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December 2024


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We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. 500 mb heights over the NEPAC and WNA have been verifying lower than the long range forecasts have been indicating.
 

New run

IMG_2478.thumb.png.de6d6bd443a98e172231ab0a700549f0.png

Old run

IMG_2451.thumb.png.c1a27308f313e36ef895fcad1e72541c.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. 
 

New run

IMG_2478.thumb.png.de6d6bd443a98e172231ab0a700549f0.png

Old run

IMG_2451.thumb.png.c1a27308f313e36ef895fcad1e72541c.png

that trough is transient, though. it's normal for there to be a transient trough in the west when the EPO drops... the pattern is in the process of transitioning there

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. 500 mb heights over the NEPAC and WNA have been verifying lower than the long range forecasts have been indicating.
 

New run

IMG_2478.thumb.png.de6d6bd443a98e172231ab0a700549f0.png

Old run

IMG_2451.thumb.png.c1a27308f313e36ef895fcad1e72541c.png

More of the same 

 

GL cutters with dry/cold in between 

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

that screenshot of the pattern is misleading. a static image won't paint an accurate picture of what's actually occurring

The mjo convection is in conflict as it’s in diff phases. You can see in the ext products that any trough in the east will be transient. Our only way out was this Decembers with the PNA but the pac never slowed down. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

The mjo convection is in conflict as it’s in diff phases. You can see in the ext products that any trough in the east will be transient. Our only way out was this Decembers with the PNA but the pac never slowed down. 

the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year

ECMF_BC.png.6573408ddf3731f681bc2f9533243918.pngGEFS_BC.png.a45444abf654572783be8409f07e1d04.png

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year

ECMF_BC.png.6573408ddf3731f681bc2f9533243918.pngGEFS_BC.png.a45444abf654572783be8409f07e1d04.png

Where do u see a trough in the east for 2-3 weeks? 
 

with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where do u see a trough in the west for 2-3 weeks? 
 

with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc 

ok, so the progression on every single ensemble is going to be wrong? is that what you're saying?

also, there's a trough in the east for two weeks on the extended GEFS and three weeks on the Weeklies. that is what the extended products are showing. it's not transient

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19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that trough is transient, though. it's normal for there to be a transient trough in the west when the EPO drops... the pattern is in the process of transitioning there

The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker with the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS longer range is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient Southeast Ridges  will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA. 

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year

ECMF_BC.png.6573408ddf3731f681bc2f9533243918.pngGEFS_BC.png.a45444abf654572783be8409f07e1d04.png

MJO was strong for phase 5 n

 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Where do u see a trough in the east for 2-3 weeks? 
 

with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc 

Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go!

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

ok, so the progression on every single ensemble is going to be wrong? is that what you're saying?

also, there's a trough in the east for two weeks on the extended GEFS and three weeks on the Weeklies. that is what the extended products are showing. it's not transient

You’re completely missing the point about how we continue to chase that carrot. @bluewaveis just pointing out how the pac continues to be to fast which taints those ideal looks on the 11-15 day means

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker due to the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient SE ridges will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA.

so you think that trough isn't transient on average? just to be clear? and you do not believe the ensembles just a couple of days after that screenshot with a mean trough in the E US?

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3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

MJO was strong for phase 5 n

 

Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go!

@bluewave never called for a blowtorch December 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

You’re completely missing the point about how we continue to chase that carrot. @bluewaveis just pointing out how the pac continues to be to fast which taints those ideal looks on the 11-15 day means

but the Pacific jet is going to retract. the pattern isn't going to remain static forever. the jet extension we just saw was well forecast

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_fh180-384.thumb.gif.5a58eca55b84a9115489b1562078cafc.gif

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker with the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient SE ridges will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA.

Doesn't mean it's going to happen with every storm from now till March..Sometimes patterns change..Yes we've been in a snow drought but it always goes back the other way..that's why they have averages.

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also, just logically speaking, in order for us to go from the overextended jet like we have now to the supposed retracted jet SE ridge pattern in late Jan that some are advertising, there HAS to be a period where the jet is in a favorable position for WC and AK ridging and a mean trough in the east. the jet can't just magically hop from one place to the other

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also, if the Pacific jet is also going to be stronger than forecast for much of the winter, wouldn't that mean that the retraction on the extended guidance for late Jan into Feb is overdone, shifting the prospective Aleutian ridge more into AK and the WC, leading to a colder E US pattern?

but nobody is using that logic in that fashion for whatever reason

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20 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

MJO was strong for phase 5 n

 

Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go!

I called for a -1 to +1 pattern for this month back in early December which is right on track when you average out the 7 local stations currently at -0.5.  A back and forth pattern with warm ups and cool downs. The model forecasts issued on December 1st missed the warmth from mid to late month which I was pointing out three weeks ago with my posts about the Pacific Jet verifying faster than forecast. I also highlighted the mismatch potential back in October with the +PNA we have seen. But that there were competing influences that were different from past La Niña mismatch Decembers. 

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