FXWX Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: haha ... snow on a sw wind? what could go wrong - Multiple levels of sw wind at that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Hrrr is kind of warm in CT but gets the nrn ORH hills good. Looks like after 12z some areas could flip to snow and possible squalls on cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip. I think ORH county down to Kevin (or close to Kevin) are going to get a decent hit...thinking there will be a area of 4-6'' within that zone. SE of 84 still in line for at least mixing. Going to be a close call in the question mark spots...it may not take much to cool the sfc and just above given the precip rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Juicy. My typical inclination is to lop off a bit of precip on the NAM... but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Nam is a bit warm along the coast and coastal plain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Ginx's area hit hard on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 I know the SW wind is concerning, but outside of the coast, I think I would hedge towards the colder guidance. If we were climbing into the lower 40's tomorrow inland I think it would be concerning but highs generally look mid 30's. You look too southwest across PA/NJ...that don't get much warmer. So its not like the SW wind is advecting in higher temperatures. Even the llvl warmth is shunted towards SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ginx's area hit hard on the NAM It will be a struggle I think there. Even Kevin is on the line but he’s good for 2-4 I believe. Congrats on being “surprised” again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It will be a struggle I think there. Even Kevin is on the line but he’s good for 2-4 I believe. Congrats on being “surprised” again. You buy that much precip that the NAM is putting out? I'm not worried about temps in my area... just the amount of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is dam snowy ORH county again. Kevin on the line, but does flip. Am I raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, weatherwiz said: I know the SW wind is concerning, but outside of the coast, I think I would hedge towards the colder guidance. If we were climbing into the lower 40's tomorrow inland I think it would be concerning but highs generally look mid 30's. You look too southwest across PA/NJ...that don't get much warmer. So its not like the SW wind is advecting in higher temperatures. Even the llvl warmth is shunted towards SE areas. Winds are south initially then go SW and that’s probably when Kevin flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Am I raining? You may have some rain early in but I’d expect you to flip to snow pretty quick if you do. If you avoid rain in the first 2-3 hours of the steady stuff, you’re good. The profile cools after about midnight or 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You buy that much precip that the NAM is putting out? I'm not worried about temps in my area... just the amount of water Maybe not, but it’s unstable aloft and could really help to wring it out. Plus SW flow is good for you. I’d like to see more confidence in guidance as we still have some variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3k actually has a pretty nice 2-3 hour burst of mod (perhaps briefly heavy) snow in eastern MA early Thursday. Metrowest could perhaps grab an inch or so during that if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Am I raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3k actually has a pretty nice 2-3 hour burst of mod (perhaps briefly heavy) snow in eastern MA early Thursday. Metrowest could perhaps grab an inch or so during that if it verifies. I think my valley location here might not fair well, but Ginxy just to my SE with Elevation might see some accumulation along with the hills just to my NW into Pomfret/Hampton and Woodstock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Thought we could see some intense snow squalls up north Thursday but there could be some decent upslope snows in VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winds are south initially then go SW and that’s probably when Kevin flips. Yeah I do think Kevin is going to be on the border initially and that will cut down on totals slightly for him. I'm with you on the 2-3'' for him but I don't think 4-5 can be ruled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think. Hope so. You know me and worrying.. coupled with the last few bad winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin, I agree with Will. I think you’re good overall. Stop worrying and enjoy what falls. Maybe not the jack, but it will be nice event where you are I think. Yes. This valley dweller is the one who should be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Pretty decent ulvl divergence across the region and you have the nose of an increasing mlvl jet punching into the region along with a strengthening llvl flow (with core along/off the coast). Going to be some good moisture advection into the colder air coupled with enhanced lift from the divergence. We'll see how quickly this all blossoms but I like the NAM's idea of its wetness. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yes. This valley dweller is the one who should be worried. He’s sweating 2” vs 4”+ and I’m raining. My heart bleeds for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 12z RGEM would make a lot of people happy beefed up big time .. best is south of here towards kevin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, ineedsnow said: 12z RGEM would make a lot of people happy beefed up big time .. best is south of here towards kevin Ya it finally woke up. Thats reassuring for many to see at least their first light accumulation this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 I’ll sell the Reggie clowns here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Seems as though elevation will be a major player as in most early/late season events. Soundings are critical if one wants to know what type and how much in YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 31 minutes ago, FXWX said: Multiple levels of sw wind at that! in fairness ...it's an unusual situation. it's bit of a beautiful nick of timing thing. if this ordeal hesitated for so much as a coffee break, we're +1c too warm all the way through the snow growth region of the sounding. but as is, in the guidance, the speed of the flow is actually helping something for a change. i mean this system overtakes the lower troposphere, which happens to be cold enough that there is a decently large drag coefficient and the system is overrunning it. otherwise obviously the sw flow, sfc to aloft, heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll sell the Reggie clowns here. While I would remain cautious about some of increasing totals in this morning's short range guidance, there is a solid trend towards juicing this system up, as noted by Wiz... Probably going to be a 2-3 hour period of enhanced rates across parts of the region? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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