December 2024

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

remember it well 

 

that was hands down one of the best winters ever-- right after one of the best summers ever

[NEG NAO]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

that was hands down one of the best winters ever

yes - but 95-96 takes the cake.........

 

[steve392]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The last time we had a white Christmas in Westchester was 2017. I remember because we just moved into the house.

 

When was the last time the city had a white Christmas? It has been a while!

2002 or 2003 I believe. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

2002 or 2003 I believe. 

5 inches here in 2002

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

yes - but 95-96 takes the cake.........

 

Yep, and they were actually quite similar.  Both featured December MECS then a multiweek break in January and then winter came roaring back in February and March.  The big difference was 95-96 had the January 1996 blizzard, there was nothing that huge in 1966-67.  But many more moderate events that stacked up, especially later in the season.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

5 inches here in 2002

That really came after Christmas though

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The last time we had a white Christmas in Westchester was 2017. I remember because we just moved into the house.

 

When was the last time the city had a white Christmas? It has been a while!

It looks like 2” at Central Park in 2009 when it was measured that was left from a big snow 12/19-20 but it was melting rapidly due to rain falling and thus was gone by 12/26:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, and they were actually quite similar.  Both featured December MECS then a multiweek break in January and then winter came roaring back in February and March.  The big difference was 95-96 had the January 1996 blizzard, there was nothing that huge in 1966-67.  But many more moderate events that stacked up, especially later in the season.

yes - 2 favorite xmas's were 1966 and 2010 - 2010 because we were tracking the next day Boxing Day Blizzard - which is the first Major Snowstorm documented and discussed on this site 14 years ago.....who is still posting here from those days ?

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So far this winter is starting out different than the past few winters.

In terms of temperatures we were colder than December 2023 and 2021 and not that much colder than 2022. Even though snowfall has been better than December 2021 to 2023, the snowfall has been well below what past La Niña +PNA Decembers had. This has been due to the faster Pacific Jet causing the +PNA ridge to drift further east at times. Our past +PNA La Niña Decembers were also mostly colder than this year with 7”-14” at Newark. The ridge also stayed anchored further west allowing better December very snowy benchmark storm tracks. So far from the very low bar of the last few Decembers were are doing better which is good. But very strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet didn’t  relax enough for the colder and snowier outcomes in the other +PNA Decembers in 2020, 2017, 2005,2000, and 1995.

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It looks like 2” at Central Park in 2009 when it was measured that was left from a big snow 12/19-20 but it was melting rapidly due to rain falling and thus was gone by 12/26:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Snow fell 12 inches between the 19/20th and some remained during Christmas in 20090 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In terms of temperatures we were colder than December 2023 and 2021 and not that much colder than 2022. Even though snowfall has been better than December 2021 to 2023, the snowfall has been well below what past La Niña +PNA Decembers had. This has been due to the faster Pacific Jet causing the +PNA ridge to drift further east at times. Our past +PNA La Niña Decembers were also mostly colder than this year with 7”-14” at Newark. The ridge also stayed anchored further West allowing better December very snowy benchmark storm tracks. So far from the very low bar of the last few Decembers were are doing better which is good. But very strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet didn’t  relax enough for the colder and snowier outcomes in the other +PNA Decembers in 2020, 2017, 2005,2000, and 1995.

Pretty weak La Nina?

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That really came after Christmas though

That was a rapidly changing rain to snow on christmas afternoon from a coastal / noreaster.  

[SACRUS]

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Pretty weak La Nina?

It has caught up in the last few days. Took longer than usual following past El Niños due to the record global SST warmth. So this one is a bit of a late bloomer.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

That was a rapidly changing rain to snow on christmas afternoon from a coastal / noreaster.  

I suppose it counts as a white Christmas if there was at least an inch on the ground by 7 PM Christmas evening (the last regular measurement of the day)?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In terms of temperatures we were colder than December 2023 and 2021 and not that much colder than 2022. Even though snowfall has been better than December 2021 to 2023, the snowfall has been well below what past La Niña +PNA Decembers had. This has been due to the faster Pacific Jet causing the +PNA ridge to drift further east at times. Our past +PNA La Niña Decembers were also mostly colder than this year with 7”-14” at Newark. The ridge also stayed anchored further west allowing better December very snowy benchmark storm tracks. So far from the very low bar of the last few Decembers were are doing better which is good. But very strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet didn’t  relax enough for the colder and snowier outcomes in the other +PNA Decembers in 2020, 2017, 2005,2000, and 1995.

What's causing this very fast Pacific Jet Chris?  I read somewhere that temperature differences between north and south can cause the Jet to speed up.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes - 2 favorite xmas's were 1966 and 2010 - 2010 because we were tracking the next day Boxing Day Blizzard - which is the first Major Snowstorm documented and discussed on this site 14 years ago.....who is still posting here from those days ?

The famous GFS Miracle, probably our greatest positive bust of all time!

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has caught up in the last few days. Took longer than usual following past El Niños due to the record global SST warmth. So this one is a bit of a late bloomer.

 

I'm sure next year's severe and tropical season will be more active than this one was.

[Stormlover74]

On 2/4/2024 at 6:28 PM, Allsnow said:

 

we did get lucky with a couple storms but wasn't exactly cold. just barely cold enough

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What's causing this very fast Pacific Jet Chris?  I read somewhere that temperature differences between north and south can cause the Jet to speed up.

 

It really started in 2018-2019. Probably a combination of things. Forcing near the Maritime Continent, +EAMT events, and SST gradient over the Western to Central Pacific. 

[BxEngine]

I sure as f*ck will not be here all day xmas eve hiding posts. Discuss the weather. Im not hiding any more posts im giving year timeouts. Enough childish bs. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

we did get lucky with a couple storms but wasn't exactly cold. just barely cold enough

Nice fine! 
 

I can’t believe how long we have been chasing this pattern 

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It has caught up in the last few days. Took longer than usual following past El Niños due to the record global SST warmth. So this one is a bit of a late bloomer.

 

The subsurface looks mild though, at least last I checked.  would not be surprised if thats still the case if it fades fairly quick in the next 4 weeks 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nice fine! 
 

I can’t believe how long we have been chasing this pattern 

one more, I think right after is when they started backing off. The week we did do well was actually supposed to be before the pattern change

 

On 2/5/2024 at 3:15 PM, Allsnow said:

 

 

[Allsnow]

Month total in NYC with be 2.8 

ewr 3.8 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

we did get lucky with a couple storms but wasn't exactly cold. just barely cold enough

the "cold" was muted and didn't last all that long-we spent all last winter chasing it and we got 2  short periods of cold in a sea of warmth...what's different this year is we have had early cold and some lights snows...so there's hope for a more prolonged pattern this winter.

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

one more, I think right after is when they started backing off. The week we did do well was actually supposed to be before the pattern change

 

 

Pain 

[lee59]

1 inch of new snow this morning in Central Park. About a 1/4 inch here, if that.

[MJO812]

Gfs caving.  Getting colder on the models.

[SnowGoose69]

The most shocking thing on the 12Z Ops is the CMC/GFS look nearly the same D8-10.  The bad thing is it does not take an expert to see the Pac flow is still insanely fast at D10