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Dec 5-6th clipper threat

George001

By George001,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland

8.5”  https://i.imgur.com/zVTCUOm.jpeg

Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Credit to my wife for taking this pic, one of the old connecting bridges between Brattleboro and Hinesdale. 1.75" so far, really over performing since the 1z HRRR only had us at half an inch right now

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 5:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go NAM.

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I love when there is weather going on because you can get some big time differences (at least with temperatures) from MOS/NBM, the 2m products, and bufkit. I should add with my comment, despite those differences, the end game isn't much different. Even on the "colder" guidance BOS is going to be too warm for snow but its just a difference of whether they can end as a mix or a brief period of all snow. 

I was looking at MOS/NBM for stations within the region...GARBAGE. Sometimes I think the NBM is a big time fraud. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 5:59 PM, WinterWolf said:

It seems like everything the last few years has been a Nowcast in some way or another…

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The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

The few snow events we’ve had have been marginal temps or close calls on precip even hitting us (like Feb 13th last winter). Haven’t had a relatively easy moderate/major snow forecast in a few winters. 

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I fully expect to pay for that miracle over the next decade. With interest. :lol: 

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Layman

Layman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:11 PM, dryslot said:

The days of yore of locking in model runs from day 4-5 have gone, Most are now inside 36 hrs or even 24 hrs out.

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Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:24 PM, Layman said:

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

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The constant tinkering known as "upgrades"...

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:24 PM, Layman said:

Due to data overload?  Poor model programming?  Overly dynamic weather patterns?  Something or "some things" is affecting the longer term accuracy it seems.  It would be interesting to get a solid grasp on what that, or those things are.

 

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One would think with today's technology that modeling would be better not worse.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

MAZ002>004-008>010-012-026-041015-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of Fitchburg, Blandford, Amherst, Milford,
Charlemont, Worcester, Orange, Chesterfield, Barre, Northampton,
Greenfield, and Ayer
134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-5" with
  localized 6" amounts possible in the highest terrain.

* WHERE...Much of Western and Central Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow accumulations of the snowfall
  range are expected to be in the higher terrain of the northern
  Worcester Hills and Berkshires.
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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 5:59 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

A blend of models typically seems the way to go... but which one do you favor?

45% Euro, 35% GFS, 19% NAM, 1% ICON, CMC, etc...

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 I've been looking at the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal Maps (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/) ... Their blend of models for the maps is shown in the attached text image.  A combo of these maps and the HREF suite is my starting point, which I then tweak.  

The occasionally have a bias of being a bit too conservative but overall do a decent job.image.png.3b05ffa39944aeb389b1d45917f41f59.png

 

 

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:34 PM, dryslot said:

One would think with today's technology that modeling would be better not worse.

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Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. 

We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. 

But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process. 

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:40 PM, ineedsnow said: 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Boston/Norton MA134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024MAZ002>004-008>010-012-026-041015-/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0011.241205T0100Z-241205T1500Z/Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Southern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Including the cities of Fitchburg, Blandford, Amherst, Milford,Charlemont, Worcester, Orange, Chesterfield, Barre, Northampton,Greenfield, and Ayer134 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AMEST THURSDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-5" with localized 6" amounts possible in the highest terrain.* WHERE...Much of Western and Central Massachusetts.* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow accumulations of the snowfall range are expected to be in the higher terrain of the northern Worcester Hills and Berkshires.

Want to see a funny map?0b35bba8d6647f551d34beda195ea8b1.jpg

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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Prismshine Productions

Prismshine Productions

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:53 PM, ineedsnow said:
some in western MA about to get crushed hoping it holds for the Westfield, Springfield, Hartford area.. they deserve it    and that map will fill in later on today for your area
Yeah, for some unexpected reason NWS Albany has been extremely slow with the updates (they didn't even mention area accumulations until 2am this morning)

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 6:46 PM, weatherwiz said:

Overall modeling is substantially better but I think forecasting and forecasting skill is going downhill. At the end of the day, forecasting goes way beyond just quickly assessing various products such as QPF, snow maps, supercell composite parameters, etc. Forecasting is an art which requires a great deal of time. Unfortunately, in today's world nobody wants to spend time anymore...nobody has time. At the TriState Weather Conference there were a few presenters from NWS and TV one big hurdle for them is they are required to do so much social media presence...too make a long story short, people who work in forecasting are spending most of their time doing anything but forecasting. 

We're all on here quickly looking at H5 maps, snow maps, QPF maps between model-to-model and generating quick thoughts...but at the end of the day, for the most accurate forecast, multiple hours should be spent doing a diagnostic of the current state, taking current conditions and comparing to the models, then applying an understanding of each strength/weakness of a particular model, understanding the current pattern and using knowledge to gauge which model may be best at handling the current state and its evolution. 

But overall, I truly believe forecasting skill is going downhill because there is just so much running to and rip and reading specific products and not enough applications of meteorology to the process. 

Expand  

yet ...when some of us spend the time to really write detailed analysis from both surmise, as well as educated perspective base ... people don't read, rather ... make chide and/or make sarcastic barbs and general disrespect for the effort.

basically,  americans are turning into c*s

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Layman

Layman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 7:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yet ...when some of us spend the time to really write detailed analysis from both surmise, as well as educated perspective base ... people don't read, rather ... make chide and/or make sarcastic barbs and general disrespect for the effort.

basically,  americans are turning into c*s

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For the record, I poke fun at some of your missives because the weather verbiage is way over my head.  I appreciate the time and effort you put in to explain your perspective even if I don't understand it.  It gives me something to look into, learn more about, consider, form my own opinions on, etc.  Others here also take the time to explain what their thoughts are, how things may play out and why they think that may be the case.  It's all appreciated and I'm sure there's a quieter group on here that takes the time to read the well thought out explanations and never responds, sarcastically or otherwise but benefits from the analysis.

I'd encourage you and others to keep it up, in spite of some of us dbags because any off color reply is only in jest (or should be!) and we all learn from your explanations.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 7:31 PM, Layman said:

For the record, I poke fun at some of your missives because the weather verbiage is way over my head.  I appreciate the time and effort you put in to explain your perspective even if I don't understand it.  It gives me something to look into, learn more about, consider, form my own opinions on, etc.  Others here also take the time to explain what their thoughts are, how things may play out and why they think that may be the case.  It's all appreciated and I'm sure there's a quieter group on here that takes the time to read the well thought out explanations and never responds, sarcastically or otherwise but benefits from the analysis.

I'd encourage you and others to keep it up, in spite of some of us dbags because any off color reply is only in jest (or should be!) and we all learn from your explanations.

Expand  

oh.. right.  no i meant that at a societal/general scope of this field, but may as well be everywhere heh.   it's a problem in culture..."eschewing of intellect" in general.  

it kind of reminds me of "Idiocrasy,"  when they arrested him for being smart ass because he was smart. hahaha

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