December 2024

[cardinalland]

the ridge over the midwest and the raging PAC jet don't help either

[NorthShoreWx]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I printed this out from my basement 

https://images.app.goo.gl/4hTCjjLDBFhnjYLo9

 

[steve392]

Anyone have rainfall totals for nj?  My rain guage disappeared with the winds. 

[mgerb]

Last 2 days here: https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=custom&displayna=0&from=2024-12-11&to=2024-12-12&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-75.57083129882814,40.295239085867614,-73.26370239257814,41.193123075718695

 

[North and West]

The cold air in the East definitely begins retreating after the pre Christmas storm.

.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The warm air out West starts building East on the EPS post day 9.

EPS has not been reliable though. Probably a lot of back and forth. 

[vegan_edible]

gfs said this to the potential winter storm

[brooklynwx99]

37 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs said this to the potential winter storm

it’s there, just south of the Mason-Dixon line

[Franklin0529]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

gfs said this to the potential winter storm

It's there 4-6 for DC Baltimore an southern jersey 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS has not been reliable though. Probably a lot of back and forth. 

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

[wdrag]

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

 

Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th. 

[bluewave]

Nice to see some areas with more than 5.00” since November 20th.

 

Data for November 20, 2024 through December 13, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	SEAFORD 0.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	8.36
NY	MOUNT SINAI	COOP	6.83
NY	ST. JAMES	COOP	6.54
NY	BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	6.48
CT	GUILFORD	COOP	6.27
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	6.20
NY	CENTERPORT	COOP	6.16
NY	UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	6.06
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	5.89
CT	DANBURY	COOP	5.81
NY	NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	5.78
CT	GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	5.70
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	5.67
NY	ORIENT POINT STATE PARK	COOP	5.60
NY	CENTERPORT 1.1 SE	CoCoRaHS	5.56
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	5.56
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	5.54
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	5.43
NY	NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W	CoCoRaHS	5.41
NY	SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	5.31
NY	PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	5.25
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	5.14
CT	FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE	CoCoRaHS	5.13
CT	STAMFORD 1.0 S	CoCoRaHS	5.08
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	5.05
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	5.05
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	5.02
NY	THORNWOOD 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	5.01

[the_other_guy]

So to summarize:

Lot of cold over the next 10 days…interrupted by a real warm cutter….Wouldnt be Dec without 55 and rain after all...and a nice mild finish to the month.

Sounds like a snowless December to me. 

Nice

 

[Snowlover11]

21F for a low.

[SnoSki14]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

More of the same garbage we've seen past decade. I don't mind it honestly. Hopefully we're warm/dry

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah our average December snowfall prior to 2000 was like 2.6". We're just reverting back to that

The main difference back then is NYC didn’t have 3 consecutive Decembers with under 1” of snow like they did in 2021,2022, and 2023.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2023	T	0
2022	T	0
2021	0.2	0
2020	10.5	0
2019	2.5	0
2018	T	0
2017	7.7	0
2016	3.2	0
2015	T	0
2014	1.0	0
2013	8.6	0
2012	0.4	0
2011	0.0	0
2010	20.1	0
2009	12.4	0
2008	6.0	0
2007	2.9	0
2006	0.0	0
2005	9.7	0
2004	3.0	0
2003	19.8	0
2002	11.0	0
2001	T	0
2000	13.4	0
1999	T	0
1998	2.0	0
1997	T	0
1996	T	0
1995	11.5	0
1994	T	0
1993	6.9	0
1992	0.4	0
1991	0.7	0
1990	7.2	0
1989	1.4	0
1988	0.3	0
1987	2.6	0
1986	0.6	0
1985	0.9	0
1984	5.5	0
1983	1.6	0
1982	3.0	0
1981	2.1	0
1980	2.8	0

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

Not at all unexpected.  I do admire the optimism around here though.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

 

Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th. 

There was no movement in the Drought Monitor issued yesterday but the most recent rains were not figured into it.  Should be some improvement in next weeks issuance.  These are some nice 3 week totals.

[SACRUS]

 

30 / 7 off a low of 22 here.  Cold the next 36 hours.  Warmer wetter replay of the last week Sun - Tue  up to 0.75.  colder period by next sunday 21st and into /through Christmas with big WC ridge.  Storms and each storm's potential should be interesting to track.  Beyond Christmas near / warmer than normal rebound by the close of the month.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

It’s beginning to look like January could open on a mild note. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2015) first of many record highs that month / season
NYC: 67 (2015)
LGA: 63 (1946)
JFK: 70 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1960)
NYC: 8 (1960)
LGA: 8 (1960)
JFK: 8 (1960)

 

Historical:

 

1915 - A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for western New England. (The Weather Channel)

1962 - A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4 inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours. The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique. Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - A powerful Pacific storm system plowed into the western United States during the 13th-16th, producing high winds, heavy rains, significant mountain snowfall and causing 9 deaths (Associated Press). Rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches occurred in parts of California, and wind gusts over 45 mph produced up to 1.9 million power outages during the period (Pacific Gas & Electric).

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Departures through 12/12

NYC: -2.5
LGA: -2.4
EWR: -1.1
JFK: 0.1
 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Lows:

EWR: 8 (1960)
NYC: 8 (1960)
LGA: 8 (1960)
JFK: 8 (1960

 

 

The OCD in me loves this.

[SACRUS]

Just now, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

The OCD in me loves this.

 

Thats a rarity for sure 

[North and West]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

So to summarize:

Lot of cold over the next 10 days…interrupted by a real warm cutter….Wouldnt be Dec without 55 and rain after all...and a nice mild finish to the month.

Sounds like a snowless December to me. 

Nice

 

*wouldn't be Christmas without warm southerly winds and driving rain

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s beginning to look like January could open on a mild note. 

Unless this holiday period potential pans out, looks like NYC won’t get the Dec 3” snow needed to be optimistic for a snowy winter. As everyone knows, since we have the same bad Pacific base state as the past 5+ years, my expectations are quite low. Hopefully I’m wrong. I agree with hoping for warmth if it won’t snow. We do still need the rain. 

[Allsnow]

06z gefs builds the -epo now at the end of the 11-15 day as the Aleutian low drifts west. Lots of flip flopping in that timeframe currently 

[TriPol]

Any chance we can squeeze out an end of the month snowstorm alla 2000?

[mgerb]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

Would add the caveat that this really applies for the area north of I-78. Central and especially southern NJ have seen less, and drought severity is higher there anyway, so need to see more to start to claw out. Yeah, largely outside "NYC metro", but know we have plenty of posters south of I-78. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Unless this holiday period potential pans out, looks like NYC won’t get the Dec 3” snow needed to be optimistic for a snowy winter. As everyone knows, since we have the same bad Pacific base state as the past 5+ years, my expectations are quite low. Hopefully I’m wrong. I agree with hoping for warmth if it won’t snow. We do still need the rain. 

Unfortunately, unless things change, NYC seems on course for less than 3” snow this month. The fast Pacific jet and NAO+ suggest a hostile environment for big storms like what was shown on yesterday’s 12z GFS. Smaller snowfalls might still occur if precipitation coincides with colder periods.