ORH_wxman Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't think they have the confidence to light up a large area for a warning. I'm also skeptical of many areas getting that much. Maybe if everything works out a few areas could. Western spine of ORH hills have a decent shot but they’ll only issue warning if 50% of a given area is high confidence for 6”+. I don’t think the area would be large enough. Could be a situation where a town like Barre MA or Oakham or even North Brookfield gets 6” and Paxton MA at higher elevation gets 4” because of the terrain and SW flow. I think there’s def going to be a terrain gradient in the QPF too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I might be...surprised If I hit 7-8 I really wouldn't be, but lower end of probability I doubt anybody but Mitch is getting 7-8” out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Western spine of ORH hills have a decent shot but they’ll only issue warning if 50% of a given area is high confidence for 6”+. I don’t think the area would be large enough. Could be a situation where a town like Barre MA or Oakham or even North Brookfield gets 6” and Paxton MA at higher elevation gets 4” because of the terrain and SW flow. I think there’s def going to be a terrain gradient in the QPF too. Yeah that's what I mean. Maybe those areas like you mentioned above 800' may do it. Certainly weenie of the year in Templeton could. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 pretty big spread on the models. 2-5" for our hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The colder trend notwithstanding, I still like my map from late last night. Somewhere in the NE hills jackpot with a 4 or 5 but most are probably 2-3”. Lower elevations struggle but get an inch or two. Most in southern CT get a measurable coating overnight I think. SE CT struggles to accumulate anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 meh system, hope some SNE weenies get their first taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: pretty big spread on the models. 2-5" for our hood. not particularly inspired by NAM temp profiles for CP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Light snow. 30/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Very light snow just started. 29.7/18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Seems like it should start as snow here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 RAP and HRRR continue to cool for eastern areas overnight. Pretty good burst of moderate snow for several hours right into Boston on both models. Prob not much accumulation right in city but just outside could see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 I like the trends but I’m still stuck at 38. Probably tough sledding here regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Maybe we see flakes to end here, otherwise, looks like a rain event and has all along here. id put chance for flakes at 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RAP and HRRR continue to cool for eastern areas overnight. Pretty good burst of moderate snow for several hours right into Boston on both models. Prob not much accumulation right in city but just outside could see some. Temps here in my valley location have dropped from 38F to 34F with the loss of daytime heating; maybe this goes towards a colder scenario here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Temps here in my valley location have dropped from 38F to 34F with the loss of daytime heating; maybe this goes towards a colder scenario here? It's warming aloft too. Like at 950 to 900. So that cold won't really be a proxy I don't think, but you also could flip to SN like the HRRR has near dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Hello, its been a while. I've been working on some stuff all spring and summer this year that think a lot of folks will be interested in (esp if you're in CT) that i will share soon. Here's our final map for tonight/tomorrow. All new graphics for the new season...lets hope its a good one. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Kind of surprised BOX has no advisory up for Windham County, only Tolland?!?. Clearly they’re going with the colder air being further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Mood flakes here. 31.5F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 31 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Hello, its been a while. I've been working on some stuff all spring and summer this year that think a lot of folks will be interested in (esp if you're in CT) that i will share soon. Here's our final map for tonight/tomorrow. All new graphics for the new season...lets hope its a good one. Hopefully it’s closer to the 6”! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 HRRR continues its ramp up to near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR continues its ramp up to near BOS. Same elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 495. Thermal profiles/soundings indicate that temps should be cold enough in this region for mainly snow or rain quickly changing to snow. Given marginal boundary layer temps...greater impacts/snow accumulations will be in the higher terrain. Strong low level southwest flow will also result in some mesoscale enhancement along the western side of the Berks, Worcester Hills and northeast CT Hills. This can be seen in a lot of the high resolution model guidance QPF fields. So while the snow amounts should be elevation dependent to some degree...expect to see the higher snow accumulations on the western/upslope side vs the eastern side at the same elevations. We continued the Winter Weather Advisory for western and central MA and also include Tolland county to account for their higher elevation. We generally expect 2-6" of snow to fall within the Winter Weather Advisory with the greater of those amounts in the high terrain...particularly on the western upslope side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Got flakes and a quick coating on the driveway. Pleasantly surprised here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Same elsewhere? You guys haven’t changed. I think the difference is that the nose of the LLJ is getting shunted east and reducing the warmth just off the deck around ern CT to eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, Bryan63 said: Got flakes and a quick coating on the driveway. Pleasantly surprised here! OES off SSW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 3 minutes ago, Bryan63 said: Got flakes and a quick coating on the driveway. Pleasantly surprised here! Fairfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Fairfield? I think he’s in mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 , 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fairfield? Middleboro Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just now, WinterWolf said: I think he’s in mass. Yeah he’s down in Middleboro. West-Southwest of Plymouth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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