December 2024

[shadowsintherain]

Some flurries in Babylon.


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[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. 

I am ever so slightly optimistic to see cold air return again this winter, only because we actually broke the trend and saw come cold weather...

[North and West]

I am ever so slightly optimistic to see cold air return again this winter, only because we actually broke the trend and saw come cold weather...

It will come back. The fact it’s cold now is nice to see and feel. Who knows what later this month and January have in store, let alone February. It’s the first inning of the game.


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[vegan_edible]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

It will come back. The fact it’s cold now is nice to see and feel. Who knows what later this month and January have in store, let alone February. It’s the first inning of the game.


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for real, i mean the models are having an incredibly difficult time keeping up with things. around mid november the beginning of december was screaming torch, but here we are. ultimately i think most things will moderate out in the long run, warm/cold/warm/cold. its just the nature of living here. obviously none of us know exactly what the winter has in store, but actually having winter type cold in the beginning of december sets a more hopeful tone for this season than years past. also the differences between the EPS and GEFS are so staggering i cant make sense of what will happen, so hopefully we can keep our fingers crossed. im hoping for a wintery feeling holiday week

[WestBabylonWeather]

Official first flakes in west babylon 

[Rjay]

Saw some snow this evening

[eduggs]

The meso models are not enthused about snow prospects Wed night. Maybe they will be wrong and the snow shield will be more widespread, but I doubt it. Downsloping off terrain with a SLP to our NNW rarely works out. Best chance of whitening the ground will probably come with scattered instability snow squalls on Thurs. morning.

[psv88]

Still have managed to miss all of the flurries in the area. It’s cold out but no snow on the horizon. So much for a snowy December 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The meso models are not enthused about snow prospects Wed night. Maybe they will be wrong and the snow shield will be more widespread, but I doubt it. Downsloping off terrain with a SLP to our NNW rarely works out. Best chance of whitening the ground will probably come with scattered instability snow squalls on Thurs. morning.

The Mesos missed the snow squall we had earlier tonight.  To their credit Mt. Holly did outlook it in their AFD.  I would agree on the idea of the best chances being Thursday morning especially north of the city.

[Snowlover11]

Low of 21

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 13F here in the Berkshires. 

[ForestHillWx]

20 here, but I see readings of 13, 15 and 16 down in Gladstone. 

[North and West]

The Mesos missed the snow squall we had earlier tonight.  To their credit Mt. Holly did outlook it in their AFD.  I would agree on the idea of the best chances being Thursday morning especially north of the city.

FWIW, that’s what I always think when I hear nonstop about models. I can’t decipher them - I don’t pretend to and don’t have the expertise or training - but it’s like bullpen matchup management; there are favorabilities and thumbs on the scale, but there’s no script.


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[jm1220]

20 here. 

[bluewave]

I think that the winds will be the biggest story tomorrow. These will be some of the steepest low level lapse rates we have seen this time of year. Models usually underestimate wind gusts in these situations. So there could be gusts in the 50-60 mph range.

[Tatamy]

Six hour maximum wind gusts from the 06z Euro for tomorrow as of 7 pm.

 

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Still have managed to miss all of the flurries in the area. It’s cold out but no snow on the horizon. So much for a snowy December 

Snow in November is never a good sign

[Dark Star]

7 hours ago, Tatamy said:

The Mesos missed the snow squall we had earlier tonight.  To their credit Mt. Holly did outlook it in their AFD.  I would agree on the idea of the best chances being Thursday morning especially north of the city.

For the NYC immediate metro area, (true) snow squalls are rare.  Unless you have a truly dynamic system, they are near impossible to predict with accuracy.  Much like a line of summer T-Storms, once they pass over the eastern Appalachians in eastern PA, then move over the foothills of NJ, the downslope robs most of them of their punch.  

[Snowlover11]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that the winds will be the biggest story tomorrow. These will be some of the steepest low level lapse rates we have seen this time of year. Models usually underestimate wind gusts in these situations. So there could be gusts in the 50-60 mph range.

should be fun driving along the Tappan Zee tomorrow.  It’s windy on a good day.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that the winds will be the biggest story tomorrow. These will be some of the steepest low level lapse rates we have seen this time of year. Models usually underestimate wind gusts in these situations. So there could be gusts in the 50-60 mph range.

Yeah wow. Some drought stricken trees could fall

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

should be fun driving along the Tappan Zee tomorrow.  It’s windy on a good day.

The north-south bridges like the Throggs Neck will probably have more impressive crosswinds with the westerly flow.

[the_other_guy]

19 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Snow in November is never a good sign

actually, historically speaking that’s before the third week of November.

 

Snow when we had it in November and onward is actually a very good sign… historically that is.

[psv88]

19.8. Everything dead before we torch for the next month 

[bluewave]

We are currently ENSO cold neutral as the La Niña is taking time to develop. But if we do follow the typical La Niña pattern, then 3 inches in December is the cutoff. Below that and NYC will have a below average snowfall season. December 2001 and 1996 were cold neutral and only had a T with below average seasons. 

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

[MANDA]

Calm winds with heavy frost here, low of 20.

Some impressive numbers from the spots that radiate well. 

 

[lee59]

20 here this morning

[Brian5671]

Upper teens here this AM.   

[Tatamy]

Low here of 23.  Combination of snow, frost, and black ice didn’t seem to have much impact on temperatures even with calm winds most of the night.

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Calm winds with heavy frost here, low of 20.

Some impressive numbers from the spots that radiate well. 

 

We used to get highs in the teens in December 

[Byrdhousebv]

 

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The north-south bridges like the Throggs Neck will probably have more impressive crosswinds with the westerly flow.

The Driscoll Bridge over the Raritan is nasty during a westerly gust event. Back in my VW Beatle days I experienced a complete lane shift during a squal.