December 2024

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Two +20° departure days in a row will really reduce the monthly cold departures we built up through last week.

 

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
142 AM EST MON DEC 30 2024

...................................

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 29 2024...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         65    259 PM  71    1984  42     23       57       
  MINIMUM         46    808 AM  -2    1933  28     18       46       
  AVERAGE         56                        35     21       52     

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 30 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         59    127 PM  63    1984  41     18       47       
  MINIMUM         55    731 AM  -8    1933  28     27       37       
  AVERAGE         57                        35     22       42     

hmm I really thought today would be warmer than yesterday

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Most people would rather have the warmth and sunshine if it's not going to snow.

NYC hit 70 in December 1984 too before it got down to -2 in January on the Reagan inauguration.  No snow though, that winter absolutely sucked.

We had snow (24.1" at central park).In fact we had it right after Christmas which was odd since it hit 70 with snow on the ground

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and no changeover even though it cut across Long Island!

Why aren't more storms like this?

It was in a generally cold environment and it was small enough in areal extent that it wasn’t able to bring a lot of warm air into it. It was a small fire crack of a system that happened to blow over our area-it didn’t have a long lead time coming from well to our south. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We had snow (24.1" at central park).In fact we had it right after Christmas which was odd since it hit 70 with snow on the ground

there were a few winters like that in the 80s.  No above average snowfall winters and definitely no HECS after February 1983 but a lot of moderate or smaller snowfalls that nickled and dimed us to just below average snowfall winters.  I bet a lot of people would be happy with a 20-25 inch snowfall winter with the maximum snowfall in any one storm being 4-6 inches.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It was in a generally cold environment and it was small enough in areal extent that it wasn’t able to bring a lot of warm air into it. It was a small fire crack of a system that happened to blow over our area-it didn’t have a long lead time coming from well to our south. 

almost sounds like a hybrid subtropical system.

 

[SACRUS]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it never hit 68 there either

I think they adjusted or will down to 64, Don had a high of 60 but i dont see that anywhere, i saw 64 as inter high prior to the calibration issues.

[bluewave]

Even slightly colder Decembers like this one are still close to 40° around NYC since 2011.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	41.4	41.4
2024	38.6	38.6
2023	44.3	44.3
2022	38.7	38.7
2021	45.0	45.0
2020	40.9	40.9
2019	38.9	38.9
2018	40.5	40.5
2017	36.2	36.2
2016	40.3	40.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.6	40.6
2013	38.2	38.2
2012	42.7	42.7
2011	43.3	43.3

[uofmiami]

8 hours ago, SACRUS said:

I think they adjusted or will down to 64, Don had a high of 60 but i dont see that anywhere, i saw 64 as inter high prior to the calibration issues.

Daily climo report for that day had 60 for the high.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[bluewave]

The 7 station December average is currently at -0.9 which will be a little smaller after the 50° warmth today is factored in.

EWR…-0.5

NYC….-1.3

JFK…..+0.6

LGA….-1.6

HPN….-0.8

BDR….-1.6

ISP…..-0.9

AVG….-0.9

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even slightly colder Decembers like this one are still close to 40° around NYC since 2011.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	41.4	41.4
2024	38.6	38.6
2023	44.3	44.3
2022	38.7	38.7
2021	45.0	45.0
2020	40.9	40.9
2019	38.9	38.9
2018	40.5	40.5
2017	36.2	36.2
2016	40.3	40.3
2015	50.8	50.8
2014	40.6	40.6
2013	38.2	38.2
2012	42.7	42.7
2011	43.3	43.3

Chris are the SST still around 50?

The Polar Bear Club won't be shivering this year! 

 

Record high New Years SST !!

[SACRUS]

53 / 31 in what will be the warmest day of the next 10 to 2 weeks potentially.  0.50 widespread tonight.

 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Daily climo report for that day had 60 for the high.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

thanks.  Wonder if it missed any inter hour highs.  

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1965) 
NYC: 63 (1965)
LGA: 63 (1965)
JFK: 55 (2011) 


Lows:

EWR: 2 (1962)
NYC: -7 (1917)
LGA: 3 (1962)
JFK: 5 (1962)

HIstorical:

 

1876: A heavy snowstorm hit southern Arkansas, with amounts well over 20 inches in places. 28 inches was reported near Warren, and 24–28 inches was reported at Arkansas City.

 

1882: Downtown San Francisco saw 3.5 inches of snow.

1917 - The temperature at Lewisburg, WV, plunged to 37 degrees below zero to set a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1929 - Greenland Ranch, in Death Valley, California, went the entire year without measurable precipitation. (The Weather Channel)

1933 - A 24 hourrainfall of 7.36 inches set the stage for the worst flood in Los Angeles history. Flooding claimed 44 lives. (David Ludlum)

1933: During the last week of December, a series of winter storms pounded the mountainside with 12 inches of rain near Los Angeles. More rain occurred on New Year’s Eve, including 4.86 inches in downtown Los Angeles. The 4.86 inches is currently the fourth most rainfall to occur in one day in downtown Los Angeles since 1877. Around midnight, hillsides in at least three mountain locations collapsed sending millions of tons of mud and debris into the Crescenta Valley neighborhoods below. Crescenta Valley is a few miles north of Los Angeles. This mudslide destroyed more than 400 homes. Following the disaster, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the County of Los Angeles built a flood control system of catch basins, and concrete storm drains, designed to prevent a repeat of the 1934 disaster. The Historical Society of the Crescenta Valley has a few “Then and Now” photos from this event.

1941 - Snow which began on New Year's Eve became a major blizzard on New Year's Day, burying Des Moines, IA, uunder 19.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1947 - A late afternoon tornado touched down 10 miles north of Shreveport LA, and dissipated south of El Dorado AR. The tornado, as much as 400 yards in width, killed 18 persons. It damaged or destroyed two thirds of the structures at Cotton Valley LA. (The Weather Channel)

1962 - Perhaps the worst blizzard in the history of the state of Maine finally came to an end. The storm produced 40 inches in 24 hours at Orono, and a total of 46 inches at Ripogenus Dam. Gale force winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high around Bangor. A disastrous icestorm was over Georgia and South Carolina. It ravaged the two states for days causing more than seven million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1963 - A snowstorm struck the Deep South. Meridian, MS, received 15 inches of snow, 10.5 inches blanketed Bay St Louis MS, and 4.5 inches fell at New Orleans LA. Freezing temperatures then prevailed for New Year's Day. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: The kickoff temperature for the NFL Championship Game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers was -13°F with a wind chill of -36°F. This game is known as the “Ice Bowl.”

1987 - Torrential rains caused extensive flash flooding over eastern sections of the island of Ohau in Hawaii, resulting in many rock and mud slides. Rainfall totals ranged up to 22.89 inches in a 24 hour period, and property damage was estimated at 35 million dollars. Strong winds continued to usher arctic cold into the north central U.S. The temperature at Alexandria MN remained below zero through the day, and Jamestown ND reported a wind chill reading of 58 degrees below zero. Gales lashed the Great Lakes, with wind gusts to 54 mph reported at Lansing MI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Warm and wet weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Six cities in Florida reported record high temperatures for the date. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - The year and decade ended on a soggy note in the eastern U.S. Thunderstorm rains pushed precipitation totals for the year to 88.32 inches at Baton Rouge, and to 75.37 inches at Huntsville AL, establishing all-time records for those two locations. Dry weather continued in California. Sacramento and San Francisco finished the month without any rain or snow, and Santa Maria reported their driest year of record with just 3.30 inches of precipitation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2000: The “Snow Bowl” was played between Mississippi St and Texas A&M at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana. Snow began about a half hour before kickoff and didn’t stop until well after the bowl game.

2010 - Unusually warm air fueled strong storms in the midwestern and southern U.S., producing high winds and a preliminary count of 53 tornadoes across five states. At least eight people were killed in Missouri and Arkansas and dozens of others were injured. In Mississippi, about 200 people were evacuated from the Jackson-Evers International Airport, where an EF-2 tornado crossed a runway. (NCDC)

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

53 / 31 in what will be the warmest day of the next 10 to 2 weeks potentially.  0.50 widespread tonight.

 

My guess is some places make a run at 60 again depending on arrival of clouds 

[SACRUS]

 

Warmup daily departures

EWR:

12/28: 48 / 38 (+8)
12/29: 65 / 46 (+21)
12/30: 59 / 44 (+17)

[uofmiami]

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

thanks.  Wonder if it missed any inter hour highs.  

It's possible but with the sensor having malfunctioned we may never know.  CF6 also lists 60 for the high that day.

[SACRUS]

 

Rain to western PA

 

[donsutherland1]

December is closing on a warmer than normal note, but a big change toward sustained colder weather lies ahead for January.

The pattern will likely become more favorable for light or moderate snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. The second and third weeks of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in parts of that region, particularly the Southeast. Overall, January will likely be colder than normal in such cities as Philadelphia and New York City.

Should the AO dive below -3.000, which now appears likely, the prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area could be reduced. Since 1950, a January AO ranging from -2.600 to -1.400 accounted for the largest share of 6" and 10" or above January snowfalls for storms that dumped 4" or more snow in New York City. For the 4" or above storms, 67% saw 6" or more while 56% went on to see 10" or more. When the AO was -3.000 or below, 60% of 4" or above snowstorms saw 6" or more snowfall, while 20% of those storms saw 10" or more. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to determining whether that potential will be realized.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will set new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.9"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 12.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome was favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. Even as the NAO outlook appears on course to be relatively accurate, Winter 2024-2025 will likely wind up being notably colder than the subset of winters listed above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -7.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.855 today.

 

[Roger Smith]

New Year's greetings to all ... forecast contest will continue but in one annual mega-thread for all of 2025, same location ... I note 3/5 NYC regulars have already posted, hoping to see everyone and even a few new participants ...

I was actually in the NYC metro for the record warm NYE-NYD 1965-66, I had relatives living in Clark Township (Rahway) NJ and recall standing outside in pouring rain and occasional thunder near midnight and it was close to 65 F. Even "back home" in Ontario I learned on return it was near 60F at midnight setting two daily records (58, 57) at Toronto that are still in existence also. As some will recall, a good stretch of cold and snow followed in late Jan 1966 and it became very mild again around Feb 10 setting more records. We had 17" of snow on Jan 23rd and there was a blizzard on the east coast a few days later. We also saw 17" of snow on Feb 25, 1965 (previous winter), I believe it was a wind-rain event in NYC. I was a high school student with a home weather station, and no way to connect with other weather enthusiasts pre-internet. I don't know how any there were, probably a few from what I gather reading this forum. 

If I knew then what I know now, I would know now what I knew then. 

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

Going back to tonight’s system there’s a really interesting look to the radar right now to my south in the Philly area.  The echos look to be convective in nature as they race off to the north ahead of the main band of rain.  Big time squall line moving onto the eastern shore.  Partly cloudy here with some stars visible.

[IrishRob17]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Going back to tonight’s system there’s a really interesting look to the radar right now to my south in the Philly area.  The echos look to be convective in nature as they race off to the north ahead of the main band of rain.  Big time squall line moving onto the eastern shore.  Partly cloudy here with some stars visible.

Mesoscale Discussion 2324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312356Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will spread northeastward through the evening. Small to marginally severe hail and locally gusty winds remain possible. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out near the Delmarva region.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster is moving northeastward across parts of eastern MD/VA early this evening, in association with a strong midlevel shortwave trough and 1000 mb surface low moving across the Mid Atlantic region. The northern portion of this cluster appears to be outpacing the northward return of modest surface-based instability, but increasing elevated moisture and buoyancy will help to maintain the cluster as it approaches DE and southern NJ. MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg and strong effective shear will continue to support organized convection.

Small to marginally severe hail will continue to be possible with both the ongoing cluster and with elevated storms developing ahead of the cluster, due to cold temperatures aloft (below -20C at 500 mb) associated with the shortwave trough. Increasing low-level stability may tend to limit the severe-wind threat with northeastward extent, though locally strong/damaging gusts may accompany the more organized convective elements, especially from southern NJ into the Delmarva. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out where convection remains near-surface-based, especially near the Delmarva where the southern portion of the ongoing cluster will intercept modestly increasing MLCAPE.

..Dean/Bunting.. 12/31/2024
 

[Stormlover74]

Thundering 

[Tatamy]

Loud booming thunder here for New Years Eve

[dmillz25]

Raining here with thunder and lightning 

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here

[JonClaw]

Ending the year on a thunderstorm is pretty cool. 

[Phillycane]

It wouldn’t be winter in NYC without some thunderstorm action! 

[dseagull]

Absolutely insane storm here on barnegat bay.  Worst storm since April 1st 2023 when I had to rescue stranded boaters before the line of tornadic storms.  

[cardinalland]

thunder on NYE un-fuckin-believable

[dseagull]

Then.....