December 2024

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Same as here.  It's fine because it snowed yesterday and before that on Saturday.  By the weekend this snow will be a memory with rain and temps in the 50s.

Yesterday was just some mood flurries here which melted quickly after it ended.  Was nice, but added nothing significant to what's laying on the ground from last Friday.  The sun this afternoon is melting more.   We'll be down to a trace on average for the next period (tomorrow morning).  Already are, but it was nice this morning.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the least trustworthy snow observations come from people who like snow

Sometimes, but this isn't always the case.

 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This wasn't temperature related.  It was about where it snowed vs where it was dry.  Enjoy this weather and never doubt that the Miller B will return.

Have a great holiday!

I had 2" though

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My spot is worse.

10x

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Yesterday was just some mood flurries here which melted quickly after it ended.  Was nice, but added nothing significant to what's laying on the ground from last Friday.  The sun this afternoon is melting more.   We'll be down to a trace on average for the next period (tomorrow morning).  Already are, but it was nice this morning.

Ed, I saw that the skies were clearing out by you early on, the sun only came out here about 20 minutes ago so maybe that delayed the melt here a little.

Merry Christmas, this is the most wintry it's felt around Christmas in a few years.

[Rjay]

In Hicksville now.  Merry Christmas.  

 

[NorthShoreWx]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I had 2" though

I meant yesterday mornings non event.  

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I meant yesterday mornings non event.  

Added a dusting to my snowcover before the afternoon came to vaporized it all lol 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

In Hicksville now.  Merry Christmas.  

 

HO HO HO

How long has the sun been out for you

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Its powder with ice underneath. Drive up here ill serve you dinner. Bring me cookies

canada is too far for a day trip sry 

[NorthShoreWx]

The sun is doing its thing this afternoon:

[donsutherland1]

A cold but dry air mass covers the region. The cold will begin to recede toward the end of the week.  December will close with above normal temperatures and periods of rain. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder.

Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. There is growing potential for the second week of January to feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 12.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +14.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.284 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.9° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cold but dry air mass covers the region. The cold will begin to recede toward the end of the week.  December will close with above normal temperatures and periods of rain. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder.

Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. There is growing potential for the second week of January to feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 12.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +14.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.284 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.9° below normal).

 

Don when did the December so-called average temperature become so high? I distinctly remember December average temperatures being around 36 only a couple of decades ago.

 

[wdrag]

We'll see if the EPS trends same latitudinally or trends south the next 24 hours for the NY Day storm. For me, its getting interesting for marginal elevation snow and ice I84 as wet bulbs could cool if the 5H cools enough. 

fwiw...Canadian and now the EC have ice to near NYC Saturday morning the 28th.   No threads on 12/28 or late 123/31, yet but monitoring (even if most folks dont care about ice).  

 

[RU848789]

Still have over 2" on most of our property... so pretty to look at and walk in.  Had a very nice Christmas with our son and his fiancee.  Presents, all kinds of apps, burgers and dogs (top line butcher meats), an ice cream sundae orgy and now watching the Princess Bride. Happy Holidays all!https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don when did the December so-called average temperature become so high? I distinctly remember December average temperatures being around 36 only a couple of decades ago.

 

1991-20 is much warmer than 1981-10. December 2015 played a big role in contributing to that outcome.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Still have over 2" on most of our property... so pretty to look at and walk in.  Had a very nice Christmas with our son and his fiancee.  Presents, all kinds of apps, burgers and dogs (top line butcher meats), an ice cream sundae orgy and now watching the Princess Bride. Happy Holidays all!https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

The sun this afternoon melted some of the snowcover here, went from 80% down to about 60% by sunset.

 

[wdrag]

Added for Saturday morning concerns near and inland from I95.  A bit of hazardous ice on all untreated surfaces due to the many days of frozen ground.  Note this brings the ice risk pretty close to the big cities Philly-NY-BOS. 

[gravitylover]

43 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Added for Saturday morning concerns near and inland from I95.  A bit of hazardous ice on all untreated surfaces due to the many days of frozen ground.  Note this brings the ice risk pretty close to the big cities Philly-NY-BOS. 

That's an oddly sharp cutoff from eastern Putnam heading north. What's up with that?

[BxEngine]

White boxing day. Go figure. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 degrees. About 7 lower than forecast. Snow on the ground helps. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

1991-20 is much warmer than 1981-10. December 2015 played a big role in contributing to that outcome.

Don what are the 30 year average December averages since 1941-1970, 51-80, 61-90, 71-00, 81-2010, and 1991-2020 for Central Park and Poughkeepsie?
 

I am curious to see if UHI effect has had any difference in the continuing rise in December averages vs places that don't have that influence. 

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

7 degrees. About 7 lower than forecast. Snow on the ground helps. 

Definitely dropped lower than thought, I was surprised to see 6 degrees on the Davis. 

[snywx]

5 for a low here.. 

didn’t expect this at all

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don what are the 30 year average December averages since 1941-1970, 51-80, 61-90, 71-00, 81-2010, and 1991-2020 for Central Park and Poughkeepsie?
 

I am curious to see if UHI effect has had any difference in the continuing rise in December averages vs places that don't have that influence. 

I'd also like to know how the average would change if we threw out December 2015.

 

Warmest December I have ever experienced-- December 2015

Coldest December I have ever experienced-- December 1989

Interestingly, neither saw much snow!

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don what are the 30 year average December averages since 1941-1970, 51-80, 61-90, 71-00, 81-2010, and 1991-2020 for Central Park and Poughkeepsie?
 

I am curious to see if UHI effect has had any difference in the continuing rise in December averages vs places that don't have that influence. 

I suspect that NYC's proximity to a warming ocean may be the larger driver than UHI. For example, Bridgeport has also seen a large increase in December temperatures during recent years.

Apparently, the POU site has moved around a number of times. That may also impact the POU numbers. See @bluewave's post.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd also like to know how the average would change if we threw out December 2015.

 

Warmest December I have ever experienced-- December 2015

Coldest December I have ever experienced-- December 1989

Interestingly, neither saw much snow!

 

NYC would drop 0.4° were December 2015 eliminated from the data.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that NYC's proximity to a warming ocean may be the larger driver than UHI. For example, Bridgeport has also seen a large increase in December temperatures during recent years.

Don, is December our most quickly warming month?

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, snywx said:

5 for a low here.. 

didn’t expect this at all

Clear and calm with a mega inversion

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that NYC's proximity to a warming ocean may be the larger driver than UHI. For example, Bridgeport has also seen a large increase in December temperatures during recent years.

My guess is that there is an issue with the long range POU data since there may have been location moves over the years. BGM has also seen a similar temperature rise in December as White Plains and NYC. Other stations like ISP and New Brunswick have seen a steady warming also.