December 2024

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, forkyfork said:

uh oh

It really makes no sense based on its MJO forecast but I guess there does tend to be a lag, I said last week it might be closer to 1/10 before the pattern really becomes favorable.  1/1-1/5 was being optimistic 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

uh oh

That type of pattern looks like lows into the lakes and redevelopment off of or over LI.  Could be nice for the interior portions of our sub.  Interior New England would clean up. But I'm definitely not a fan of long range forecasting or looking at anything post day 10 so *shrug*.

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Miller B and Miller A on the table in those looks

Miller B out here. Let’s get a stall out by block island. Maybe retrograde to Montauk?

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

uh oh

 

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That type of pattern looks like lows into the lakes and redevelopment off of or over LI.  Could be nice for the interior portions of our sub.  Interior New England would clean up. But I'm definitely not a fan of long range forecasting or looking at anything post day 10 so *shrug*.

Miller Bs better for us than Miller As out in Suffolks. So I’m ok with the transfer…just kill the primary and early

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Miller Bs better for us than Miller As out in Suffolks. So I’m ok with the transfer…just kill the primary and early

I think long range forecasting is voodoo. 

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Trough west, ridge east, weak/no block. Never seen that before.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Miller Bs better for us than Miller As out in Suffolks. So I’m ok with the transfer…just kill the primary and early

Drive 15 miles east and snow goes up by 15”? 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think long range forecasting is voodoo. 

It's crapshoot at best....you never know what's going to gum up the works as we draw closer... for example how many times in the last 5 yrs have we seen the MJO shoot back out into the unfavorable phases unexpectedly?

[BxEngine]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think long range forecasting is voodoo. 

This month being a great example

[North and West]

That type of pattern looks like lows into the lakes and redevelopment off of or over LI.  Could be nice for the interior portions of our sub.  Interior New England would clean up. But I'm definitely not a fan of long range forecasting or looking at anything post day 10 so *shrug*.

what does this epileptic seizure inducing gif mean


.

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's crapshoot at best....you never know what's going to gum up the works as we draw closer... for example how many times in the last 5 yrs have we seen the MJO shoot back out into the unfavorable phases unexpectedly?

I really have trouble biting on anything outside of 7-10 days.  Beyond day 10 and especially day 15 it has been pure speculation last several years.  Modeling has been very "jumpy" it seems to me.  Taking OP runs surface features as anything more than "interesting" is foolhardy.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think long range forecasting is voodoo. 

Absolutely agree. But I do think we get a nice coastal this year. 

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Drive 15 miles east and snow goes up by 15”? 

Better than driving west for the snow to go up 15”…

[MJO812]

Euro is cold in the mid to long range

[donsutherland1]

So far, the GEFS continues to suggest that the strongest shots of cold during the evolution of a colder pattern in January will dump into the West. There remain questions about the timing of the onset of the colder pattern in the East. The EPS (through 0z) had remained faster than the GEF (through 12z). Both support the development of a pattern that could become more favorable for moderate (4"+) or, if the PNA+ persists, significant (6"+) snowstorms than has been the case all winter so far. Whether there will be short waves present to produce the storminess remains to be seen.

Below are cases for severe multi-day cold shots that reached the East during the first half of January (1980-2024).

Finally, the cold start to December and 1.8" snowfall to date in New York City make it unnecessary to post "winter futility charts" at this time. Indeed, out of 156 winters (which includes 2024-25), Winter 2024-25 ranks 65th worst in terms of cold and snow (standardized basis) through December 22nd for New York City.

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Trough west, ridge east, weak/no block. Never seen that before.

Epic pattern haha.

 

Looks good for Minnesota and NNE

 

agreed with @Rjay

[EastonSN+]

GEPS did not take a step back. Let's see what the EPS shows. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Epic pattern haha.

 

Looks good for Minnesota and NNE

 

agreed with @Rjay

So you are giving up again?  What's their not to like ? All the tellies look good along with the mjo. 

[MJO812]

This subforum makes me go insane

[EastonSN+]

Gefs gets to the following look which must be due to a spread in The ensemble members. If this look were to verify I would think that the risks would be systems being shredded or weak into the South. On a side note I can never tell if forky is teasing the forum or has legit concerns LOL.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

south based nao blocks suck

Yeah they tend to cause systems to be shredded when the blocking is too far south and we do not have a ridge out west.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

That type of pattern looks like lows into the lakes and redevelopment off of or over LI.  Could be nice for the interior portions of our sub.  Interior New England would clean up. But I'm definitely not a fan of long range forecasting or looking at anything post day 10 so *shrug*.

While the long range ensemble forecasts beyond a week can vary quite a bit, the model error has been very consistent. The December long range forecasts issued back on December 1st underestimated the strength of the Pacific Jet. This lead to the 500 mb heights verifying lower than forecast over the EPAC south of Alaska. This allowed the ridge to drift east at times instead of staying anchored out West. We have seen some version of this model error every winter in the Pacific since 15-16. So now if the models are showing lower heights over Western NA than there were from earlier runs, it’s possible we see some version of this pattern repeat heading into January. The other issue has been the tendency for long range -AO forecasts to link up with the Southeast Ridge at least transiently when lows are ejecting from the trough which has been so frequent in the West. Just hoping we can get enough overlap between the fading +PNA and the emerging -AO to at least get a shot at a 4” snow event for NYC. But there are no guarantees with the way the Pacific has been acting as the spoiler since 18-19. 

[MJO812]

Good post

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEPS did not take a step back. Let's see what the EPS shows. 

That look is stuck past 300hrs 

 

Before that timeframe it’s similar to the gefs for the first week of January 

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Gefs gets to the following look which must be due to a spread in The ensemble members. If this look were to verify I would think that the risks would be systems being shredded or weak into the South. On a side note I can never tell if forky is teasing the forum or has legit concerns LOL.

 

It's an overall chilly look for basically the entire country but when systems eject out of the west they'll want to cut and redevelop with a look like that.    

[the_other_guy]

Miller B= Jets in Dec. 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That look is stuck past 300hrs 

 

Before that timeframe it’s similar to the gefs for the first week of January 

Yeah if I am not mistaken the optimistic period starts past the 5th of January so perhaps we will have a brief trough out west before we get to another trough East. Will be interesting to see which way the EPS leans.

[wdrag]

Probably starting an OBS NOW thread around 8P when I get time for a short duration- 2 hr  light-met snow shower event 5A-10A and see if CP can get over the 2" mark. 

[Rjay]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah if I am not mistaken the optimistic period starts past the 5th of January so perhaps we will have a brief trough out west before we get to another trough East. Will be interesting to see which way the EPS leans.

I'm optimistic we see a favorable window at some point during January.  I just don't know when. 

[SACRUS]