December 2024

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

In December 2010 MJO was in 4,5,6 and it was a cold snowy month..It was supposed to be warm this week it's not..Really stop looking at these 2 to 3 week long range forecasts..they are usually wrong,

but the operational models are saying it might be warm 16 days from now!

[Stormlover74]

.A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR CENTRAL WARREN...NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH...CARBON...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

 

At 403 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Columbia to near New Mahoning, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility associated with intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds leading to blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 35 mph.

[Tatamy]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

.A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR CENTRAL WARREN...NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH...CARBON...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

 

At 403 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Columbia to near New Mahoning, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility associated with intense bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds leading to blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 35 mph.

I saw that and there is some really heavy snow coming down along the Tpke at tunnel near Lehighton.  Waiting to see how much of that makes it down here or into western/NW NJ

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I saw that and there is some really heavy snow coming down along the Tpke at tunnel near Lehighton.  Waiting to see how much of that makes it down here or into western/NW NJ

Looks potent just south of the DWG

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

In December 2010 MJO was in 4,5,6 and it was a cold snowy month..It was supposed to be warm this week it's not..Really stop looking at these 2 to 3 week long range forecasts..they are usually wrong,

10-11 had record NAO blocking in a perfect spot for us. No indication that will be happening this time. Again I’m not a total doomer saying it’ll never snow again, but this winter looks like it’ll have the same flavor as the last two where the Pacific jet dominates, with relatively brief periods like this where it’s cooler and we need to make something happen. In Walt’s snow thread I predicted about 50% normal snow which is better than the last 2. I’ll be thrilled if somehow I’m wrong and it does produce. 

[vegan_edible]

so is this about the point where we all start tweaking out or should we give it another week?

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. 

This is one of the reasons that the last 9 winters here have had an average temperature the equivalent of what Northern Virginia used to have from 1981-2010.

[donsutherland1]

The most recent guidance is suggesting that even as the first 10 days of December will be unseasonably cold, the cold won't be as significant as on the earlier guidance. Nevertheless, on account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. Significant lake effect snow remains likely.

The pattern will likely be a fairly quiet one. As a result, the Washington, DC to New York City area likely won't see any appreciable snowfall during the first two weeks of December. However, a clipper system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region late tomorrow into Thursday. A snow squall is possible in parts of the area as the cold air rushes back into the region behind the clipper. It is possible that New York City could see a coating of snow.

The post-clipper cold shot will be fairly shortlived. Milder air will return to the region to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week. The latest ECMWF weeklies have moved into agreement with the CFSv2 in showing generally above normal temperatures through much of the remainder of December. Beyond two weeks, skill scores are low, so the persistent warmth isn't cast in stone just yet.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +19.77 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.033 today.

 

[NEG NAO]

48 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

but the operational models are saying it might be warm 16 days from now!

"Operational weather models just another ensemble member" means that a standard, single weather forecast produced by a typical operational model can be considered as just one possible outcome within a larger group of forecasts generated by an ensemble prediction system, where each individual forecast is considered an "ensemble member" representing a slightly different scenario based on slightly varied initial conditions; essentially, the operational model is treated as if it were one of many different potential forecasts within a broader range of possibilities. 

[North and West]

11 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

so is this about the point where we all start tweaking out or should we give it another week?

my brother in christ, we should never stop tweaking

[gravitylover]

I've got pretty heavy snow falling now. Even the street was covered quickly.

[Tatamy]

Mt. Holly’s Snow Squall warning verified (minus the wind).  We have 0.5” new.  That’s probably more than what we will see tomorrow night and Thursday.

[vegan_edible]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

my brother in christ, we should never stop tweaking

im always tweaking 

[ForestHillWx]

The misses reports snow at the homestead. 

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The misses reports snow at the homestead. 

Had a "burst" of heavier flurries here about 45 minutes ago.  Was just starting to whiten the deck and the flurries ended.

[North and West]

The misses reports snow at the homestead. 

Family going out to look at the snow near our cabin



.

[SACRUS]

 

NYC: T of snow

[Cfa]

Graupel on the ground. I didn’t see it fall.

[Allsnow]

 

[winterwx21]

Getting a snow shower here right now with some gusty winds. Nice to see. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Getting a snow shower here right now with some gusty winds. Nice to see. 

Looks To be coming directly for Metuchen. Let’s us know how it goes for you 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 

60s on the GFS. Love it

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks To be coming directly for Metuchen. Let’s us know how it goes for you 

No accumulation but it came down moderately for a few minutes. Nice snow shower. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

No accumulation but it came down moderately for a few minutes. Nice snow shower. 

Has that feel tonight of a classic snowstorm heading up the coast. Unfortunately, those days have been missing since Jan 2022 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

Damn we're taking that wind advisory seriously 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Has that feel tonight of a classic snowstorm heading up the coast. Unfortunately, those days have been missing since Jan 2022 

That was our last month with an average temperature below freezing and above normal snowfall thanks to the MJO 8.

[Cfa]

Snowing moderately in Yaphank.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Good. If it won’t snow, useless cold (which isn’t even that cold) is just that. 

What about freezing ponds for skating, or making snow on the slopes?