December 2024

[SACRUS]

 

NYC

2013: 5 inches of snow mixed with and changed to heavy rain.  Total liquid 1.46 inches.

[SACRUS]

 

Another inch or so of rain in the next week mainly Sun/Mon and Wed.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not surprising given how dominant the Pacific Jet is with the very fast zonal flow. Most of the storm tracks in this regime are cutters or huggers. In the old days we used to get more clippers diving south of NYC. These days we hardly ever see this track.

Agreed we have had a lack of clippers lately, hopefully they return like the coastal hugger did, which we thought was extinct from 2000 through 2018, ultimately returned.

Unfortunately we have no idea how many years the pac will be uncooperative.

[the_other_guy]

when was the last time we had a below normal December?

 

That’s an impressive on its own right. Looks like a lock now

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC

2013: 5 inches of snow mixed with and changed to heavy rain.  Total liquid 1.46 inches.

I remember that! we still had some snow on the ground after that though.

[dmillz25]

Got down to 25° here

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not surprising given how dominant the Pacific Jet is with the very fast zonal flow. Most of the storm tracks in this regime are cutters or huggers. In the old days we used to get more clippers diving south of NYC. These days we hardly ever see this track.

Seems like a win just to have a winter month with the opportunity to finish below normal in the temp departure. 
 

we finally get the PNA to work in our favor and the jet ext pushed it too far east. With how cold The country has been it’s amazing that just two small areas by the lakes are above avg in snowfall. 
 

safe to say this won’t be a 20-21 type winter but hopefully we can get a Jan 22 type month to salvage something 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Seems like a win just to have a winter month with the opportunity to finish below normal in the temp departure. 
 

we finally get the PNA to work in our favor and the jet ext pushed it too far east. With how cold The country has been it’s amazing that just two small areas by the lakes are above avg in snowfall. 
 

safe to say this won’t be a 20-21 type winter but hopefully we can get a Jan 22 type month to salvage something 

NOT predicting this but mid January 2015 through that March would work ( I know extreme but speaking of time remaining) or even a month like March 2018 alone would get us close to average.

[SACRUS]

30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

when was the last time we had a below normal December?

 

That’s an impressive on its own right. Looks like a lock now

2019, 2017

EWR:

Dec dep

2023: +6.3
2022: +.03
2021:  + 6.5
2020: 0 
2019:  - 0.4
2018: +1.4
2017: - 3.7

[MANDA]

Some of the coldest lows across NJ this morning.  Low was 14 degrees here.

[MANDA]

Summary of November and Meteorological Fall 2024 for NJ.

https://www.njweather.org/content/peculiar-indeed-november-and-fall-2024-recaps

 

[psv88]

22 last night. North wind stayed up on the north shore so we didn’t really radiate. Areas further south away from the sound radiated better and had less influence from the sounds warm waters. Rarely happens but it does happen occasionally. 

[uofmiami]

Just now, psv88 said:

22 last night. North wind stayed up on the north shore so we didn’t really radiate. Areas further south away from the sound radiated better and had less influence from the sounds warm waters. Rarely happens but it does happen occasionally. 

20 in Syosset & 16 in Muttontown.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

20 in Syosset & 16 in Muttontown.

Out here at least. Jericho turnpike north to the sound was 23-27. Jericho south 18-20…

[winterwx21]

By far the coldest morning of the season here with a low temp of 13. 

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Out here at least. Jericho turnpike north to the sound was 23-27. Jericho south 18-20…

I had light N wind at 230 ASL, while Muttontown lower elevation of 154 ASL had no winds at all.

[GaWx]

Parts of upstate NY, Ontario and Quebec appear to be near or at all-time Dec record high SLP with the Massena to Ottawa corridor at ~1050 mb near records for any month: these are from 10AM EST:

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  

MASSENA        SUNNY     18  10  71 NE3       31.01S

MONTREAL       MOSUNNY   16   7  67 N5        31.00R WCI   9 TC  -9    

  

_____REGIONAL ONTARIO LOCATIONS_____  

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  

OTTAWA         MOSUNNY   14   9  79 NE7       30.99R

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/record-breaking-pressure-over-ontario-012208535.html

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

when was the last time we had a below normal December?

 

That’s an impressive on its own right. Looks like a lock now

December 2022 was the last below normal average December temperatures with the single digit lows before Christmas.

[MJO812]

Good trends so far today with the storm for next weekend. Vort is digging more compared to 0z. 

Huge changes

[Tatamy]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Good trends so far today with the storm for next weekend. Vort is digging more compared to 0z. 

Huge changes

Huge changes run to run.  They are really struggling with this pattern.

[MJO812]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Huge changes run to run.  They are really struggling with this pattern.

Agree

It's a thread to needle since the NAO is awful but the ridge out west might be in our favor if it flexes its muscle. 

Vort went from Canada to the mid Atlantic now.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed we have had a lack of clippers lately, hopefully they return like the coastal hugger did, which we thought was extinct from 2000 through 2018, ultimately returned.

Unfortunately we have no idea how many years the pac will be uncooperative.

Yeah, it’s a good question. 2010 to 2018 featured continuous benchmark tracks with blizzards even in warm patterns like in 16-17.  But something changed in 18-19 when NYC started getting warm storm tracks even in cold patterns. 

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good trends so far today with the storm for next weekend. Vort is digging more compared to 0z. 

Huge changes

Well this is a shocking development. Up to 27 degrees here in full sun. 

[brooklynwx99]

much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao

also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

It's a thread to needle since the NAO is awful but the ridge out west might be in our favor if it flexes its muscle. 

Vort went from Canada to the mid Atlantic now.

Need to lose that low over the Great Lakes which is eroding the cold high on the GEFS mean as it would probably lead to P-Type issues near the coast should it trend stronger in later runs like the CMC and 0z Euro.

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need to lose that low over the Great Lakes which is eroding the cold high on the GEFS mean as it would probably lead to P-Type issues near the coast should it trend stronger in later runs like the CMC and 0z Euro.

 

Having the low dig further south is a positive development . Hopefully the ridge out west helps us.

[MJO812]

Cmc is really cold Christmas eve while the gfs is mild

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Having the low dig further south is a positive development . Hopefully the ridge out west helps us.

It’s been challenging to get these type of thread the needle events to work out near the coast when we have low pressure in the Great Lakes instead of a cold high.

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need to lose that low over the Great Lakes which is eroding the cold high on the GEFS mean as it would probably lead to P-Type issues near the coast should it trend stronger in later runs like the CMC and 0z Euro.

 

I don't see that at all... there's strong HP over the top as the coastal takes shape. this looks like snow or bust with the evolution on the 12z GFS / CMC

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is really cold Christmas eve while the gfs is mild

chances are one will be correct...maybe both......