December 2024

[wdrag]

Concerned about a lot of things:

 

 Drought monitor not moving.

All the warmth that's coming... as someone posted, it will be mins especially around 12/28-30... still allows ice I84.  

It's also looking above normal precip to me, 12/30-1/6 and maybe beyond?

Agree on Tomer's post on storm potential. 

If I can suggest... for lr try using 850 temps for above or below normal temps instead of the 2M for these long range outlooks. 2M doesn't always transfer well from aloft.  

 

I'll be offline all day... have some fun. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, Blizzwalker said:

The La Nina--"3 inches or more in December" rule for NYC. In above posts, it's mentioned that this rule has generally yielded correct predictions for remainder of winter snowfall in NYC.  

It's been mostly correct since 95-96.  So the LaNina winters over last 29 years. It's been some time since I took statistics, but a sample size of 14 seems quite small to use in claiming a strong correlation between La Nina December snow and winter total.  Sure, there is this small sample appearing to offer predictive power, but does it stand up if a bigger sample is used ? I know weather records only go back so far, but does anyone have data about this relationship for last 50 years ? 100 years ? My point is unless a bigger sample is used, maybe we should be cautious in how much we rely on this rule.

The sample size is reflective of our warmer modern climate. But it even worked most La Niña years during our colder climate from the 1950s to 1980s. My guess is the reason it has worked for over 50 years is that La Ninas still tend to be frontloaded by nature. So if the winter isn’t really big right out of the gates, then it’s tough to make it up on the back half which tends to be warmer and less snowy than the front half. The 83-84 and 84-85 winter were probably similar due to how cold that era was in the U.S. same for 71-72 and 73-74. But outside those years the relationship was pretty reliable.

88-89…Dec…0.3….season…8.1

85-86…Dec….0.9…season…13.0

84-85…Dec….5.5…season…24.1

83-84…Dec….1.6….season…25.4

75-76…Dec…..2.3…season…17.3

74-75…Dec…..0.1….season…13.0

73-74…Dec…..2.8…season….23.5

71-72…Dec……T……season….22.9

70-71…Dec……2.4…season….15.5

66-67…Dec…..9.1…..season….51.5

64-65….Dec….3.1…..season….24.4

55-56….Dec….3.3…..season….33.5

54-55….Dec….0.1……season….11.5

49-50….Dec…1.3…….season…14.0

 

[dmillz25]

Down to 15 here

[Joe Slezak]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

flurries last night and there might be some dustings but here...cant see a dusting in this spot of Wantage NJ.

FWN got to 2.0mi so it was legit in spots. Port Jerv 511 covered 84 well. Figured I'd ping for obs. All the best.

[IrishRob17]

3” at the snow stake, low of 9, sitting at 10 at the moment. Like Walt said, have some fun people. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If I can suggest... for lr try using 850 temps for above or below normal temps instead of the 2M for these long range outlooks. 2M doesn't always transfer well from aloft.  

Yeah, the surface 2mTs have been running warmer than the 850mb Ts due to the very low snow cover extent in NA, warmer Great Lakes, and Hudson Bay still not frozen over yet.

 

[North and West]

Yet in that same page of discussions certain people at the northern fringes of our metro area were told they dont matter as much, nor did the ski areas not in our sub. Cant have it both ways. 

do they have electricity in the northern regions? we just got it out west last year. the missus is thrilled.




.

[WIN]

12 minutes ago, North and West said:

do they have electricity in the northern regions? we just got it out west last year. the missus is thrilled.


 

Here in NWNJ, we finally have plumbing..no more outhouse needed! :)

[wdrag]

Miracle on Broadway?  I saw a post earlier and cant find it... am considering the long shot 1.2" needed to reach 3" for Dec.

 

What was it called?  Miracle for Dec 2024?  

 

I'll make a decision on a thread at 7PM tonight. Seems like at least some media forecasters are blowing off what may happen Tuesday morning near sunrise. I can see it as squall line of briefly 1/2S and piling up an inch in 2 hours. I just need a little more model guidance and the title and then decide whether its worth it... I'm pretty sure NYC subforum members will be excited by what we see near sunrise Tuesday. 

[Allsnow]

 

[FPizz]

Station got to 9.8 last night 

[Brian5671]

Down to 11 here

[Allsnow]

Down to 14 last night 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

The discussion was about the our continent as a whole torching between Christmas and New Years

 

 

 

The reason I posted the original map last week was to highlight this very point. It’s a very big news story for North America at any time of the year when even a 1 week pattern is this anomalous. At no point did I mention the term torch for our area. Plus I didn’t even use that term to describe a month like December 2015 that went +13.3° or when we hit 80° in February 2018. I tend to stay away from emotionally charged terms even if they are warranted in cases like those months. 

In our immediate area I can think of several reasons why it’s pertinent to our discussion. Whether we top out in the 40s or 50s close to New Years isn’t really that important in the larger scene of things. But how much of a lingering effect the pattern has going forward could be critical at least last near and just after the New Years. It could have an influence early on for P-Types near the immediate coast. The pattern will not cool down instantly.

The other issue that I highlighted yesterday was how much this will influence the blocking Northeast of Hudson Bay. This is a feature which could potentially work to our advantage  for storm tracks once colder air makes it back into the pattern. So it could be a potential plus for us. But the Pacific pattern has still been a net minus for our snowfall. Hopefully, we can get some Atlantic side push back to help out some snowfall points on the board in January.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Week Ahead:

A generally cold but quiet week lies ahead. Temperatures will moderate after midweek.

[SACRUS]

 

17 / 3 off a low of 12.  Sub freezing through Tuesday.  Christmas eve snow showers / flurries, could be another coating and maybe a bit more north sections.  Back a bit colder Christmas then warmer wetter close to the month and next weekend.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  71 (2013)
NYC: 71 (2013)
LGA: 69 (2013)
JFK: 64 (2013)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1989)
NYC: 4 (1872)
LGA: 8 (1989)
JFK: 9 (1989)

Historical:
 

1839 - The second of triple December storms hit the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 25 inches of snow at Gettysburg, PA, and gales in New England, but only produced light snow along the coast. (David Ludlum)

1961 - Holiday travel was paralyzed over extreme northeastern Kansas, and adjacent parts of Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska. The storm produced 5 to 15 inches of snow, with drifts up to ten feet high. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel)

1983 - On the first day of winter 75 cities reported record low temperatures for the date, with twelve of those cities reporting record low temperatures for the month as a whole. The mercury plunged to 51 degrees below zero at Wisdom MT, and Waco TX set an all-time record low a reading of 12 above zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - The first day of winter was a relatively tranquil one for much of the nation, but heralded a winter storm in the Central Rockies. The storm produced 40 inches of snow at the top of the Pomerelle Ski Resort, south of Burley ID, the heaviest snow of record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds prevailed in the foothills of Wyoming and Colorado. Winds gusted to 123 mph southwest of Fort Collins CO, and reached 141 mph at the summit of Mount Evans. An ice storm paralyzed parts of Upper Michigan during the day. The freezing rain left roads around Marquette MI blocked by cars and semi- trucks. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of 137 cities across the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Thirty-five of those cities established record lows for the month of December. Morning lows of 23 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO, 26 degrees below zero at Concordia KS, and 27 degrees below zero at Goodland KS established all-time records for those three locations. Unofficial morning lows included 50 degrees below zero at Recluse WY and 60 degrees below zero at Rochford SD. Broadus MT and Hardin MT tied for honors as the official cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 47 degrees below zero. Chinook winds at Cutbank MT helped warm the temperature 74 degrees, from a morning low of 34 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 40 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: The most significant cold spell of the century for the Deep South occurred from the 22 to the 26. New Orleans experienced 64 consecutive hours at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit and a total of 81 out of 82 hours below freezing. A total of 15 hours was below 15 degrees with the lowest reading of 11 degrees on the morning of the 23rd. A low temperature of 8 degrees was recorded at Baton Rouge. Snow and sleet paralyzed transportation systems where as much as two to four inches of snow accumulated in Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes. Snow and ice-covered the ground in New Orleans. The most significant impact was the breaking of water pipes in homes and businesses. Over 100 fires resulted in the New Orleans area within 24 hours due to a loss of water pressure and improperly utilized heating sources. Ice formed over shallow lakes and waterways where commercial fishing took heavy losses. Five weather-related deaths occurred in the service area during this rare Arctic outbreak.  Between December 22 and December 24, 1989, deepening low pressure pulled a frigid arctic air mass into the southeastern United States. This sequence of events produced a historic snowstorm and a rare white Christmas across the region. At Charleston, South Carolina, the storm deposited 8 inches of snow – the greatest snowfall in modern history. At Savannah, Georgia, the storm total accumulation of 3.6 inches tied the greatest snowfall in modern history.

 

2004: Tremendous snows occurred in the Ohio Valley. The following cities set new records for their most significant snowstorm ever: Evansville, Indiana 22.3 inches, Dayton, Ohio 16.4 inches, and Paducah, Kentucky 14.2 inches. Other big snowfall totals were 31 inches at Liberty, Indiana, 28 inches at Buena Vista, Indiana, 24 inches at Greenville, Ohio, and 23 inches at Mansfield, Ohio. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Cold spell

Dec 21:

NYC: 33 / 19 (-12)
EWR:  33 / 20 (-10)

[SACRUS]

Lows: 12/22 (so far)

NYC: 16
EWR: 17
LGA: 18
JFK: 18

[SACRUS]

 

Dec Dep (so far) through 12/21st

 

JFK: +0.4
EWR: -0.6
LGA: -1.7
NYC: -1.7
TTN: -2.3

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For today's measurable snowfall: JFK: 0.12"; LGA: 0.12"; NYC: 0.15"

wow so 20:1 or higher, NYC's totals are definitely an outlier there....

[MJO812]

18 right now

[SACRUS]

37 to Jacksonville

[BxEngine]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The reason I posted the original map last week was to highlight this very point. It’s a very big news story for North America at any time of the year when even a 1 week pattern is this anomalous. At no point did I mention the term torch for our area. Plus I didn’t even use that term to describe a month like December 2015 that went +13.3° or when we hit 80° in February 2018. I tend to stay away from emotionally charged terms even if they are warranted in cases like those months. 

In our immediate area I can think of several reasons why it’s pertinent to our discussion. Whether we top out in the 40s or 50s close to New Years isn’t really that important in the larger scene of things. But how much of a lingering effect the pattern has going forward could be critical at least last near and just after the New Years. It could have an influence early on for P-Types near the immediate coast. The pattern will not cool down instantly.

The other issue that I highlighted yesterday was how much this will influence the blocking Northeast of Hudson Bay. This is a feature which could potentially work to our advantage  for storm tracks once colder air makes it back into the pattern. So it could be a potential plus for us. But the Pacific pattern has still been a net minus for our snowfall. Hopefully, we can get some Atlantic side push back to help out some snowfall points on the board in January.
 

 

No one disagrees about the historic warmth (well except the deniers who cant handle their snow being taken away). But the ski area discussion hold pertinent to our subforum for the same reasons you just stated. Not to mention that its noteworthy considering their last few seasons and the struggles they have had. Tie that into many people not understanding where our subforum actually encompasses and having been implied or flat out told my obs dont matter, it becomes a bigger narrative and issue. 

[wishcast_hater]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

No one disagrees about the historic warmth (well except the deniers who cant handle their snow being taken away). But the ski area discussion hold pertinent to our subforum for the same reasons you just stated. Not to mention that its noteworthy considering their last few seasons and the struggles they have had. Tie that into many people not understanding where our subforum actually encompasses and having been implied or flat out told my obs dont matter, it becomes a bigger narrative and issue. 

January is looking to be below normal for much of the month putting an end to the pacific jets influence on our area, at least for a little while. 

[Rjay]

24 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

No one disagrees about the historic warmth (well except the deniers who cant handle their snow being taken away). But the ski area discussion hold pertinent to our subforum for the same reasons you just stated. Not to mention that its noteworthy considering their last few seasons and the struggles they have had. Tie that into many people not understanding where our subforum actually encompasses and having been implied or flat out told my obs dont matter, it becomes a bigger narrative and issue. 

I always thought the subform ran between 78 and 80 but also east of 95.  Anything north of 80 is basically Canada. And anything west of 95 is basically Iowa. 

[Snowlover11]

12 for a low

[donsutherland1]

With prospects for a significant snowfall (6"/15.2 cm or above) in Philadelphia and New York City low for the remainder of December, a look ahead at favorable patterns for January is in order.  Since 1950, 16 January storms brought 6"/15.2 cm or more snow to both Philadelphia and NYC. Let’s see if January can deliver.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

No one disagrees about the historic warmth (well except the deniers who cant handle their snow being taken away). But the ski area discussion hold pertinent to our subforum for the same reasons you just stated. Not to mention that its noteworthy considering their last few seasons and the struggles they have had. Tie that into many people not understanding where our subforum actually encompasses and having been implied or flat out told my obs dont matter, it becomes a bigger narrative and issue. 

Many different microclimates in the subforum.  But if we stay as a whole slightly above normal here for a few days then transistion to eventually bellow normal and the rest of usa is +30, many don't care one bit.  Go post it a general thread. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Overrunning/CAD event possible Thurs-Fri Dec 26-27th reference Euro and GFS.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024122206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png