weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said: What exactly is the Cobb method? I have seen it thrown around few times, but don't know the specifics Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Like other methods, it accounts for temperature, moisture (relative humidity), but I believe the differentiator is it also factors in upward vertical velocity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 ukie beefing up from its meh 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 It's the extended HRRR so caution applies, however, this is an intriguing scenario. Develops a squall line which races east and then interacts with the precip shield moving across the eastern part of the region which then allows for snow to blossom region-wide around the AM commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Kevin should be rooting for the CMC solution. Tolland jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Kevin should be rooting for the CMC solution. Tolland jackpot. Yeah. A nice blob of snow slipping off his noggin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Strong isentropic lift and some steep lapse rates aloft so that will help offset the typical srly flow/low qpf results one would expect. So I guess the question is where roughly in longitude does this occur? Near NJ/NYC or further east? Agree... Waiting game right now... Some consistent signals that it happens far enough east focus best rates from northeast CT on north and east into interior eastern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Kevin should be rooting for the CMC solution. Tolland jackpot.Hope you are back up here in the valley since you missed the last oneSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Pretty interesting...NAM warms BOS through the overnight and GFS keeps them cold. Pretty big difference in the profile on bufkit nam versus gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Kevin should be rooting for the CMC solution. Tolland jackpot. Leaving co-op in BB heading to BTV, Post it up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Clowns are gonna clown in these setups. Just beware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 12z Euro still meh compared to others but did ramp back up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z Euro still meh compared to others but did ramp back up Still on the milder side too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Euro with 6hr QPF from 6z-12z of 0.2" or so at ORH. Those flaccid rates aren't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Beware the warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 When does the AI Euro come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with 6hr QPF from 6z-12z of 0.2" or so at ORH. Those flaccid rates aren't helping. That’s not gonna get it done. Prob 1-2” of paste if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s not gonna get it done. Prob 1-2” of paste if that verifies. It beefed up from 00z, but bulk of QPF is SE of a KBOS-Ginxy line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s not gonna get it done. Prob 1-2” of paste if that verifies. Is the Euro gonna crap the bed this go around? Either it’s gonna be right, or the more juiced up models are on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s not gonna get it done. Prob 1-2” of paste if that verifies. With at least a quick glance, I'm a little shocked the Euro doesn't have more QPF during that window. Looks like it is just a tad later with blossoming things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is the Euro gonna crap the bed this go around? Either it’s gonna be right, or the more juiced up models are on to something. I just want to see the general trend continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Terrible news on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Is the Euro gonna crap the bed this go around? Either it’s gonna be right, or the more juiced up models are on to something. I think its more of a timing issue than anything else. The system is going to be juiced, its just a matter of how quickly does the precip shield blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 The bulk of the heavier precip falls in Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I just want to see the general trend continue Oh for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 12z EPS bumped up from 6z but not as much as I would like to see... 12z Euro has a nice cold shot in the long range again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: With at least a quick glance, I'm a little shocked the Euro doesn't have more QPF during that window. Looks like it is just a tad later with blossoming things? I’m always nervous about these late-blossoming precip shields. I made a comment a day or two ago in this thread how the precip shield is going to look ghastly until the last second. Tomorrow night around dinner time it’s going to look awful but then the stuff should really blossom…a lot of it will blossom in top of us too. But if that development is just a touch later then you are screwed and the bulk of QPF ends up east. Hopefully the short range guidance will get a good handle on it by tomorrow AM. But there’s def going to be a nowcast element to this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 one good thing out the 12z Euro is that the precip amount did increase over 6z so it is following the juiced trend like the other models, just a bit late with the timing but the trend is thereSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Pretty interesting...NAM warms BOS through the overnight and GFS keeps them cold. Pretty big difference in the profile on bufkit nam versus gfs Go NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m always nervous about these late-blossoming precip shields. I made a comment a day or two ago in this thread how the precip shield is going to look ghastly until the last second. Tomorrow night around dinner time it’s going to look awful but then the stuff should really blossom…a lot of it will blossom in top of us too. But if that development is just a touch later then you are screwed and the bulk of QPF ends up east. Hopefully the short range guidance will get a good handle on it by tomorrow AM. But there’s def going to be a nowcast element to this. Yeah these are certainly nail bitters. At least at this stage we have expectations for what will occur if the precip shield blossoms on the earlier side and what occurs if it happens to be on the later side. I think in terms of "gradient" from accumulation versus none is pretty set. along 84 is going to be iffy with little-to-any south and east of it. Not much else we can do at this stage with the blossoming aspect...nowcast for that like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m always nervous about these late-blossoming precip shields. I made a comment a day or two ago in this thread how the precip shield is going to look ghastly until the last second. Tomorrow night around dinner time it’s going to look awful but then the stuff should really blossom…a lot of it will blossom in top of us too. But if that development is just a touch later then you are screwed and the bulk of QPF ends up east. Hopefully the short range guidance will get a good handle on it by tomorrow AM. But there’s def going to be a nowcast element to this. It seems like everything the last few years has been a Nowcast in some way or another… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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