December 2024

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's the analog from many people on other forums and social media

NYC had 57 and 50 inches  those winters.........

 

[EastonSN+]

50 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the way we get lots of snow without strong greenland blocking is 13/14 and despite all the snow that winter nyc couldn't get a classic ku from a benchmark storm

100% KU storms are relatively rare. I may be mistaken however I think we only had 6 widespread KU events from 1970 through 1999 (three decades). 

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's the analog from many people on other forums and social media

it has to snow 3" by the end of dec or winter will probably be a dud

[bluewave]

Looks like a colder pattern for the first week of December with a trough in the East. But the fast Pacific flow and storm track through the Lakes is a continuation from recent winters. Moderation in temperatures week 2 as the Southeast Ridge returns.

 

 

[eduggs]

18z GFS is a sweet run for coastal Maine and SE NH and pretty intriguing for EMA and the rest of New England for the Dec. 8th potential event. Too late for us. But it demonstrates potential for rapidly translating a flat mid-level shortwave into a deepening cutoff with SLP capture. Eastern New England is clearly favored and there still isn't much inter-model support, but at least it's something to watch.

[TriPol]

On 11/29/2024 at 7:40 PM, MJO812 said:

My puppy, Cooper, has been preparing for the epic winter everyone’s hyping—despite the complete lack of snow. Yesterday, he stood outside, staring at the sky, waiting for flakes like some kind of canine meteorologist. When nothing happened, he came inside, dragged a bag of flour off the counter, and created his own 'polar vortex' all over the kitchen. So yeah, no snow yet, but Cooper’s determined to live his best winter life regardless!

 

[Allsnow]

22 degrees to start December 

[ForestHillWx]

20 here; local stations show a few 19s down at the bottom of the hill. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Made it down to 18.9

Currently 20.3

[MJO812]

28 here

[IrishRob17]

57 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Made it down to 18.9

Currently 20.3

First teens of the season here, also with a low of 19, 22/16 currently. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

22 degrees to start December 

First time that December 1st dropped  into the 20s in NYC since 2007.

 

Data for December 1 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2023-12-01	51	43	0.41	0.0	0
2022-12-01	43	35	0.00	0.0	0
2021-12-01	49	40	T	0.0	0
2020-12-01	62	37	T	0.0	0
2019-12-01	39	30	0.62	T	0
2018-12-01	46	36	0.05	0.0	0
2017-12-01	52	42	0.00	0.0	0
2016-12-01	54	42	0.07	0.0	0
2015-12-01	51	44	0.33	0.0	0
2014-12-01	65	42	0.09	0.0	0
2013-12-01	49	36	0.00	0.0	0
2012-12-01	41	36	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-01	50	37	0.00	0.0	0
2010-12-01	60	40	1.20	0.0	0
2009-12-01	47	35	0.00	0.0	0
2008-12-01	55	43	0.11	0.0	0
2007-12-01	38	25	0.00	0.0	0

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time that December 1st dropped  into the 20s in NYC since 2007.

 

Data for December 1 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2023-12-01	51	43	0.41	0.0	0
2022-12-01	43	35	0.00	0.0	0
2021-12-01	49	40	T	0.0	0
2020-12-01	62	37	T	0.0	0
2019-12-01	39	30	0.62	T	0
2018-12-01	46	36	0.05	0.0	0
2017-12-01	52	42	0.00	0.0	0
2016-12-01	54	42	0.07	0.0	0
2015-12-01	51	44	0.33	0.0	0
2014-12-01	65	42	0.09	0.0	0
2013-12-01	49	36	0.00	0.0	0
2012-12-01	41	36	0.00	0.0	0
2011-12-01	50	37	0.00	0.0	0
2010-12-01	60	40	1.20	0.0	0
2009-12-01	47	35	0.00	0.0	0
2008-12-01	55	43	0.11	0.0	0
2007-12-01	38	25	0.00	0.0	0

Wow thats insane 

[Allsnow]

16 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the way we get lots of snow without strong greenland blocking is 13/14 and despite all the snow that winter nyc couldn't get a classic ku from a benchmark storm

14/15? 2nd half? 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

14/15? 2nd half? 

14-15 was all ++PDO driven. The PDO spiked at over +3 that winter. It fed back and resulted in virtually non stop +PNA, -EPO, -WPO for months on end. It was the only thing that saved that winter from disaster….it was one of the most +NAO/+AO winters on record. Extremely anomalous pattern

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow thats insane 

December 2007 had frontloaded cold which moderated mid to late month with low 60s as we approached Christmas.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December 2007 had frontloaded cold which moderated mid to late month with low 60s as we approached Christmas.

That winter was horrible 

[donsutherland1]

The week ahead looks cold and mainly dry. A clipper system could bring some light snow or flurries, especially from eastern Pennsylvania into New England late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[dmillz25]

26 for the low here

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That winter was horrible 

For snow it was. After the early-mid December cold snap that winter just completely shut off. There was another short lived cold snap in early January but other than that…November had no snow and the one of warmest Thanksgivings on record, December had 2 minor snow and ice events early/mid month that turned to rain, January had a trace of snow, total, February had a minor snow event that turned to rain around mid month, then the biggest snowstorm of that winter late that month (just over 6 slushy inches in NYC), a very minor snow event the last day of February and that was it, winter ended and never came back, no snow in March, no snow in April

[NittanyWx]

21 hours ago, eduggs said:

We need more STJ involvement. Or we need a ridge axis further west with the s/w for the 8th diving further southwest. As is, the modeling is not close. Any cyclogenesis would happen too late outside DE Maine and the Maritimes. If the STJ links with the follow up wave around the 10th, chances increase for rain. Low expectations are advised for now.

More the ridge axis than anything.

[wdrag]

A couple of thoughts: As long as the ridge remains in AK,  I would think cold shots can reload sewd from Canada east of the Rockies.  These will probably be transient until ne Canada blocking can return after mid month (if it returns?).  For me, the good news is continued ridge in AK in the ensembled modeling through 360 hours... and while there is broad western Atlc-east coast ridging - that suggests to me qpf events.

The other thing I noticed, which Don used in his recent post above..  Unless I'm mistaken ECMWF weeklies update daily... I can be corrected on this.  

Looking back, regarding extremes... This particular week upcoming... EPS did not have a clue as to extremes until about 7-8 days out.    

We see ensembled broad based ridges-troughs but not the potential embedded stronger SW troughs-ridges that make the weather  that will eventually develop. 

[SACRUS]

 

32 / 13 off a low of 20 here.  Some clouds moving through and should see some breaks of sun throughout the day.  Looks like the coldest open first week 7/10 days since Dec 2010.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

December 2007 had frontloaded cold which moderated mid to late month with low 60s as we approached Christmas.

Outside of the first of Dec - this looks forecast similar to 2010 through the 10th or so temp-wise.

[MJO812]

[uofmiami]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 72 (2006)
NYC: 70 (2006)
LGA: 71 (2006)
JFK: 68 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 15 (1976)
NYC: 8 (1875)
LGA: 19 (1976)
JFK: 18 (1967)


Historical:

 

1831 - The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum)

1896 - The temperature at Kipp, MT, rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum)

 

1970: Four tornadoes impacted east-central Wisconsin during the morning hours. The strongest tornado, an F3, formed at 10:15 AM near Medina in Outagamie County.  The twister moved northeast at 50 mph and destroyed twenty barns and five houses. 

1985 - A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Heavy lake effect snow fell downwind of the U.S. Great Lakes. Buffalo, New York reported 16 inches of snow, with thundersnow reported late in the afternoon. While the eastern U.S. experienced much colder than normal temperatures on December 1, much of Alaska was basking in above average warmth. Many daily temperature records were set across this region through the beginning of the month.

2006: A winter storm produced more than 6 inches of snow along a 1,000-mile-long path from central Oklahoma to northern Michigan from November 30-December 1st. The storm also produced significant freezing rain, which impacted the St. Louis area. An estimated 500 or more homes and businesses were without power in the St. Louis area after this storm. 

2007 - During December 1-3, a powerful storm with hurricane force winds struck the Northwest U.S. The storm brought heavy rain and wind gusts over 100 mph, with the highest reading being 129 mph at Bay City, OR. The strong winds brought power lines down, and the heavy rain caused widespread flooding and triggered landslides (BBC News). According to reports, 8 fatalities were attributed to the storm and about 37,000 homes and businesses were left without power in Washington, Oregon, and northern California. President Bush declared a federal disaster in several counties in Washington and Oregon to provide recovery assistance (Associated Press).

2011 - Wind speeds as high as 102 MPH were measured in Centerville, Utah and surrounding cities. Damage was reported throughout Weber and Davis counties ranging from South Ogden down to Bountiful. More than 400 trees were down at the Davis Golf course alone due to the winds. Up to 54,000 residences were without power throughout the day and into the evening. Train service between Layton and Salt Lake City was suspended due to damaged train stations, debris on the train tracks, and power outages. Cleanup costs totaled $8 million in Centerville alone. No injuries were reported from the wind, but a number of injuries were reported from those helping with the cleanup effort.

[Snowlover11]

23 for a low this morning.

[FPizz]

17.4.  

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

32 / 13 off a low of 20 here.  Some clouds moving through and should see some breaks of sun throughout the day.  Looks like the coldest open first week 7/10 days since Dec 2010.

We all remember December 2010 Snow storm, December 26-27, 2010 - Storm Summary that winter featured a strong La Nina and if you go to the beginning of this forum thats the first major snow storm discussed here........