Dec 5-6th clipper threat

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha   ... snow on a sw wind?  what could go wrong -

 

Multiple levels of sw wind at that!

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is kind of warm in CT but gets the nrn ORH hills good. Looks like after 12z some areas could flip to snow and possible squalls on cold front.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip.

I think ORH county down to Kevin (or close to Kevin) are going to get a decent hit...thinking there will be a area of 4-6'' within that zone. SE of 84 still in line for at least mixing. Going to be a close call in the question mark spots...it may not take much to cool the sfc and just above given the precip rates.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Juicy.  My typical inclination is to lop off a bit of precip on the NAM... but who knows.  

[dryslot]

Nam is a bit warm along the coast and coastal plain here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ginx's area hit hard on the NAM

[weatherwiz]

I know the SW wind is concerning, but outside of the coast, I think I would hedge towards the colder guidance. If we were climbing into the lower 40's tomorrow inland I think it would be concerning but highs generally look mid 30's. You look too southwest across PA/NJ...that don't get much warmer. So its not like the SW wind is advecting in higher temperatures. Even the llvl warmth is shunted towards SE areas.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ginx's area hit hard on the NAM

It will be a struggle I think there. Even Kevin is on the line but he’s good for 2-4 I believe. Congrats on being “surprised” again.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be a struggle I think there. Even Kevin is on the line but he’s good for 2-4 I believe. Congrats on being “surprised” again.

You buy that much precip that the NAM is putting out?  I'm not worried about temps in my area... just the amount of water

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip.

Am I raining?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I know the SW wind is concerning, but outside of the coast, I think I would hedge towards the colder guidance. If we were climbing into the lower 40's tomorrow inland I think it would be concerning but highs generally look mid 30's. You look too southwest across PA/NJ...that don't get much warmer. So its not like the SW wind is advecting in higher temperatures. Even the llvl warmth is shunted towards SE areas.

Winds are south initially then go SW and that’s probably when Kevin flips.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Am I raining?

You may have some rain early in but I’d expect you to flip to snow pretty quick if you do. If you avoid rain in the first 2-3 hours of the steady stuff, you’re good. The profile cools after about midnight or 06z. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You buy that much precip that the NAM is putting out?  I'm not worried about temps in my area... just the amount of water

Maybe not, but it’s unstable aloft and could really help to wring it out. Plus SW flow is good for you. I’d like to see more confidence in guidance as we still have some variability.

[ORH_wxman]

3k actually has a pretty nice 2-3 hour burst of mod (perhaps briefly heavy) snow in eastern MA early Thursday. Metrowest could perhaps grab an inch or so during that if it verifies. 

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Am I raining?

 

[CoastalWx]

Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think.

[Modfan2]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k actually has a pretty nice 2-3 hour burst of mod (perhaps briefly heavy) snow in eastern MA early Thursday. Metrowest could perhaps grab an inch or so during that if it verifies. 

I think my valley location here might not fair well, but Ginxy just to my SE with Elevation might see some accumulation along with the hills just to my NW into Pomfret/Hampton and Woodstock 

[weatherwiz]

Thought we could see some intense snow squalls up north Thursday but there could be some decent upslope snows in VT

[weatherwiz]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds are south initially then go SW and that’s probably when Kevin flips.

Yeah I do think Kevin is going to be on the border initially and that will cut down on totals slightly for him. I'm with you on the 2-3'' for him but I don't think 4-5 can be ruled out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think.

Hope so. You know me and worrying.. coupled with the last few bad winters 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think.

Yes. This valley dweller is the one who should be worried.  

[weatherwiz]

Pretty decent ulvl divergence across the region and you have the nose of an increasing mlvl jet punching into the region along with a strengthening llvl flow (with core along/off the coast). Going to be some good moisture advection into the colder air coupled with enhanced lift from the divergence. We'll see how quickly this all blossoms but I like the NAM's idea of its wetness. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yes. This valley dweller is the one who should be worried.  

He’s sweating 2” vs 4”+ and I’m raining. My heart bleeds for him.  

[ineedsnow]

12z RGEM would make a lot of people happy beefed up big time .. best is south of here towards kevin

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

12z RGEM would make a lot of people happy beefed up big time .. best is south of here towards kevin

Ya it finally woke up.  Thats reassuring for many to see at least their first light accumulation this season. 

[CoastalWx]

I’ll sell the Reggie clowns here.

[ROOSTA]

Seems as though elevation will be a major player as in most early/late season events. Soundings are critical if one wants to know what type and how much in YBY. 

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Multiple levels of sw wind at that!

in fairness ...it's an unusual situation.  it's bit of a beautiful nick of timing thing.   if this ordeal hesitated for so much as a coffee break, we're +1c too warm all the way through the snow growth region of the sounding.  but as is, in the guidance, the speed of the flow is actually helping something for a change.  i mean this system overtakes the lower troposphere, which happens to be cold enough that there is a decently large drag coefficient and the system is overrunning it.  otherwise obviously the sw flow, sfc to aloft,   heh

[FXWX]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell the Reggie clowns here.

While I would remain cautious about some of increasing totals in this morning's short range guidance, there is a solid trend towards juicing this system up, as noted by Wiz... Probably going to be a 2-3 hour period of enhanced rates across parts of the region?