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Dec 5-6th clipper threat


George001
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3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

An overachiever. Last minute flags come true for once. I'm happy for all.
Windex event sweeping across NY. 
Hopefully a sign henceforth...  

It’s always great to see things amp up/get colder as we approach game time. I am very impressed with the HRRR.

I’ll keep saying it, but when my temp was rising above 40 and I was raining I was a bit concerned. Radar blossomed, we flipped to snow by midnight, and temps went down to 32.5°. Now I lost a lot of qpf to rain, but even being in the game is awfully impressive after that surface torch. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lack of qpf 

Eh. it's a combination. 

PSM/DAW dropped to 34/32 at coldest overnight; now back to 36... We know that won't stack unless it's ripping. 

It was high risk to go more than nuisance given all that needed to break right. 

 

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Only a coating at DAW. 

Wet roads.

This was a big bust away from the coast in NH.

similar here...  est .5" of glop snow in grass and sliding down car windows. just wet roads.

my buddy down in auburn ma with 5"  ( s of orh by a little ).   this 'event' needed something like a quantum computing core to better predictively assess where.  lol ...

 

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ncar's rad history doesn't make it abundantly clear why-for the paltry exclusion here. though there was a modest lull around 3 or 4 am, it was filled back in with green rad returns by dawn. 

i think perhaps the very marginal nature of this doomed the light fall rate locations. my friend in auburn was probably falling faster than melt rates, so was able to accumulate, where we were falling slower.  distribution ends up being either 1 inch or 4 with less in between.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s right. Anything can happen and it did this time. There’s no reason to look at models and forecast. Just let happen what will happen and nobody knows that ahead of time. 

Ha!!! Coming from you, this should be a lesson learned..... Just kidding lol. 

But in all seriousness, you were one of the ones that kept beating the drum on what wasn't going to happen. I think the point that some of us made before to you,  is that things can change and apparently here they did. It could just as easily go the other way ( and that will probably happen as well at some point ). I would just take this as a learning experience that anything can happen  ( as you now are saying ) instead of shooting down anything that's brought up on possible winter type scenarios ( in relation to what the models are showing ).

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