December 2024

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The MJO plots now show both the Euro/GFS trying to go stronger through 8 and 1 as well.  

Another positive is unlike the last two blocking episodes this time we're not fighting a massive deep RNA to Baja causing the southeast ridge to link with the nao.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

10 days to get a miracle 1.2"

It's kinda funny how the difference between a 40"+ winter and a 10" winter is another inch of snow in December. 

[bluewave]

This winter will be a big win in my book if NYC can end the under 4” daily snowfall streak and not surpass 1932.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1394	1932-12-16
2	1063	1952-01-27
3	1056	2024-12-20
4	1051	1963-12-22

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's kinda funny how the difference between a 40"+ winter and a 10" winter is another inch of snow in December. 

You really believe that ?

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

 

Coldest air into the Great Lakes heading south and east

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You really believe that ?

I mean the stats don't lie even though at some point we'll probably break it

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's kinda funny how the difference between a 40"+ winter and a 10" winter is another inch of snow in December. 

I don’t t think that’s how it actually works. December La Niña snowfall probably acts as more of a marker of what the pattern is able to produce. It’s not a December snowfall causing later seasonal snowfall relationship.That being said, we have still had some nice snowstorms following Decembers in NYC with under 3” back to 1991. Like in 99-00, 07-08, and 21-22.

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

[forkyfork]

can also hope the nina fades

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t t think that’s how it actually works. December La Niña snowfall probably acts as more of a marker of what the pattern is able to produce. It’s not a December snowfall causing later seasonal snowfall relationship.That being said, we have still had some nice snowstorms following Decembers in NYC with under 3” back to 1991. Like in 99-00, 07-08, and 21-22.

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

Right, it's almost like trying to draw a parallel between November snowfalls and below average seasonal snowfall.  The real reason is it takes time for the pattern to reload.

 

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You really believe that ?

There's stats to back it up but our patterns have gotten a lot more convulated lately. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, it's almost like trying to draw a parallel between November snowfalls and below average seasonal snowfall.  The real reason is it takes time for the pattern to reload.

 

Many of the statistical relationships we find are just markers for underlying weather patterns that exist.

[wdrag]

Still unsure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th.  

 

Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina? 

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Still. to sure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th.  

 

Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina? 

 

While the actual SSTs have been on the weaker side until the recent drop, the atmospheric La Niña response through the EQSOI and OLR has been similar to much stronger La Ninas.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2024-enso-update-party-time-excellent

 

 

[nycwinter]

worst thing walking on days like this is not the slush on sidewalk but all the salt that you shoes pick up...

[NEG NAO]

The end of the month warmup will be short lived as by January 2nd the cold returns

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The end of the month warmup will be short lived as by January 2nd the cold returns

 

With a storm around NYD on gfs

[MJO812]

Looking good

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The end of the month warmup will be short lived as by January 2nd the cold returns

 

The blocking with the record warmth around Hudson Bay has exceeded earlier model forecasts. Models are forecasting record 500 mb heights there later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow here last week of December with the warmer mins driving the late month departures.That ridge is the feature to watch into January as it could help NYC break its under 4” snowfall losing streak.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW

[NEG NAO]

Looks like Early January has the chance too out due Early December

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW

Plenty of Blocking potential up north too.......

[cleetussnow]

Fingers crossed. Different look from 2024 so lets get it done

[WestBabylonWeather]

Different start to winter than the last few years. An actual December that feels like winter.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Different start to winter than the last few years. An actual December that feels like winter.

You can get these in a la nina especially a la nina after an el nino.  You just don't want a big thaw in January and then the winter to suddenly end.

 

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Different start to winter than the last few years. An actual December that feels like winter.

Yes.  This snowfall will stick around for several days out here as opposed to the prior ones.  For the season I'm at 14.3".  No complaints.

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Different start to winter than the last few years. An actual December that feels like winter.

Best start to Winter in 3 years

[bluewave]

NYC should see its first below 20° readings of season next few days that which is earlier than the 12-29 average first date of the last decade.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending first below 20° temperature

Minimum	01-20 (2024)		11-22 (2018)		286
Mean	02-18		12-29		310
2024	01-20 (2024)	18	-	-	-
2023	02-04 (2023)	3	01-17 (2024)	17	346
2022	02-15 (2022)	16	12-23 (2022)	8	310
2021	02-08 (2021)	17	01-04 (2022)	19	329
2020	02-15 (2020)	14	01-29 (2021)	14	348
2019	03-07 (2019)	18	12-19 (2019)	16	286
2018	02-03 (2018)	16	11-22 (2018)	17	291
2017	03-12 (2017)	19	12-27 (2017)	17	289
2016	02-15 (2016)	13	12-15 (2016)	19	303
2015	03-07 (2015)	18	01-04 (2016)	14	302
2014	03-13 (2014)	18	01-06 (2015)	19	298

 

[psv88]

Never made it above 30 today, dropping back into 20s now, so this snow will be around until at least Tuesday 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC should see its first below 20° readings of season next few days that which is earlier than the 12-29 average first date of the last decade.

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending first below 20° temperature

Minimum	01-20 (2024)		11-22 (2018)		286
Mean	02-18		12-29		310
2024	01-20 (2024)	18	-	-	-
2023	02-04 (2023)	3	01-17 (2024)	17	346
2022	02-15 (2022)	16	12-23 (2022)	8	310
2021	02-08 (2021)	17	01-04 (2022)	19	329
2020	02-15 (2020)	14	01-29 (2021)	14	348
2019	03-07 (2019)	18	12-19 (2019)	16	286
2018	02-03 (2018)	16	11-22 (2018)	17	291
2017	03-12 (2017)	19	12-27 (2017)	17	289
2016	02-15 (2016)	13	12-15 (2016)	19	303
2015	03-07 (2015)	18	01-04 (2016)	14	302
2014	03-13 (2014)	18	01-06 (2015)	19	298

 

that one on 11/22 in 2018 really stands out, was that one of the earliest ones on record, Chris?