weatherwiz Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Given the SW llvl flow and WAA...I think it's pretty telling that the NAM even keeps mostly everyone except far southeast areas at or below 0 at 925. I haven't looked at any soundings yet so there could be some sneaky warm layers within the llvls but I think the Euro is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Given the SW llvl flow and WAA...I think it's pretty telling that the NAM even keeps mostly everyone except far southeast areas at or below 0 at 925. I haven't looked at any soundings yet so there could be some sneaky warm layers within the llvls but I think the Euro is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth there. This event has fairly steep low level lapse rates so the source of warmth will be from ground-upward. Not a situation where we have elevated warm layers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It is def warmer than GFS...but still likely cold enough for the areas we were already talking about in the interior from near Kevin up through ORH hills. looks a little precarious for metro west though .. would feel a lot better being on the other side of 290/190 I guess my concern is that if we don't end up with decent rates with torched low lvls, ends up being 33-34 with a slushy inch or something - the classic case where I end up with 1.2" and Winter Hill is a winter wonderland pulling 5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This event has fairly steep low level lapse rates so the source of warmth will be from ground-upward. Not a situation where we have elevated warm layers. Finally checked out some soundings. Outside of areas south and east of 84 and especially closer to the coast, I don't think warmth at the sfc is going to ne enough to cause concern. Perhaps initially its a mixed ptype, but seems like good upward vertical motion crosses much of, if not, the entire region. Even BDL I think could be in line for 2'' from this. GFS has a good 2-3 hour period of moderate snow at BDL. Something to really watch for Wednesday will be the wet bulbs...looks like wet bulb temps will be into the upper 20's or so. Should have room to cool down to the wet bulb during the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 925 0C has been over my head since late 2022. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Just so you know, any snow is good snow. First flakes are magical. Now hoping trillions fall upon y'all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 925 gets dicey for you Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 OT, but cool snowricane over SW Michigan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Great I think you'll be ok. Enjoy it, as I'll enjoy another bag of dicks over my face from mother nature. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you'll be ok. Enjoy it, as I'll enjoy another bag of dicks over my face from mother nature. Lol.. let’s hope the colder solutions with heavier burst of snow can carry right to the coast . Sometimes these can do that especially since it’s at night . Until it’s imminent here , I’m still nervous something will go wrong . We shook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think you'll be ok. Enjoy it, as I'll enjoy another bag of dicks over my face from mother nature. I hear they're delicious: www.dickspotatochips.com 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 18z NAM juiced up quite a bit. Esp CT into central MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Nam seems to lean towards the 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Yeah that's probably 3-4" in the high spots accounting for some precip wasted in wet bulbing. 3K is funny. Snow on the Merrit Pkwy and rains to Maines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM juiced up quite a bit. Esp CT into central MA. Yeah, we’d sign for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 The NAM is warmer again. 40F isotherm now up to PSM, during the heaviest precip and dews are up in the mid 30's so wet bulbin' ain't happenin'. I have a better shot of registering AN temp than accumulating snow at this point. I'm wayyy out of this one. Enjoy far interior folks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Wednesday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. South wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely before 7am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 7am and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Wednesday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 27. South wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely before 7am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 7am and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Should be good there. We envy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 One positive thing on the nam is a sharper s/w. Almost slows precip as it exits. Temps 925-950 drop, so inside 495 to 128 could get some snow after like 6-7a Thursday. That’s when maybe I’ll see flakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 BOX was thinking 3-6 highest elevations ORH county and Berks. 6 seems like everything has to go right. But 3-4 with maybe spot 5s doable there. Still seems unusually juicy on the models given Synoptics, but perhaps some instability aloft is helping given the s/w approaching. Good luck to those snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Then there’s Reggie with continued paltry output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Then there’s Reggie with continued paltry output. ICON beefed up a bit at 18z.. I'm sure the Reggie will do the same at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 GYX early map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One positive thing on the nam is a sharper s/w. Almost slows precip as it exits. Temps 925-950 drop, so inside 495 to 128 could get some snow after like 6-7a Thursday. That’s when maybe I’ll see flakes here. Yeah its almost an anafront type setup if you sharpen the shortwave....you get developing precip parallel to the flow on the cold side of the boundary. Hopefully that's a trend that increases as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 I'm right on the edge of good snow and some rain/mixed. I'll take 3 and be happy for first of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 18z GFS still really croaking Kevin up through ORH county. Even central CT would do pretty well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 The ratios seem like they would have to be super high to get much more than 3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The ratios seem like they would have to be super high to get much more than 3-4”. Your area and other higher terrain in the deep interior could get decent ratios....some of the guidance has good snow growth and if you're pulling a 31F sfc temp, then you'll get 10 to 1 or better. I think the skeptical part of me is more questioning whether a half inch of liquid actually falls versus something like a quarter inch or 3 tenths. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z GFS still really croaking Kevin up through ORH county. Even central CT would do pretty well. If this works out as modeled.. amounts from higher elevations of Tolland and Windham counties up to Hunch and Ineedsnow will be highest and very similar . Big if of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If this works out as modeled.. amounts from higher elevations of Tolland and Windham counties up to Hunch and Ineedsnow will be highest and very similar . Big if of course. Yeah your area up through N ORH County on the west side of the spine is where I'd favor right now for best accumulations....assuming you don't have any issues with 925-950mb temps but I think you're far enough NW to avoid any significant problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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