December 2024

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am not sure they are able to get out there and measure if a precip change happens or the snow ends well before a measurement time.  it seems they just do the standard 7am-1pm-7pm-1am measurements 

Sounds like Bridgeport-they seem to undermeasure snow.   Blizz of 96 they had 14 inches-most surrounding areas had 20-24

[RU848789]

52 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The ending to the Illinois game was one of the worst losses in school history imo 

Was just brutal.  I like Schiano as a program builder, teacher of young men, and mostly as a coach, but on occasion, he makes some bonehead decisions and calling TO when IL was going to try a 58 yard FG into a 20 mph wind on 4th and 13 with 15 seconds left was the worst ever.  After calling TO just as the ball was snapped, the kick was still attempted as often happens and was 20 yards short, so the IL coach knew there was no chance and they called a pass play instead and scored a TD after every RU defender whiffed on the WR.  Ugh.  

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Sounds like Bridgeport-they seem to undermeasure snow.   Blizz of 96 they had 14 inches-most surrounding areas had 20-24

Fairfield Norwalk and Darien all reported 27 inches on that storm and I think Bridgeport reported a 15.1 LOL

[WxDom]

Our CPK observers do take the typical measurements every 6 hours, along with when there is a changeover or end to the snow.

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

On another board someone said they measure at 7am and that's it.  Even if it's still snowing which it was the other day-that's outrageous.

 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

On another board someone said they measure at 7am and that's it.  Even if it's still snowing which it was the other day-that's outrageous.

I believe that reference to a single measurement pertained to the measurement of snow depth for a white Christmas.

 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly

Modles still look really good moving forward. Weeklies are loaded along with the eps

 Enjoy the snow tomorrow 

Ensembles and weeklies only get good after Jan. 6 or so. And the favorable period may not last more than a week. Plus ensembles have only modest reliability at that range. Ultimately snow vs no snow will come down to nuanced shortwave interactions as always. So applying some realistic skepticism of a "wildly amazing pattern" is warranted IMO. We go through this almost every year and seem to end up disappointed more often than not.

That said, I think optimism is warranted too. It's better to see ensembles looking favorable than the other way around. It's just helpful to remember that statistics are generally against us when it comes to snowfall.

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, WxDom said:

Our CPK observers do take the typical measurements every 6 hours, along with when there is a changeover or end to the snow.

 

Thx...so on Saturday they did measure when the snow stopped around 8-9 AM for the final amt?

[eduggs]

I gotta admit this upcoming New Year's period looks disgusting: cold and wet. It kind of spoils the festive feel from this recent bit of wintry weather. What an ugly synoptic setup.

[eduggs]

The RGEM has a distinct swirl of vorticity slide through on Thursday evening. A few other models also have this minor feature. Wdrag mentioned it yesterday in the N&W thread. It looks dry for now but might bear watching for another refresher.

[NEG NAO]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This subforum makes me go insane

anything past 5  days on the models is pure speculation and not written in stone as some would lead you to believe around here.........proven so far this winter by many predicting a mild December..........

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Fairfield Norwalk and Darien all reported 27 inches on that storm and I think Bridgeport reported a 15.1 LOL

I love that .1 they added to the end to give the illusion of extreme accuracy LOL

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the consistent undermeasurement of snowfall there since the NWS left in the early 90s, maybe the actual December cutoff for above or below seasonal snow during a La Niña is somewhere between the 3”-4” range. I have been using 3” since that is how the measurements have gone in the official records. So the actual level if there was correct measurement would probably be somewhere in the 3.0” to 4.0” range. 

I wonder what the exact figure is (not that it really matters).... for example in a La Nina winter what is the minimum amount of snow that has fallen in December that had at least 25" of snowfall?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The day got off to a frigid start. The low temperature in New York City was 13° while it was 11° in Philadelphia. Outside the cities, widespread single-digit readings were recorded. Low temperatures included:

Albany: -4°
Allentown:1°
Atlantic City: 8°
Boston: 10°
Bridgeport: 9°
Danbury: 2°
Farmingdale: 11°
Groton: 7°
Hartford: 5°
Islip: 10°
Meriden: 6°
Montgomery: -5°
Mount Pocono: -9°
New Haven: 10°
New York City-Central Park: 13°
New York City-JFK Airport: 12°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 12°
Newark: 11°
Oxford: 0°
Philadelphia: 11°
Poughkeepsie: -2°
Providence: 9°
Reading: 8°
Trenton: 5°
Westhampton: 1°
White Plains:6°
Wilmington, DE: 9°
Worcester: 4°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Snow showers are likely as a clipper passes north of the region. Parts of the region could experience a heavier snow shower or snow squall that could briefly create low visibilities and drop a coating to an inch of snow with a few locally higher amounts.

The cold will begin to recede late in the week.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder. Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 11.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

In past days, an occasional run of the operational GFS showed a significant snowstorm from Washington, DC to New York City. However, the pattern makes such an event very unlikely for this region. Since 1950, there were 5 December snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of these cities. Four (80%) occurred with a PNA+/NAO- pattern. The NAO is forecast to be positive. In addition, three (60%) occurred when the MJO was in Phase 8, which is not likely over the next 10 days. Only the December 23-25, 1966 event produced 6" or more snow in all three cities with a positive NAO, but the AO was strongly negative (< -2.000), which is not likely during the next 10 days. In sum, the interior sections will be far more favored for an appreciable or perhaps greater snowfall than the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia-New York City area over the next 10 days. A smaller snowfall remains plausible, as occurred during December 20-21 and is possible from tomorrow's snow showers or snow squall.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -0.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.590 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.0° (2.1° below normal).

 

Don what were the lows for Mt Pocono and Scranton, if you have them? Thanks

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

As long as I can remember, and I'm 62, getting a decent snow in Dec ( I will consider 2-3 decent ) usually signals at least a couple more events for the winter; being La Nina the window is probably short, though....

I can tell you this, December snowfalls are MUCH more enjoyable than March snowfalls.

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

anything past 5  days on the models is pure speculation and not written in stone as some would lead you to believe around here.........proven so far this winter by many predicting a mild December..........

This is true. A colder correction wouldn't surprise me though neither would a delay. 

Still appears that the Jan 5-15 period will be the best one for us. Anything before that seems unlikely to yield much, if anything. 

I also don't see a blowtorch Feb. I like the CFS idea. 

[SACRUS]

 

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what were the lows for Mt Pocono and Scranton, if you have them? Thanks

Scranton -2 (tied record from 1960) and Mount Pocono -9 (old record: -6, 1989).

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Scranton -2 (tied record from 1960) and Mount Pocono -9 (old record: -6, 1989).

Thanks Don it's interesting that our usual great radiational cooling spots like KFOK and KMJX never got to 0 or below.

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don it's interesting that our usual great radiational cooling spots like KFOK and KMJX never got to 0 or below.

At FOX it was just enough of a north breeze most of the night

[donsutherland1]

HRRR for tomorrow morning:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Thx...so on Saturday they did measure when the snow stopped around 8-9 AM for the final amt?

I think his silence is your answer. Of course they didn't.
 

They did what they usually do. They measured at 7 AM. Snow stopped about 9 AM and they measured again around 1 PM when everything had begun melting and compressing and came up with 1.8 like nothing happened between 7-9 am. It' the same old story, they can say what they want. There is no consistency in the protocol to measurements being done in the park. They may as well give it back to the zookeeper. It can't get much worse. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think his silence is your answer. Of course they didn't.
 

They did what they usually do. They measured at 7 AM. Snow stopped about 9 AM and they measured again around 1 PM when everything had begun melting and compressing and came up with 1.8 like nothing happened between 7-9 am. It' the same old story, they can say what they want. There is no consistency in the protocol to measurements being done in the park. They may as well give it back to the zookeeper. It can't get much worse. 

Imagine if Central Park had a 30" snowstorm like JFK did in January 2016 and the measured amount was like 29" at 1 am and another inch fell until the snow ended at 3 am and they didn't measure again until 7 am and missed that extra inch.  On top of that all the airports recorded 30"+ People would be really pissed that they undermeasured a once in a lifetime storm at Central Park.

[MJO812]

Euro and eps loaded with potential

 

[dmillz25]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Imagine if Central Park had a 30" snowstorm like JFK did in January 2016 and the measured amount was like 29" at 1 am and another inch fell until the snow ended at 3 am and they didn't measure again until 7 am and missed that extra inch.  On top of that all the airports recorded 30"+ People would be really pissed that they undermeasured a once in a lifetime storm at Central Park.

They almost did in 2016. “Finished” with 26.9” and they revised it to 27.5”

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and eps loaded with potential

 

For what time periods ?

[bluewave]

The December La Nina cutoff for above average seasonal snowfall at Newark is closer to 4”. It’s probably a little higher than the 3” at NYC since they measure more frequently than NYC before the snow has a chance to melt or settle. So the 3” measurements are actually closer to 4” in NYC if they measured at the end of the snow instead of waiting up to 6 hours. The only time that a lower December snowfall total worked out at Newark last 30 years was the 16-17 La Nina. The reason this works out for our area is due to La Ninas being frontloaded by nature. So the above average La Niña snowfall winters have a snowy start.

Newark December La Nina snowfall and seasonal totals

2024….2.5”……?

2022….0.1”…..2.7”

2021…..0.1”….17.9”

2020…11.9”….45.7”

2017….7.7”…..39.4”

2016….3.4”….30.0”

2011…..0……..8.8”

2010….24.5”….68.2”

2008….8.3”…..27.1”

2007…..3.9”….14.6”

2005….11.0”….37.9”

2000….14.9”….39.3”

1999……T……..18.4”

1998……1.2”…..12.8”

1995……12.8”….78.4”

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For what time periods ?

January 4 onward

[wxman]

Nice burst of snow.  24 degrees.

[SACRUS]

 

27 / 19 some light snow commencing.  Coating to an inch by noon, then clearing out.  Warmest day of the last 4.   Warmeer wetter close to the month Sat - Tue with another 1 inch of liquid for many.  Beyond there colder after the 2nd, but not looking as cold (dep-wise) as this last blast or earlier in the month.

 

[EWR757]

9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I think his silence is your answer. Of course they didn't.
 

They did what they usually do. They measured at 7 AM. Snow stopped about 9 AM and they measured again around 1 PM when everything had begun melting and compressing and came up with 1.8 like nothing happened between 7-9 am. It' the same old story, they can say what they want. There is no consistency in the protocol to measurements being done in the park. They may as well give it back to the zookeeper. It can't get much worse. 

It seems the way we measure snowfall these days isn't ideal, either.   It's overinflated compared to previous generations measurements, no?

Snowfall is already difficult to measure.   Using a snowboard, wind, measuring every six hours.  If an observer does this by the book the results are likely significantly inflated compared to a maximum daily snow depth.  

I think it would be good to revisit how we all measure snowfall.   There is so much subjectivity and inflation I'm not sure the numbers mean than much. 

 

I remember living in the Midwest with a day of lake effect snow.   It may have snowed 30" for the event in a day, but the snowdepth at any given time never exceeds 16".  Silliness.