MJO812 Posted yesterday at 07:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:18 PM 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gorgeous. After this weekend/Christmas I’m about done with cold without snow Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted yesterday at 07:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:20 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted yesterday at 07:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:22 PM 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gorgeous. After this weekend/Christmas I’m about done with cold without snow you may be in luck if the January pattern doesn't show up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 07:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:31 PM 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: you may be in luck if the January pattern doesn't show up.... You are a glimmer of hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: you may be in luck if the January pattern doesn't show up.... Been waiting for the January pattern since 23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted yesterday at 07:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:38 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Been waiting for the January pattern since 23 yeah nothing has wanted to work out last few yrs...last January we had 8 days of cold and luckily a snow event but it was back to the warmth right after....hopefully this yr is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted yesterday at 07:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:47 PM Rainfall Sun - Tue: LGA: 1.19 JFK: 1.00 NYC: 0.98 EWR: 0.91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 08:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:14 PM On 12/1/2024 at 2:00 PM, bluewave said: Yes, the physical evidence is that the 2nd half of December has been warming at a faster rate than the 1st half of December since 1981. So as a function of this warming NYC and other locations have made it to 55° or warmer every year between the 17th and 25th since 2011. This late month warm up has been very reliable even in years like 2017 that dropped into the single digits right after Christmas. It was also a feature in 2020 following the record 40”+ snowstorm in BGM mid-December before the record flood cutter and widespread 50s and 60s on Christmas. Many times the models haven’t forecast this warm up during the first week of December but have shifted warmer in later runs as we approached the 15th. So when models are showing a relaxation of the colder pattern during the 2nd week of December, chances are the following period up to the holidays will see at least 1 day reaching 55° or warmer at spots like NYC and EWR. NYC maximum temperature December 17th to 25th since 2011 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 12-01 to 12-16 average temperature trend line NYC….1981…39.5°…..2023…41.3…..+1.8 12-17 to 12-31 average temperature trend line NYC….1981….34.7°….2023…39.6°….+4.9° High so far of 58° in NYC. So a record breaking 14 consecutive years reaching 55° or warmer between 12-17 and 12-25. A remarkably consistent pattern for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted yesterday at 08:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:28 PM 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: No ski resort here. There used to be: https://www.nelsap.org/ny/highpoint.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM 1 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:51 PM The annual Xmas week Torch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted yesterday at 08:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:56 PM waiting for the nam run that shows a low tucking into montauk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted yesterday at 09:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:14 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Been waiting for the January pattern since 23 you didn't have a good feb last year? 20.5" that month here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted yesterday at 09:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:15 PM 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: oh now we're actually f*cked. when jb starts tweeting i might as well get my swim trunks out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 09:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:23 PM Even in this era of warm extremes the last week of December really stands out for the North American continent. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3ldhqhn4gxs2a Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted yesterday at 09:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:24 PM oh now we're actually f*cked. when jb starts tweeting i might as well get my swim trunks outWith the meteorological world steeped in frustration a nation turns its lonely eyes to the highly esteemed Joseph Bastardi. For years Mr. Bastardi has graced us with his immeasurable wisdom and provided guidance and soul searching for budding practitioners of the barometric arts. As the long doldrums of a barren winter eviscerate our hopes and emasculate our most fervent snow packed dreams, we pray for Mr. Bastardi to extend us the blessings of his everlasting graciousness and meterological fiber, and to comfort us in our time of need.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 09:27 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:27 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted yesterday at 09:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:28 PM Man, you guys are really miserable. You’re really pushing that last week of December for some torch. It’s gonna be in the freaking 40s. Listening to some of you, one would think we’d be going for a record-breaking heat. Some of you must be real fun at the barbecue or a Christmas party i’m rooting for that Sunday snowstorm just to piss some of you off 5 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted yesterday at 09:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:31 PM Just now, the_other_guy said: Man, you guys are really miserable. You’re really pushing that last week of December for some torch. It’s gonna be in the freaking 40s. Listening to some of you, one would think we’d be going for a record-breaking heat. Some of you must be real fun at the barbecue or a Christmas party i will say, 12z held the torch off significantly. OP runs and ensembles. im gonna be in albany that entire week. i dont think its gonna break out of the 30s up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted yesterday at 09:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:33 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon is an outlier. Go with a blend of the other models knowing that this is an IVT and will probably leave a lot of people disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM 12 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Icon is an outlier. Go with a blend of the other models knowing that this is an IVT and will probably leave a lot of people disappointed. That's why we track . Euro is quite similiar also . The storm isn't that far away from the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:46 PM 18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Man, you guys are really miserable. You’re really pushing that last week of December for some torch. It’s gonna be in the freaking 40s. Listening to some of you, one would think we’d be going for a record-breaking heat. Some of you must be real fun at the barbecue or a Christmas party i’m rooting for that Sunday snowstorm just to piss some of you off Welcome to this subforum 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 09:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:56 PM you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted yesterday at 09:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:56 PM anyway, the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift. though I think for any notable snow, you'll need an IVT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 10:04 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:04 PM 36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Man, you guys are really miserable. You’re really pushing that last week of December for some torch. It’s gonna be in the freaking 40s. Listening to some of you, one would think we’d be going for a record-breaking heat. Some of you must be real fun at the barbecue or a Christmas party i’m rooting for that Sunday snowstorm just to piss some of you off If people discussing the actual weather patterns make you that angry maybe you need some time off from this place. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 10:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:06 PM 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged No one talks about small storms anymore. I'm happy to see flakes this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 10:06 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:06 PM 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: anyway, the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift. though I think for any notable snow, you'll need an IVT Big shift in h5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 10:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:09 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one talks about small storms anymore. I'm happy to see flakes this weekend. You will be lucky to see any 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted yesterday at 10:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:09 PM @bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted yesterday at 10:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 10:11 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You will be lucky to see any This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? That's why we track. Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it. Snow is snow Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy. No point posting in this subforum . 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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