December 2024

[ForestHillWx]

When did you take a picture of my house? Didn’t know you were in town…

[Stormlover74]

The wind Thursday will probably be the bigger story since these events have been overperforming lately. At least advisory level

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The wind Thursday will probably be the bigger story since these events have been overperforming lately. At least advisory level

Any event with south winds near the coast this time of year is a no-go for snow prospects. Inland where the wind isn’t directly off the water might have a chance. Steep lapse rates like Bluewave showed are conducive for strong wind gusts so maybe we can get some decent squalls with that. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s

 

 

I think city west it could.  East probably no as the SW flow has enough component off the water to warm the BL, the 3K NAM shows that well with snow in western queens but once you get east of there its rain.  Looks like most areas will be sitting around 38/26-28 or so at the time so its close.  We also are depending on that little area of energy generating that area of precip

[psv88]

22 this morning 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s

 

HRRR says you have to go well to the NW to see any accumulation. RGEM doesn't give our area anything as well. I would lean towards those models instead of the crazy NAM models, but of course you never know for sure. Still something to keep an eye on. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR says you have to go well to the NW to see any accumulation. RGEM doesn't give our area anything as well. I would lean towards those models instead of the crazy NAM models, but of course you never know for sure. Still something to keep an eye on. 

Temps are just too warm ahead of the front near the coast. We'll need to get a squall Thursday morning

[winterwx21]

Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 

[SACRUS]

 

Cold period (so far)

EWR: 

Dec 1:  39 / 24 (-10)
Dec 2:  42 / 25 (-8)
 

 

NYC:

DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10)
DEC 2:  39 / 29 (-9)
 

[North and West]

287 gang is ready at the homestead
 

Dearest vegan_edible —

The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call.

I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned.


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[North and West]

Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 

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[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

Dearest vegan_edible —

The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call.

I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned.


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best reply award

[cleetussnow]

18 minutes ago, North and West said:

Dearest vegan_edible —

The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call.

I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned.


.

Battleground moved up to i84 with cc :-)

[North and West]

Battleground moved up to i84 with cc :-)

I-84? That’s like Hadrian’s Wall.


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[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, North and West said:

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Not sure why I got a couple weenies for that one, lol. Tuesday looks like at least mid 50s here. They'll see how warm it gets early next week. 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

best reply award

No one beat Don Draper from the NYCWEATHER board.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 

Good. If it won’t snow, useless cold (which isn’t even that cold) is just that. 

[Uniblab]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 

I'll be looking forward to it. 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Dearest vegan_edible —

The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call.

I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned.


.

Well said…… For the inner city coastal plain, it’s never easy. As always ….

 

[Allsnow]

Earthlight about to call It 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Earthlight about to call It 

 

 

 

But Bamwx said...

[North and West]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Earthlight about to call It 

 

 

 

Winter over on December 3 is better than other years, so we have that going for us. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

But Bamwx said...

Bam has been solid up until this winter. I’m not sure why they’re holding on to this cold pattern locking in 

[North and West]

Earthlight about to call It 
 
 
 

One thing I’ll say is that we truly don’t know. We just have trends and favorability one way or another, each and every year.

Obvious disclaimer is that I have no background or idea in what I’m talking about, but if someone can write off a season or something a month or two from now, then well God bless them. It’s the same old song every year.


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[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bam has been solid up until this winter. I’m not sure why they’re holding on to this cold pattern locking in 

From 13-14 to 11-12 in 2 days

[uofmiami]

 

 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Earthlight about to call It 

 

 

 

This has been the repeating theme over the last 9 winters. Longer range models underestimate the forcing in the MJO 4-7 regions. So they start out too cold for our area and then shift warmer the closer we get to the forecast period. 

New run stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent 

Old run was underestimating the forcing there

 

 

[Roger Smith]

I would expect a few fast-moving squalls of hail and then snow after frontal passage Thursday, temps peaking at 45F before front passes, and a fast drop to 30F by evening. Winds gusting to 45 mph. 

A milder spell Sunday to midweek with a peak temp near 60F then a week or so close to mid-Dec normals in 40s. Signs of a colder reload near end of GFS 12z. Overall the month could hang on to a negative departure if there is in fact a later reload. 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been the repeating theme over the last 9 winters. Longer range models underestimate the forcing in the MJO 4-7 regions. So they start out too cold for our area and then shift warmer the closer we get to the forecast period. 

New run stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent 

Old run was underestimating the forcing there

 

 

Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. 

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. 

In December 2010 MJO was in 4,5,6 and it was a cold snowy month..It was supposed to be warm this week it's not..Really stop looking at these 2 to 3 week long range forecasts..they are usually wrong,