment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Looked nice earlier but snow was basically non-accumulating. Nothing more than a coating here. 34/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1251 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 MEZ012-018>020-023>025-033-NHZ004-051845- Southern Oxford-Interior Cumberland Highlands-Androscoggin-Interior York-Coastal York-Central Interior Cumberland-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Northern Carroll- 1251 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024 ...An area of heavy snow showers and a few snow sqaulls will affect northeastern York... southern Oxford...southern Androscoggin...Cumberland and central Sagadahoc Counties... At 1250 PM EST...An area of heavy snow showers was along a line extending from Fryeburg to 9 miles south of Kennebunkport...and moving east at 35 MPH. Locations impacted include... Portland, Lewiston, South Portland, Auburn, Biddeford, Brunswick, Westbrook, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Mechanic Falls, Naples, Turner, Topsham, Cumberland, Saco, Gorham, Falmouth, Kennebunk, Cape Elizabeth, and Buxton. This includes the following highways... Interstate 295 between mile markers 1 and 30. Interstate 95 between mile markers 25 and 85. This also includes... Sebago Lake, Pleasant Mountain, Long Lake, Fortunes Rock Beach, and Higgins Beach. Peaks Island, Long Island, Cushing Island, Cousins Island, and Bailey Island. LAT...LON 4411 7103 4427 7021 4366 6982 4369 6996 4368 6999 4363 7000 4362 7005 4357 7010 4358 7016 4351 7020 4349 7033 4343 7029 4333 7039 4330 7050 TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 261DEG 34KT 4405 7091 4327 7041 $$ JC Didn’t really stick much in CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The line approaching western MA had some juice as it passed over KTYX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Didn’t really stick much in CON. Its here now, Temp is 31°F, On the grassy surface probably will, Those are some large aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its here now, Temp is 31°F, On the grassy surface probably will, Those are some large aggregates. Yeah it was pretty much 33° at the ASOS here the entire time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah it was pretty much 33° at the ASOS here the entire time. Stuck nicely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Mod snow, accumulating at 33f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Essentially a non- event in Methuen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Those snow squeals seem to be fading a bit as they head east. Bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Coming down at a good clip and starting to stick on these heavier rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 For early December having this event hopefully portends good things to follow. Latest RTMA for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 We bare and brown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 24 minutes ago, BrianW said: My 5.5" was at 5:45AM... wish I could have measured later. Probably would have been close to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We bare and brown now. Hopefully you get some new undies under the Christmas tree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 @The 4 Seasonslooks like 5” will do it in Brooklyn CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: My 5.5" was at 5:45AM... wish I could have measured later. Probably would have been close to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 29 minutes ago, BrianW said: Can you share the link for this product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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