December 2024

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm optimistic we see a favorable window at some point during January.  I just don't know when. 

Patience pattern? 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Epic pattern haha.

 

Looks good for Minnesota and NNE

 

agreed with @Rjay

You seem more negative than you used to be about potential winter weather - you also called for no snow at all for NYC Metro the other day, which was surprising.  C'mon, we got a nice 3.3" the other day a bit more likely tomorrow and while long range patterns are always a bit iffy, it's at least positive to see nice teleconnection signals for a change.  

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

You seem more negative than you used to be about potential winter weather - you also called for no snow at all for NYC Metro the other day, which was surprising.  C'mon, we got a nice 3.3" the other day a bit more likely tomorrow and while long range patterns are always a bit iffy, it's at least positive to see nice teleconnection signals for a change.  

Exactly

Modles still look really good moving forward. Weeklies are loaded along with the eps

 Enjoy the snow tomorrow 

[lee59]

Calling for less than a 1/2 inch here tomorrow morning, not much different than the call the other morning but ended up with 21/2 inches. Maybe it can overachieve a little and have a white Christmas. Still have most of the snow left from the other day.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This subforum makes me go insane

It’s just weather pal. Nobody has any control over it. Enjoy the Soto signing and the holidays

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Calling for less than a 1/2 inch here tomorrow morning, not much different than the call the other morning but ended up with 21/2 inches. Maybe it can overachieve a little and have a white Christmas. Still have most of the snow left from the other day.

Most likely no since it's a fast mover and will be out pretty quickly. I'd say 1.5" is the max for a few lucky spots up north or west but most of us end up <1"

[North and West]

This subforum makes me go insane

have you tried being a Mets fan


.

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Calling for less than a 1/2 inch here tomorrow morning, not much different than the call the other morning but ended up with 21/2 inches. Maybe it can overachieve a little and have a white Christmas. Still have most of the snow left from the other day.

Wow, you had 10.5"?  

[RU848789]

Just now, North and West said:

have you tried being a Mets fan


.

That's easy - try being a Rutgers fan, lol.  

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

have you tried being a Mets fan


.

I see what you did there. Lol

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s just weather pal. Nobody has any control over it. Enjoy the Soto signing and the holidays

its nit them weather. it is knowledgeable people acting like morons because they forgot to take a happy pill.

 

imagine an objective forum. imagine 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So everyone is good pretending 1.8 inches of snow fell in Central Park yesterday? Maybe we should just start quoting LGA numbers for what actually has occured snowfall wise in the city.
 

Why keep referencing something we know is incorrect? It's like seeing someone wandering off or losing their train of thought constantly and insisting they're mentally competent. No one in particular just a general statement. 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

You seem more negative than you used to be about potential winter weather - you also called for no snow at all for NYC Metro the other day, which was surprising.  C'mon, we got a nice 3.3" the other day a bit more likely tomorrow and while long range patterns are always a bit iffy, it's at least positive to see nice teleconnection signals for a change.  

At the time it looked like NYC was going to get skunked between the costal and ivt. The short range models didn’t start showing the potential until 12z on the 20th. I’m happy I was wrong, this cold shot with snow has been perfectly placed for the holiday. 

[weatherpruf]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly

Modles still look really good moving forward. Weeklies are loaded along with the eps

 Enjoy the snow tomorrow 

As long as I can remember, and I'm 62, getting a decent snow in Dec ( I will consider 2-3 decent ) usually signals at least a couple more events for the winter; being La Nina the window is probably short, though....

[Allsnow]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

As long as I can remember, and I'm 62, getting a decent snow in Dec ( I will consider 2-3 decent ) usually signals at least a couple more events for the winter; being La Nina the window is probably short, though....

I agree with this! Great post 

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's easy - try being a Rutgers fan, lol.  

I can top that, try being a US Men's team soccer fan. Thrilled just to not lose by multiple goals.....

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

As long as I can remember, and I'm 62, getting a decent snow in Dec ( I will consider 2-3 decent ) usually signals at least a couple more events for the winter; being La Nina the window is probably short, though....

All in All this is turning into a close to normal December in the metro - temp and snowfall..........and this will be considered a White Christmas in some parts of the metro with at least 1 inch on the ground

 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

That's easy - try being a Rutgers fan, lol.  

The ending to the Illinois game was one of the worst losses in school history imo 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s just weather pal. Nobody has any control over it. Enjoy the Soto signing and the holidays

I'm kidding man. Enjoy the holidays .

21 minutes ago, North and West said:

have you tried being a Mets fan


.

The agony

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

As long as I can remember, and I'm 62, getting a decent snow in Dec ( I will consider 2-3 decent ) usually signals at least a couple more events for the winter; being La Nina the window is probably short, though....

I believe in 98-99 we had the Christmas eve event and then our biggest storm came in March that year 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I believe in 98-99 we had the Christmas eve event and then our biggest storm came in March that year 

Yeah much stronger La Nina though and the high latitudes were may more unfavorable that winter, we still had alot of storms though and January was very cold early.  Also had a near miss in February, that winter was like 95-96 compared to winters recently 

[Rjay]

51 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Patience pattern? 

Patience > Buckle up

any day

[lee59]

29 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Wow, you had 10.5"?  

I really overachieved. OK 2.5 inches. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah much stronger La Nina though and the high latitudes were may more unfavorable that winter, we still had alot of storms though and January was very cold early.  Also had a near miss in February, that winter was like 95-96 compared to winters recently 

Oh ok. I wasn't here that winter except for christmas so don't really remember what happened. Was my only Chicago winter and managed to be there for the big new years storm they had which I think at the time was their 2nd biggest

[donsutherland1]

The day got off to a frigid start. The low temperature in New York City was 13° while it was 11° in Philadelphia. Outside the cities, widespread single-digit readings were recorded. Low temperatures included:

Albany: -4°
Allentown:1°
Atlantic City: 8°
Boston: 10°
Bridgeport: 9°
Danbury: 2°
Farmingdale: 11°
Groton: 7°
Hartford: 5°
Islip: 10°
Meriden: 6°
Montgomery: -5°
Mount Pocono: -9°
New Haven: 10°
New York City-Central Park: 13°
New York City-JFK Airport: 12°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 12°
Newark: 11°
Oxford: 0°
Philadelphia: 11°
Poughkeepsie: -2°
Providence: 9°
Reading: 8°
Trenton: 5°
Westhampton: 1°
White Plains:6°
Wilmington, DE: 9°
Worcester: 4°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. Snow showers are likely as a clipper passes north of the region. Parts of the region could experience a heavier snow shower or snow squall that could briefly create low visibilities and drop a coating to an inch of snow with a few locally higher amounts.

The cold will begin to recede late in the week.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder. Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 26.7"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 11.6"; Record: 17.4", 1997-1998

In past days, an occasional run of the operational GFS showed a significant snowstorm from Washington, DC to New York City. However, the pattern makes such an event very unlikely for this region. Since 1950, there were 5 December snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of these cities. Four (80%) occurred with a PNA+/NAO- pattern. The NAO is forecast to be positive. In addition, three (60%) occurred when the MJO was in Phase 8, which is not likely over the next 10 days. Only the December 23-25, 1966 event produced 6" or more snow in all three cities with a positive NAO, but the AO was strongly negative (< -2.000), which is not likely during the next 10 days. In sum, the interior sections will be far more favored for an appreciable or perhaps greater snowfall than the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia-New York City area over the next 10 days. A smaller snowfall remains plausible, as occurred during December 20-21 and is possible from tomorrow's snow showers or snow squall.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop persists. On the December 19 outlook, 56% of dynamical models but 0% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -0.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.590 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.0° (2.1° below normal).

 

[gravitylover]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So everyone is good pretending 1.8 inches of snow fell in Central Park yesterday? Maybe we should just start quoting LGA numbers for what actually has occured snowfall wise in the city.
 

Why keep referencing something we know is incorrect? It's like seeing someone wandering off or losing their train of thought constantly and insisting they're mentally competent. No one in particular just a general statement. 

It's like when your wife gets to the third sentence and you fade out and then, of course, she asks you what she just said. 

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So everyone is good pretending 1.8 inches of snow fell in Central Park yesterday? Maybe we should just start quoting LGA numbers for what actually has occured snowfall wise in the city.
 

Why keep referencing something we know is incorrect? It's like seeing someone wandering off or losing their train of thought constantly and insisting they're mentally competent. No one in particular just a general statement. 

With the consistent undermeasurement of snowfall there since the NWS left in the early 90s, maybe the actual December cutoff for above or below seasonal snow during a La Niña is somewhere between the 3”-4” range. I have been using 3” since that is how the measurements have gone in the official records. So the actual level if there was correct measurement would probably be somewhere in the 3.0” to 4.0” range. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

With the consistent undermeasurement of snowfall there since the NWS left in the early 90s, maybe the actual December cutoff for above or below seasonal snow during a La Niña is somewhere between 3-4 inches. I have been using 3” since that is how the measurements have gone in the official records. So the actual level if there was direct measurement would probably be somewhere in the 3.0” to 4.0” range.

On another board someone said they measure at 7am and that's it.  Even if it's still snowing which it was the other day-that's outrageous.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

On another board someone said they measure at 7am and that's it.  Even if it's still snowing which it was the other day-that's outrageous.

I am not sure they are able to get out there and measure if a precip change happens or the snow ends well before a measurement time.  it seems they just do the standard 7am-1pm-7pm-1am measurements