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December 2024


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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It sucks seeing places around us getting snow and nothing here. Not even a coating yet in the city. Awful .

Were you really expecting anything?   Upton had rain for the city.  South winds tough to get anything especially urban areas facing the water

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Round #3 is on its way.  Heavy snow showers/squalls are just west of Allentown.  This activity looks to be low topped as it is just coming into view on the Mt. Holly radar.  Visibility out in that area has really dropped in association with this activity as seen on I78 traffic cams.

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24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Were you really expecting anything?   Upton had rain for the city.  South winds tough to get anything especially urban areas facing the water

Models seemed to have a better area of precip where I am/better lift which may have overcome the lousy wind direction and brought cold enough air down. Also urban heating tacks a few degrees on. I think the first few miles from any shore had little accumulation. 

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39 / 32 coating on the ground with another band or squall to come through.   Some gusts pushing 25 so far and increasing again later.  Colder Thu - Sat.  Warmer Sun - Fri next week, wetter with rain chances Mon - Wed with 0.50 - 1.00 widespread possible.  

 

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

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Cold period (so far)

EWR: 


Dec 1:  39 / 24 (-10)
Dec 2:  42 / 25 (-8)
Dec 3:  44 / 32 (-3)
Dec 4: 42 / 24 (-8)
 

 

NYC:

DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10)
DEC 2:  39 / 29 (-9)
DEC: 3 42 / 32  (-6)
Dec 4:  42 / 30 (-6)

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1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

 

 

They aren't the same. 

 

I have access to the Graphcast platform and people are already downloading the package and attempting to bias correct it in real time.  Graphcast has, in the open source format, so far failed to beat regular ensemble EC forecasts far more often than not.  If there's a skill impovement, I really haven't seen it so far.

Interesting, given the hype about the AI forecasting from Google, which they just published in Nature yesterday.  The performance looks impressive, but I'm certainly not using it to make forecasts and you obviously have evaluated it directly.  I wonder what the difference is between what they've published and the "real world" performance.  

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12/googles-deepmind-tackles-weather-forecasting-with-great-performance/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

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11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting, given the hype about the AI forecasting from Google, which they just published in Nature yesterday.  The performance looks impressive, but I'm certainly not using it to make forecasts and you obviously have evaluated it directly.  I wonder what the difference is between what they've published and the "real world" performance.  

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12/googles-deepmind-tackles-weather-forecasting-with-great-performance/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

If I had a dollar for every vendor, statistical forecast system or weather model that has had selective verification I'd have retired 5 years ago.  They initialized their data of 6z and 18z for a reason.  They couldn't beat it when full observational parameters were assimilated.

 

The bigger issue I've had, and I've seen it first hand, is the ML models are way more prone to having a narrower field of outcomes which skews to underforecasting extremes, often.

 

I mean this really tells the story, the blue line is their model:

image.png.9f4cc2111f2697a1e288509931c92cbf.png

 

 

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