December 2024

[MJO812]

22 here

[sussexcountyobs]

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

i do not know if anyone has mentioned in days are getting longer now...sun looked a little brighter today...

That's some funny sh*t! Lol !

[psv88]

Made it to 21. Thinking we get down to 8-9 tonight out here

[cardinalland]

this is a rare case where forecast highs/lows have kept going down as the event approaches… i’m getting 14 point and click for manhattan tonight night now and some forecasts are lower

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Made it to 21. Thinking we get down to 8-9 tonight out here

might go below zero at KFOK

I wonder what the earliest is that's ever happened ?

[lee59]

Temperatures in the towns in the Catskills already not far from zero. Would not be surprised to see double digit below zero in some of these areas.  Hudson Valley will probably be zero or below by morning. I think I might even hit the single digits, already in upper teens.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

might go below zero at KFOK

I wonder what the earliest is that's ever happened ?

December 7, 2002: -1°

[Allsnow]

That’s a December day in NYC 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

December 7, 2002: -1°

and teens back this way Don?

[Snowlover11]

21 for a high

19 Currently

8 is the forecast low tonight.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw their coldest temperatures in nearly two years. Overnight low temperatures included:

Albany: 2° (coldest since February 4, 2023)
Allentown: 7° (coldest since January 18, 2024)
Boston: 11° (coldest since February 4, 2023)
Bridgeport: 13° (coldest since February 4, 2023)
Hartford: 11° (coldest since January 22, 2024)
Islip: 17° (coldest since January 22, 2024)
New York City: 15° (coldest since February 4, 2023)
Newark: 17° (coldest since January 18, 2024)
Philadelphia: 17° (coldest since January 22, 2024)
Providence: 11° (coldest since February 4, 2023)

Today's high temperature in New York City was 21°. That was the coldest high temperature since December 24, 2022 when the temperature topped out at just 15°.

It will again be very cold tonight. Low tempertaures tomorrow morning will again be in the teens in Philadelphia and new York City. Many areas outside those cities will likely experience single-digit lows. High temperatures will reach the upper 20s in New York City and upper 20s to near 30° in Philadelphia. Tuesday could see a few snow showers as a clipper passes north of the region.

The cold will begin to recede after midweek.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder. Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 11.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

In past days, an occasional run of the operational GFS showed a significant snowstorm from Washington, DC to New York City. However, the pattern makes such an event very unlikely for this region. Since 1950, there were 5 December snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of these cities. Four (80%) occurred with a PNA+/NAO- pattern. The NAO is forecast to be positive. In addition, three (60%) occurred when the MJO was in Phase 8, which is not likely over the next 10 days. Only the December 23-25, 1966 event produced 6" or more snow in all three cities with a positive NAO, but the AO was strongly negative (< -2.000), which is not likely during the next 10 days. In sum, the interior sections will be far more favored for an appreciable or perhaps greater snowfall than the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia-New York City area over the next 10 days. A smaller snowfall remains plausible, as occurred during December 20-21.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around December 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -2.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.451 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.9° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

On 12/15/2024 at 8:15 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead. Some interior snowfalls, but no significant East Coast snowfalls from Washington to Boston are likely. The period will start off very mild but end with perhaps the coldest weather so far this season moving into the region.

The week was actually colder than normal in the Northeast unlike the ECMWF weekly forecast. Measurable snow fell in Boston, New York City and Philadelphia. Boston's record 1,028-day snow drought without 4" or more snowfall ended on December 20th when 5.2" fell.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a December day in NYC 

 

 

Coldest December day in 2 years. But not quite as cold as 2022. The timing was really close right before Christmas both years. 

12-22-24…21/15….-19.0
12-24-22….15/7…..-25.9

[Rjay]

High was 21 here

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and teens back this way Don?

High or low temperature?

[donsutherland1]

The frequency of New York City's high temperatures of 21° or below:

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

3 seconds longer today, 7 tomorrow, 11  seconds longer Christmas eve

Looks like I stand corrected, once again...

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently 11.5. Forecast area low here is +2. At my location we are usually 2-3 degrees colder. Would not be surprised if we dipped a little below 0 tonight. 

[nycwinter]

it was so cold today i had to wear double gloves one underneath each other..

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it was so cold today i had to wear double gloves one underneath each other..

How else would one wear double gloves?

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

How else would one wear double gloves?

One over the other, duh.

[snywx]

Currently 9F here 

[nycwinter]

23 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

How else would one wear double gloves?

2 gloves are small one the other larger ones that how you can wear double gloves..

[wishcast_hater]

It’s already 6° at my house. Should easily get to zero tonight.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

2 gloves are small one the other larger ones that how you can wear double gloves..

Are you drunk???

[sussexcountyobs]

Back to reality. Currently +9.8/+0.3

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

it was so cold today i had to wear double gloves one underneath each other..

Actually, I walked my dog with just a thin glove, with the fingertips cut out so I can pick up the dog crap easier...

[Dark Star]

59 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

One over the other, duh.

Isn't that how OJ was acquitted?

[jm1220]

Down to 15. I have a good chance at dropping below 10 I think.