Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Box with a dusting for me

I don’t think they pulled BOX map into the ALB map. BOX is still too low for your area imho. They need to up your area to Union CT 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think they pulled BOX map into the ALB map. BOX is still too low for your area imho. They need to up your area to Union CT 
 

Living here all these years and analyzing so many snow maps.. I would say a large proportion of Mets in both tv and non tv don’t know where we are located. About 75% of snow maps do the boob sag into far NE Tolland county and Windham county. Northern Windham county has a lot of lower elevations where they usually draw the jack . Here is a good example …in addition to BOX ( who you’d think would know SNE geography) I know Fish is just trying to convey Union only but there’s hills as high as Union to the south and SW and SE

[Hoth]

16 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

ALY maybe little aggressive.  Would need really solid snow growth and 15-1+ ratios to get a foot from this.

Agreed. My 0.1" seems a little over top.

[mreaves]

4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Congrats Bennington, VT on the 18z NAM

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Said no one ever.  Bennington might be the worst snow hole in VT.  Now drive a few miles east and its a completely different story.

[ROOSTA]

I'm thinking maps should go into a separate thread. No two maps are the same. As much as I like posting them anything less than 6" IS Bull Crap. I'll wait till it's worthy of note as in over a foot. ***That's what she said***  

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Living here all these years and analyzing so many snow maps.. I would say a large proportion of Mets in both tv and non tv don’t know where we are located. About 75% of snow maps do the boob sag into far NE Tolland county and Windham county. Northern Windham county has a lot of lower elevations where they usually draw the jack . Here is a good example …in addition to BOX ( who you’d think would know SNE geography) I know Fish is just trying to convey Union only but there’s hills as high as Union to the south and SW and SE

Your area is tough because by the time you get to Tolland, the highest hills are more narrow in width, so it’s like these small slivers where you’d focus the higher accumulations. So unless you know that area really well, most people will just gloss over. 
 

Even for Union, I used to always have to talk to my guy there telling him to ignore maps where they’d stop the higher accumulations near ORH and that you could extend them further south to his area. 

[weatherwiz]

Deleted other post...bad post. 

Anyways 0z HRRR looks quite iffy along 84 and even to BDL

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your area is tough because by the time you get to Tolland, the highest hills are more narrow in width, so it’s like these small slivers where you’d focus the higher accumulations. So unless you know that area really well, most people will just gloss over. 
 

Even for Union, I used to always have to talk to my guy there telling him to ignore maps where they’d stop the higher accumulations near ORH and that you could extend them further south to his area. 

Yeah totally same thing. Snow maps for this area are almost always incorrect . It makes it even more difficult in micro elevation events where like every 100 feet makes a difference 

[greenmtnwx]

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Look at HRRR and 3k. Bennington never jacks, its a pit. Its east and northeast of them. They will probably still get a few inches though, I know your new-ish to SVT, lot of terrain nuances come into play on pretty much every system, even clippers.

I drive through Bennington at least every couple of weeks on the way to my cabin near Stratton. The lack of snow in Bennington is almost astounding. There’s almost never snow there all winter. But go up route 9 into Searsburg and Woodford and it’s a whole different story.

[powderfreak]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked at that. It looks like some sort of WF convergence because flow is SW. 

yeah, it’s not some deep layer WNW flow… but there has to be a westerly moisture feed/boundary creating lift as the WF slowly migrates north.  

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah totally same thing. Snow maps for this area are almost always incorrect . It makes it even more difficult in micro elevation events where like every 100 feet makes a difference 

I'd feel better about your spot especially after seeing the latest HRR than where I am, you're just high enough and west enough to get the goods.

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah totally same thing. Snow maps for this area are almost always incorrect . It makes it even more difficult in micro elevation events where like every 100 feet makes a difference 

Yeah. It’s impossible with the topography out there so get ready to be included in a 1-3 with lollipops to 4” zone lol. 

[CoastalWx]

NAMs are gross 

[ineedsnow]

0z Nam jacks here.. looks like a half foot or so

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Must’ve been some good bursts of snow in Springfield area. I came down to see my fading mother-in-law and there is a good half inch or more on the grass.

[J Paul Gordon]

Can't figure my area out from maps. 1-3? Clinton is in a weird location re Fitchburg (higher amounts) and Marlborough (lower). I guess this is asking more than maps and voodoo wishcasting can provide. LOL

[weathafella]

NAM says why bother for 95% of us.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah totally same thing. Snow maps for this area are almost always incorrect . It makes it even more difficult in micro elevation events where like every 100 feet makes a difference 

That's why the issuance of maps for many areas has to accompanied by a detailed topo discussion; better yet an in-person phone conversation.  There is almost no way to accurately depict the gradient across your area; same for portions of western & west-central CT.

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAMs are gross 

We can't get lucky 

[WxWatcher007]

I’m definitely more bearish on this now. It’s really marginal which is hilarious given the departures we have right now. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Oh well, there's alway another day, month, year, decade....

[ineedsnow]

0z GFS about 3/4 of a inch of qpf here now.. I thought it would come down a bit but ended up bumping up 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

NAM

 

[Torch Tiger]

59 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Oh well, there's alway another day, month, year, decade....

for?

[Torch Tiger]

On 11/29/2024 at 9:28 PM, weathafella said:

Good post, George.  It will be nice to see some snow finally.

will you see snow?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

will you see snow?

I may not be awake if it happens but a resounding maybe.

[joey2002]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think they pulled BOX map into the ALB map. BOX is still too low for your area imho. They need to up your area to Union CT 
 

HREF and Euro look better in NE CT (also GFS, RGEM, and 6z HRRR) so I wonder if BOX shifts a bit south with their next map.  
 

[joey2002]

9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think they pulled BOX map into the ALB map. BOX is still too low for your area imho. They need to up your area to Union CT 
 

New map is indeed better for eastern hills and looks a lot like the HREF

 

 

Also the last 2 RGEM runs have put a bullseye right over Kevin’s house for some reason:

[CoastalWx]

Some of the qpf will be used to wetbulb I think especially south of ORH. Still some questions as to exactly where the precip shield blossoms too. But that BOX map looks decent. Don’t expect anything around BOS other than ending as flakes.