qg_omega Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The UHI in Manhattan has been in effect since the 1890s and Queens since the 1930s to 1950s. But it’s just more obvious when we have calm winds. Plenty of strong high pressure this month for radiational cooling. Big change from last year which is enabling lows to actually be normal to below normal for a change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 47 minutes ago, Cfa said: Fake cold. Went from the teens to the 30’s almost instantly. I’ve seen a lot of interesting/crazy posts on this forum but “fake cold” may be the funniest. Thanks for that, I legit laughed out loud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 45 degrees here. Nice recovery from the mid teens this morning. Feels comfortable out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 January looks chilly at least the first couple weeks. Wonder when the last time we had back to back below average temperature months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: January looks chilly at least the first couple weeks. Wonder when the last time we had back to back below average temperature months. Not just chilly. Ensemble guidance continues to look good for some actual winter weather threats. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: January looks chilly at least the first couple weeks. Wonder when the last time we had back to back below average temperature months. The last back to back below average temperature winter months were December 2017 into January 2018. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 2 hours ago, Cfa said: Fake cold. Went from the teens to the 30’s almost instantly. This temperature inversion won't quit. Did anyone else notice the haze this afternoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 22 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: This temperature inversion won't quit. Did anyone else notice the haze this afternoon? Looks like a haze summer day crossing the bridge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 My fake snow wont melt. Who do i call? 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow as wetter weather moves in. New York City's northern and western suburbs could see some freezing rain late tonight or early tomorrow morning. By late in the day, the temperature will push into the lower and middle 40s in New York City December will close with above normal temperatures and additional periods of rain. The temperature will likely peak in the 60s in Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelpia and the 50s in New York City and Boston. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder. Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. The second week of January will likely feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays. The potential exists for widespread cold anomalies of 6°-10° below normal during that week in that region. On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City. Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980 New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 12.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998 The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was -0.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.650 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.4° (1.7° below normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 39 / 38 cloudy. Warm and wet period now and through the next 4 days. 1 - 2 inches of rain with temps peaking Sunday near or lo2 60s. Colder by the 2nd and much colder roller coaster down 3 -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Records: Highs: EWR: 68 (1982) NYC: 65 (2008) LGA: 65 (2008) JFK: 64 (2008) Lows: EWR: 0 (1933) NYC: 8 (1917) LGA: 12 (2017) JFK: 11 (2017) Historical: 1839 - The third storm in two weeks hit the northeastern U.S. It brought two more feet of snow to Hartford, CT, and Worcester, MA. Whole gales swept the coast causing many wrecks. (David Ludlum) 1897 - The temperature at Dayville, OR, hit 81 degrees to establish a state record for December. (The Weather Channel) 1924 - Iowa experienced it coldest December morning of record. Morning lows averaged 25 degrees below zero for the 104 weather stations across the state. 1955 - Anchorage, AK, was buried under 17.7 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1958 - Albuquerque, NM, received 14.2 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour record. (28th-29th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Up to twenty inches of snow buried southern Minnesota, and 20 to 40 mph northwesterly winds produced snow drifts six feet high, and reduced visibilities to near zero at times in blowing snow. There were a thousand traffic accidents in Michigan during the storm, resulting in thirty-five injuries. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong winds behind a cold front claimed three lives in eastern Pennsylvania, and injured a dozen others in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Maryland. Winds gusted to 87 mph at Hammonton NJ and in the Washington D.C. area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls continued to bring snow to the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow reported near Lake Superior and Lake Ontario. Syracuse NY received 8.5 inches of snow to push the total for the month past their previous December record of 57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003 - A severe snow storm hit northern California and southern Oregon. As much as 2 feet of snow fell along Interstate 5 closing a 150-mile stretch of the interstate, stranding hundreds of travelers. Winds from the storm caused power outages to more than 200,000 customers in California and Oregon. One man died of a heart attack after helping other drivers. (CNN) 2004 - Los Angeles (downtown) broke a daily rainfall record for the month of December (5.55 inches). This was the third wettest calendar day in Los Angeles since records began in 1877. 2005 - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms across portions of the southeast United States on the 28th produced hail, high winds and a few tornadoes. The states of Georgia and Tennessee were the most affected. (NCDC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 NYC Dec 28 1990 : 7.2 inches of snow had fallen overnight into the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 8 days of below avg daily temps will end today with four days of above to much above before falling back down after the new year Dep through 27th solidly below normal for most, next 4 days will reduce the departures but all (outside JFK) will stay below for the month of Dec as a whole. Bit of a roller coaster biased cold thru 27th TTN: -4.1 LGA: -3.3 NYC: -3.2 EWR: -2.3 JFK: -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Cold 38° rain out there. A little over a 1/4" so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 60’s tomorrow? Nams keep us in the 40’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 43 light rain about 0.36 in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 .17" rainfall overnight. No icing. Temperature only briefly dipped to 32 overnight. Currently 40. Average snow depth 1/2" with 50% coverage. Expect only plowed shoveled mounds to remain by the end of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 60’s tomorrow? Nams keep us in the 40’s Late day highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Depends on where the front lands right? I also thing “60s” is a usual exaggeration from the forum warmies. Upper 50s is what I have seen for forecast highs with rainy conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Late day highs? I don’t see it happening around the metro. Maybe C NJ on S will see 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 GFS mainly cold/dry with clipper potential. You really need a sustained western ridge for something better. Probably a colder version of our December pattern. Best odds at something more significant is Jan 10-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS mainly cold/dry with clipper potential. You really need a sustained western ridge for something better. Probably a colder version of our December pattern. Best odds at something more significant is Jan 10-20 The ridge and neg nao looked good to me on the gfs. I don’t see lots of storms crashing into the pac nw. imo best shot is the 6/7th with a overrunning type deal then the cold settles In Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 More on the December 1990 storm 28th https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/12/28/Snow-invades-East/4697662360400/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Depends on where the front lands right? I also thing “60s” is a usual exaggeration from the forum warmies. Upper 50s is what I have seen for forecast highs with rainy conditions. Depends on the front but 60s into OH/PA show the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: More on the December 1990 storm 28th https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/12/28/Snow-invades-East/4697662360400/ An inch was forecast on Christmas then bumped it up to 1-3 then 3-6 but ended up being 6 to 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: An inch was forecast on Christmas then bumped it up to 1-3 then 3-6 but ended up being 6 to 8 Just goes to show how important storm tracks are. The December before that one was the 2nd coldest on record at 25.9° in NYC. But the Northern Stream was so overpowering that NYC only finished with 1.4” of snow as the big snowfall event missed to our south. December 1990 was the 10th warmest on record at 42.6°. But NYC was able to finish the month with 7.2” due to a favorable storm track on one day even in a sea of warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 i just don't like that there's no stj whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The highs already beat guidance today as we are low 50s around NYC and Long Island instead of mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The highs already beat guidance today as we are low 50s around NYC and Long Island instead of mid 40s. It’s elevation dependent for my stations. 230 ASL got to 49 but down to 46 now. 150 ASL been stuck at 41 only for the high. No low 50s to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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