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December 2024


TriPol
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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The subsurface looks mild though, at least last I checked.  would not be surprised if thats still the case if it fades fairly quick in the next 4 weeks 

We are still getting the La Niña temperature progression which usually features below average temperatures in December. But the Pacific Jet was faster than other +PNA La Niña Decembers. So NYC and Newark weren’t able to get the 6-14” totals that we got during those Decembers. My guess is that the December +PNA will finish as the strongest of winter. You can see the PNA going more neutral in early January. 

IMG_2517.thumb.png.fa8fd26652e3cada5465448fb151d61d.png

 

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The model support for cold in January has continued to increase. At the end of the 12z run of the GFS, the 500 mb pattern lies somewhat between Clusters 1 and 2 for multi-day outbreaks of severe cold during January 1-15.

12z GFS:

image.thumb.png.94b398fc76f66a05065b4534d41e7e4d.png

image.png.de08b834df99ac826a56afa509bbbb64.png

The point is not to take the operational GFS verbatim, much less at the timeframe involved. The key point is that the operational GFS has taken a step toward the consistent cold being shown on the ECMWF weekly guidance. If the weekly guidance is correct, one should see the operational guidance move toward the weekly guidance.

ECMWF Weeklies (12/23):

image.thumb.png.4d1bfde064bcf9d90553c33ec6a524ce.png

As early as 240 hours, the EPS is evolving toward a colder pattern, though not a severely cold one.

image.png.f06e56f85d9e76bf18ae482d4ec3109e.png

Source regions of the air masses will become important as the colder pattern evolves. It remains possible that the EPS is rushing the evolution.

Finally, although the pattern shown is not a classic one for 6" or greater snowstorms for the first half of January in the NYC area, it is moving in a direction where the prospect of at least moderate snowfalls (4"+) will be greater than it was during all of December. Short waves and other synoptic details will be critical.

image.png.61ae22b75f197902196693cc9ab1c15c.png

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1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

This is great Don.  Laid it out perfectly.  If we can get some base hits in that pattern I’d take it all day long esp. if we can have snow OTG for a couple weeks.  That’d be a big change vs recent winters.  

If January 2009 is a possible analog, I'd expect a few small to moderate sized snowfall events but long duration snowcover because of the cold.

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

we need this fucking sun to set. a lot of melt going on with the warmer temperatures. I was hoping the clouds would stick around to the middle of the afternoon to take away the worst of it.

well the sun is going down now or at least it's low enough now that it looks pretty dark outside.

It hit 40 here.

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