December 2024

[Snowlover11]

Lightly snowing here in Nanuet. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Light snow 32/27 currently.  A coating on the ground.

[HeadInTheClouds]

30 with light snow, dusting. Forecast for 1-2 overnight. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

I'd just add that it is kind of a pathetic situation. We have strong gusty northeasterly winds, high pressure is cold and in almost a perfect spot, there's even a bit of an inverted trough. You'd think somehow we'd be able to squeeze some flakes out of this. There is enough room for a system to develop further west but it doesn't. And I don't think it will. Sad.

WX/PT

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

The weekend has not surprisingly trended into a nothing burger. We were trying to depend on a perfect +PNA spike in a perfect location with perfect downstream wave spacing and amping. A completely thread the needle setup…No -NAO and no 50/50 low and very fast northern stream flow, no southern stream involvement/phasing. It’s been doomed for awhile IMO

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Tomorrow's 00Z GFS is faster and further out to sea with the weekend system/non-system than last run. 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024121600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

Gefs is further west.  We should still watch this system. 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The weekend has not surprisingly trended into a nothing burger. We were trying to depend on a perfect +PNA spike in a perfect location with perfect downstream wave spacing and amping. A completely thread the needle setup…No -NAO and no 50/50 low and very fast northern stream flow, no southern stream involvement/phasing. It’s been doomed for awhile IMO

No it hasn't but it's not looking likely now. Still bares watching. 

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have a shot at 50s to around 60 at some point during the last week of December. Many outside this forum don’t consider milder weather this time of year doom and gloom since it helps lower their winter heating bills. But it isn’t the greatest if you are running a ski resort during the holiday period.

Taking into account sky conditions and or if its raining ? Difficult to get to 60 in Late December with lack of daylight hours also and trying to predict over 10 days in advance - the whole setup could change by then........

[psv88]

Snow mixing in with the rain, 37 now

[NorthShoreWx]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Snow mixing in with the rain, 37 now

Mix here too.  36⁰

[Yaz]

Rockaway NJ 2:50 am

Morris County

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 8 s of high Point... 2.6" at 4A. 31.1F no wind

[gravitylover]

I expected to wake up to some freezing rain but got 4" of snow instead. Seems a fair trade

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow showers. Measured 2.75" org 32°

[rgwp96]

I’m shocked just about 3 inches of snow (butler nj Morris county )

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 8s High Point about 0.8" snow in 1 hr ending 5A. 3.4" so far though settling snow depth 3.2. 31F. still snowing a bit at 5A. Frankford Township DPW 3.5" at 4A, also Sussex County NJ.   GEFS was TERRIBLE for this current event.  CMCE and EPS much better. 

Regarding Fri-Sat of this coming weekend... am pretty sure of a light snowfall and maybe stick for first measurable NYC.  Can't quite yet start a thread. I want to get to 96 Hours with same scenario but probabilistic has been showing the potential for several cycles. See attached  graphics from 09z this morning. Will go with CMCE and EPS for the coming weekend.

I foresee a bit of snow with entire I84 corridor Fri-Saturday followed by possible wind chill advisories either Sat night or Sunday night for much of I84 northward with as previously mentioned,  the coldest air of the season so far.  

 

WSSI-P graphics attached. Pocket of light blue near NYC is risk of a moderate event.  The more extensive graphic is the still low probability for a widespread minor impact event, with the lighter blue hues in MA-NYS higher probability.  Lets see what evolves but I am not dismissive. No further comment from me on this til tomorrow morning.  

 

 

[qg_omega]

Not expecting this much rain this morning, this was not a weak storm

[sussexcountyobs]

Almost 3.5" when I left at 5:30. Rt.23 is terrible. They dropped the ball regarding clearing the highway on this one.

[donsutherland1]

On 12/8/2024 at 7:49 AM, donsutherland1 said:

A wet week lies ahead. Midweek will be very mild before it turns sharply colder. Snowfall prospects will remain limited.

Final weekly outcome:

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is further west.  We should still watch this system. 

Still watching

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Taking into account sky conditions and or if its raining ? Difficult to get to 60 in Late December with lack of daylight hours also and trying to predict over 10 days in advance - the whole setup could change by then........

Taking into climatology into account,  the the average maximum temperature during the last week of December has been 50 to 62 since 2011.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending max temperature 12-26 to 12-31

2023-12-31	55	0
2022-12-31	62	0
2021-12-31	55	0
2020-12-31	50	0
2019-12-31	54	0
2018-12-31	60	0
2017-12-31	28	0
2016-12-31	60	0
2015-12-31	61	0
2014-12-31	55	0
2013-12-31	55	0
2012-12-31	39	0
2011-12-31	57	0

[IrishRob17]

3.7” to perfect snowball snow, bringing my season to 8.9”, 31/30.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ (this part 3.4" final but I've seen northern Wantage 4.1.  My season total 7.5.  I'll take it.  This is actually a halfway decent start to winter out here. 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ (this part 3.4" final but I've seen northern Wantage 4.1.  My season total 7.5.  I'll take it.  This is actually a halfway decent start to winter out here. 

Elevation has been a big help with these marginal set ups since late November.

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ (this part 3.4" final but I've seen northern Wantage 4.1.  My season total 7.5.  I'll take it.  This is actually a halfway decent start to winter out here. 

Agreed on the decent start to winter. Gave my grandson  new snow pants, jacket, and boots yesterday as an early gift, it's coming in handy today at least. 

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Elevation has been a big help with these marginal set ups since late November.

It sure has. I'd imagine most of, if not all, of the higher elevations up here are easily into double digit season totals. 

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still watching

We know. You will be tracking it till Saturday night, maybe Sunday lol

[lee59]

.58 inch of rain here, did not expect that much. Looks like inland got more snow than expected also.

[SnoSki14]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still watching

Flow is way too fast. We just saw this with last week's system. 

And anyone comparing the setup to 2010 is insane. That had a massive -NAO block