December 2024

[psv88]

58 today and areas pushing 60, including NYC, as Bluewave called it. People knock him for leaning warm but he verifies more often than not. 
 

good call!

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

58 today and areas pushing 60, including NYC, as Bluewave called it. People knock him for leaning warm but he verifies more often than not. 
 

good call!

He's a realist when it comes to weather. People may not like it, especially during winter but it verifies most of the time. 

[winterwx21]

66 degrees here! Nice to have some very warm weather before the cold pattern settles in. 

[Stormlover74]

As Mt Holly reminds us:

Some spots are flirting with record highs right now, but not the Delaware Valley and southern NJ stations, where records today are well into the 70s thanks to this date in 1984. For those bemoaning the warmth, just 3 weeks later on January 21 1985, temps plunged well below zero.

[Rjay]

NYC breaks record for 68 degree temp drop in one hour

 

 

[qg_omega]

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

58 today and areas pushing 60, including NYC, as Bluewave called it. People knock him for leaning warm but he verifies more often than not. 
 

good call!

NYC is 70 degrees?

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

NYC breaks record for 68 degree temp drop in one hour

 

 

I saw the 68 degrees and thought it was a misprint. If it now says zero, I guess their having some issues.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

58 today and areas pushing 60, including NYC, as Bluewave called it. People knock him for leaning warm but he verifies more often than not. 
 

good call!

Not really. He is very knowledgeable but leans warm too much. He had record warmth for xmas week

 

That said, it is a beautiful day at Giants Stadium

[SACRUS]

 

67 here - 

 

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Not really. He is very knowledgeable but leans warm too much. He had record warmth for xmas week

 

That said, it is a beautiful day at Giants Stadium

We're finishing the year with 9 or 10 months above the already adjusted for warming rolling average - until/unless that changes it makes sense to lean warm.   

[Dark Star]

Wow, from a forecasted mid 50s to an actual 65 degrees!

[wdrag]

Heading for some 10's as BlueWave noted a few days ago. Already many 8"s on LI since 11/20. if interested click for clarity.  

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Not really. He is very knowledgeable but leans warm too much. He had record warmth for xmas week

 

That said, it is a beautiful day at Giants Stadium

 

That isn’t correct. I had a back and forth temperature pattern for this month. The only warm up that I highlighted back in late November and early December was the 55°+ day which occurred on the 17th. All I said about the cooldown before Christmas was that it probably wouldn’t be a cold as the one in 2022 for NYC which was correct. But commented on the similar timing both years. Then I was discussing that the warm up this week would probably wait until closer to the New Year. I said probably over 50° but it came in a little earlier and was around 10° warmer in spots. My guess for this month for the 7 station average was -1 to +1. So my forecast for this month wasn’t that warm compared to what the final will be. The reason you think I may lean too warm is related to the fact that most of the time we have actually been much warmer than normal. Since portions of the northeast have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest month. So it’s the actual pattern which has been warm and I have just been describing what has been happening.

[donsutherland1]

Today was an unseasonably mild day in the Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 63°
Baltimore: 65°
Bridgeport: 56°
Islip: 56°
New York City: 60°
Newark: 65°
Norfolk: 72°
Philadelphia: 66°
Reading: 65° (old record: 64°, 1982)
Richmond: 69°
Trenton: 65°
Washington, DC: 67°

December will close with above to much above normal temperatures and additional periods of rain. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder.

Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern will likely become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. The second week of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in that region.

Should the AO dive below -3.000, the prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area could be reduced. Since 1950, a January AO ranging from -2.600 to -1.400 accounted for the largest share of 6" and 10" or above January snowfalls for storms that dumped 4" or more snow in New York City. For the 4" or above storms, 67% saw 6" or more while 56% went on to see 10" or more. When the AO was -3.000 or below, 60% of 4" or above snowstorms saw 6" or more snowfall, while 20% of those storms saw 10" or more. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to determining whether that potential will be realized.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will set new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.9"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 12.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome was favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. Even as the NAO outlook appears on course to be relatively accurate, Winter 2024-2025 will likely wind up being notably colder than the subset of winters listed above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +3.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (1.1° below normal).

[psv88]

58 today. Beautiful 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That isn’t correct. I had a back and forth temperature pattern for this month. The only warm up that I highlighted back in late November and early December was the 55°+ day which occurred on the 17th. All I said about the cooldown before Christmas was that it probably wouldn’t be a cold as the one in 2022 for NYC which was correct. But commented on the similar timing both years. Then I was discussing that the warm up this week would probably wait until closer to the New Year. I said probably over 50° but it came in a little earlier and was around 10° warmer in spots. My guess for this month for the 7 station average was -1 to +1. So my forecast for this month wasn’t that warm compared to what the final will be. The reason you think I may lean too warm is related to the fact that most of the time we have actually been much warmer than normal. Since portions of the northeast have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest month. So it’s the actual pattern which has been warm and I have just been describing what has been happening.

If there is a warm up coming, a potential storm, or a potential marginal event you lean warm.

MJO leans cold.

All Snow is somewhere between

Snowman19 is warmer than you.

 

when you stick around long enough, you get to know peoples posts and their biases.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

New Brnswck: 67
PHL: 66
EWR: 65
TTN: 65
BLM: 63
ACY: 63
TEB: 61
LGA: 60
JFK: 57
ISP: 56

NYC: ?? 64 likely reading

[Volcanic Winter]

Topped out at 62.3 here at the Toms River / Manchester border. 
 

Dec averaging 35.2 right now. 

[SACRUS]

 

Still 60 holding at midnight here S-SE winds and light rain.  It may be 50 degrees colder in 7 dats  next weekend.

[Rjay]

10 hours ago, lee59 said:

I saw the 68 degrees and thought it was a misprint. If it now says zero, I guess their having some issues.

I see no issues

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I see no issues

 

They really have to cut those trees…

[gravitylover]

I'm kinda surprised at how low the rain total is, it poured for a long time and it looks like it only added up to .6. 

[nycwinter]

overnight bust with rainfall totals that was expected..

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

If there is a warm up coming, a potential storm, or a potential marginal event you lean warm.

MJO leans cold.

All Snow is somewhere between

Snowman19 is warmer than you.

 

when you stick around long enough, you get to know peoples posts and their biases.

 

 

 

 

The only thing I lean on is what I think the actual pattern will be. But colder patterns have been few and far between over the last decade. So it may seem to you that me reporting this is a bias. But it’s the actual pattern which has been biased warm. When we have had really cold patterns over this interval I was there.  

[Allsnow]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

I see no issues

 

 

[bluewave]

The mid 60s in NJ yesterday turned out to be a top 5 warmest for December 26th to 31st. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending…warmest Dec 26th to 31st

1	1984-12-31	71	0
2	1982-12-31	68	0
3	2008-12-31	66	0
4	2024-12-31	65	2
5	1964-12-31	64	0
-	1936-12-31	64	0

[SACRUS]

 

57 / 53 with 0.19 additional in the bucket.  Warm 48 more hours with next shot of rain 0.50 to 0.75 coming later new year eve evening and overnight.  Colder byt the 2nd with the deep freeze 4 - 8 and lingering into mid moth with another charge.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs;

EWR: 63 (1984)
NYC: 65 (1984)
LGA: 63 (1984)
JFK: 64 (1984)


Lows:

EWR: -8 (1933) * tied the coldest (recorded)
NYC: -13 (1917)  * coldest
LGA: 3 (1962))3)
JFK: 5 (1962)

Historical:

1880 - The temperature at Charlotte, NC, plunged to an all-time record cold reading of 5 degrees below zero, a record which was equalled on the 21st of January in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

1917 - A great cold wave set many records in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 13 degrees below zero at New York City, and to 15 degrees below zero at Boston. Temperature readings dipped below zero at Boston five nights in a row. Berlin NH hit 44 degrees below zero in the "Great World War I Cold Wave," and Saint Johnsbury VT reached 43 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1933 - The temperature reached 50 degrees below zero at Bloomfield, VT. It was the coldest reading in modern records for New England. The temperature at Pittsburgh NH reached 44 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1955 - Anchorage, AK, reported an all-time record snow depth of 47 inches. (30th-1st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in Utah, with 28 inches reported in the Mount Holly and Elk Meadows area. Strong winds prevailed ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. Winds gusted to 46 mph at Dodge City KS, and reached 80 mph at Ruidoso NM. Strong northerly winds, ushering arctic cold into the north central U.S., created blizzard conditions in western Minnesota and central and eastern South Dakota. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. A week of subfreezing temperatures in southern California claimed the lives of five people. Redding CA was blanketed with four inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Extreme cold continued across northern Maine. Milo ME was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 38 degrees below zero, and the low of 31 degrees below zero at Caribou ME was a December record for that location. Freezing rain spread across much of Lower Michigan, knocking out electrical power to 1.9 million customers in southeastern Lower Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - Severe to extreme drought was observed across parts of the Hawaiian Islands, the western continental U.S., and parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Meanwhile, severe to exceptional drought conditions were present across southern Texas. (NCDC)

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

Dec 30 : 12 inches of snow falls ahead of the new year celebration.