December 2024

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The only cold weather all winter

Wrong ! record cold early February 2023

New York sets new records for cold as 'arctic blast' shocks the city

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Wrong ! record cold early February 2023

New York sets new records for cold as 'arctic blast' shocks the city

Oh yeah I forgot about those 2 cold days in a sea of warmth

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The general holiday/Christmas warmup has been very noticeable and quite regular, but I'm not aware of any reason why that is more than an unlikely coincidence.  Is there any physical evidence that this should be considered a norm for the second half of December?

Yes, the physical evidence is that the 2nd half of December has been warming at a faster rate than the 1st half of December since 1981. So as a function of this warming NYC and other locations have made it to 55° or warmer every year between the 17th and 25th since 2011. This late month warm up has been very reliable even in years like 2017 that dropped into the single digits right after Christmas. It was also a feature in 2020 following the record 40”+ snowstorm in BGM mid-December before the record flood cutter and widespread 50s and 60s on Christmas.

Many times the models haven’t forecast this warm up during the first week of December but have shifted warmer in later runs as we approached the 15th. So when models are showing a relaxation of the colder pattern during the 2nd week of December, chances are the following period up to the holidays will see at least 1 day reaching 55° or warmer at spots like NYC and EWR.

NYC maximum temperature December 17th to 25th since 2011

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2023-12-25	62	0
2022-12-25	58	0
2021-12-25	60	0
2020-12-25	61	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	55	0
2016-12-25	58	0
2015-12-25	72	0
2014-12-25	62	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	56	0
2011-12-25	62	0

12-01 to 12-16 average temperature trend line NYC….1981…39.5°…..2023…41.3…..+1.8

12-17 to 12-31 average temperature trend line NYC….1981….34.7°….2023…39.6°….+4.9°

 

[MJO812]

[North and West]

Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month
 
 
 
 

.

[the_other_guy]

What a miserable freaking sub forum this has become.

Even in extended BN conditions, the same few guys are an utter misery about a pattern change 3 weeks from now.

 

Maybe those guys should slap on a pair of skis or go ice skating or jump into the Hudson and tell us how warm it is

Enjoy the winter weather boys. It is, after all, December

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He's not the only one hinting at a 13/14 type winter around here  - Walt and that Tolleris fellow have also mentioned similar solutions........although Walt didn't directly mention 13/14

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What a miserable freaking sub forum this has become.

Even in extended BN conditions, the same few guys are an utter misery about a pattern change 3 weeks from now.

 

Maybe those guys should slap on a pair of skis or go ice skating or jump into the Hudson and tell us how warm it is

Enjoy the winter weather boys. It is, after all, December

the hype train for epic snow storms has begun because the temp finally dropped below freezing. Same story every winter. You new here?

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

He's not the only one hinting at a 13/14 type winter around here  - Walt and that Tolleris fellow have also mentioned similar solutions........although Walt didn't directly mention 13/14

A few people mentioned those years on here and other forums. 

No clue why I got 4 weenies for that post. I guess people on here hate winter or love to troll.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What a miserable freaking sub forum this has become.

Even in extended BN conditions, the same few guys are an utter misery about a pattern change 3 weeks from now.

 

Maybe those guys should slap on a pair of skis or go ice skating or jump into the Hudson and tell us how warm it is

Enjoy the winter weather boys. It is, after all, December

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

This sub has been on point for the last few years.  You like other subs and forums bc they say things you want to hear more often.  I've noticed this with other posters as well and this type of thought pattern bleeds into every other area of life too. 

[North and West]

A few people mentioned those years on here and other forums. 
No clue why I got 4 weenies for that post. I guess people on here hate winter or love to troll.

.

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

As soon as someone in the SNE subforum posted a thread about the best early December pattern in years, snow prospects for us fell to shit   Those guys are generally too optimistic about future patterns that are just beyond the horizon. Same story for the past few years. But that is born out of a series of good years in the 2010s and significantly more margin for snow in NE compared to the northern mid-atlantic.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This sub has been on point for the last few years.  You like other subs and forums bc they say things you want to hear more often.  I've noticed this with other posters as well and this type of thought pattern bleeds into every other area of life too. 

It's amazing how saying it's not likely to snow means you hate snow

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

As soon as someone in the SNE subforum posted a thread about the best early December pattern in years, snow prospects for us fell to shit   Those guys are generally too optimistic about future patterns that are just beyond the horizon. Same story for the past few years. But that is born out of a series of good years in the 2010s and significantly more margin for snow in NE compared to the northern mid-atlantic.

Maybe they jinxed the whole east coast 

[vegan_edible]

fundamentally there is not one person on this forum that will determine whether it will snow or not. chances are we will see snow at some point this winter, just take it as it is and enjoy the fact it actually feels winter-y here in december

[rclab]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

the hype train for epic snow storms has begun because the temp finally dropped below freezing. Same story every winter. You new here?

 

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few people mentioned those years on here and other forums. 

No clue why I got 4 weenies for that post. I guess people on here hate winter or love to troll.

 

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

 

44 minutes ago, North and West said:

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's amazing how saying it's not likely to snow means you hate snow

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe they jinxed the whole east coast 

As I approach my ninth decade with over 10 years as a forum member and thanks to well versed members and professionals, ….. enough knowledge has managed to squeeze under my mental block for me to keep the expectations/reality of my inner city coastal plain climate in clear perspective. So if it’s only one or multiple occasions that I see snow flakes fall on the postage stamp or stream by the street light, I’ll be happy. If no flakes fall, I can still recall a photo memory or view the Silver Bells scene in the Lemon Drop Kid until it’s snow over the city ending. Stay well everyone, as always ….

 

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2024-25 has gotten off to a cold start. This morning the temperature fell to 27° in New York City's Central Park. That was the first sub-30° low since March 22nd and the coldest low temperature since February 17th when the mercury also dipped to 27°.

The first 10 days of December will likely see a mean temperature below 34° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2002, when the first 10 days of December had a mean temperature of 31.2°. December will likely wind up somewhat colder than normal overall. In fact, since 1980, all four cases with a December 1-10 mean temperature below 36.5° preceded a colder than normal December while 85% of the remaining cases saw a warmer than normal December. The sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance showed an implied 68% probability of a colder than normal December.

On account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow remains likely even as the current event will wind down. So far, the current event has seen 46.0" at Barnes Corners (4 SW), NY and Copenhagen (4 NW). In addition, daily snowfall at Erie came to 22.6" on November 29th, which broke the all-time daily mark of 21.8" that was set on December 16, 2017.

At least through the first week of December, precipitation will likely be below to much below normal in the region. Nevertheless, a clipper system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around November 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase.

The SOI was +6.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.478 today.

 

[tristateweatherFB]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's why I like going into the SNE subforum. Very reasonable people there.

I don’t post often here but for a couple of weeks I been calling for a warm holiday.   Why?  Look at the mjo going into phase 6.   Look at the epo going positive.   Look at the pna going positive.  
reasonable ppl or people that just want to talk snow is coming.  Sorry to bust your bubble but warmth is coming second half of this month.   I do see a flip back in January where I hope we cash in.   We need it especially along the coast

[eduggs]

As expected, the 18z GFS shifted towards model consensus for the 10th and beyond and away from a wintry threat.

"Pattern" is a misused and misunderstood phrase, but if we want to grossly generalize things then we can say this "pattern" or orientation and evolution of the synoptic flow field does not look to be very favorable for snow locally.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

This sub has been on point for the last few years.  You like other subs and forums bc they say things you want to hear more often.  I've noticed this with other posters as well and this type of thought pattern bleeds into every other area of life too. 

Blind negativism was sufficient to be on point for the past two winters.

At least this winter's outcome is still unknown.

[North and West]

.

[brooklynwx99]

even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch

[eduggs]

Another day, another shitty model cycle. It's been all down hill since a snowy, Friday November 22.

[MJO812]

Gfs and cmc look awful now going forward.  Most likely a brief moderation but the long lasting cold that the models once showed  is now gone.

 

Looking like a cutter for next weekend 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and cmc look awful now going forward.  Most likely a brief moderation but the long lasting cold that the models once showed  is now gone.

 

Looking like a cutter for next weekend 

The maps will keep changing. We know this because they almost always do.

WX/PT

[psv88]

23 now. At least the bugs are dead. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Another day, another shitty model cycle. It's been all down hill since a snowy, Friday November 22.

A cold first half of December has turned into just a cold first week of December. Next week looks fairly mild now. We do still have hope of seeing flakes Wednesday night. 0z Euro actually gives us a decent little burst of snow, but it will be tough to accumulate near the coast with temps above freezing. It's pretty much all we have right now, so we root to see a little something Wednesday night. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The maps will keep changing. We know this because they almost always do.

WX/PT

The long lasting cold pattern is now gone. 

Here comes the typical Christmas thaw.