MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Oh yeah I see that now Tuesday morning Bamwx says January's going to rock And PB and CooL and few others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I guess they’re ignoring the trough out west They are going with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Just now, MJO812 said: And PB and few others Shocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Friday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:10 PM We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. 500 mb heights over the NEPAC and WNA have been verifying lower than the long range forecasts have been indicating. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 PM 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. New run Old run that trough is transient, though. it's normal for there to be a transient trough in the west when the EPO drops... the pattern is in the process of transitioning there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 PM 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will be dealing with the same issue to start January that we had December. Models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet beyond 10 days. So now they are beginning to see a trough the West instead of the ridge several days ago. 500 mb heights over the NEPAC and WNA have been verifying lower than the long range forecasts have been indicating. New run Old run More of the same GL cutters with dry/cold in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:19 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: More of the same GL cutters with dry/cold in between that screenshot of the pattern is misleading. a static image won't paint an accurate picture of what's actually occurring 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:23 PM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: that screenshot of the pattern is misleading. a static image won't paint an accurate picture of what's actually occurring The mjo convection is in conflict as it’s in diff phases. You can see in the ext products that any trough in the east will be transient. Our only way out was this Decembers with the PNA but the pac never slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:26 PM Just now, Allsnow said: The mjo convection is in conflict as it’s in diff phases. You can see in the ext products that any trough in the east will be transient. Our only way out was this Decembers with the PNA but the pac never slowed down. the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:28 PM 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year Where do u see a trough in the east for 2-3 weeks? with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:30 PM 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where do u see a trough in the west for 2-3 weeks? with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc ok, so the progression on every single ensemble is going to be wrong? is that what you're saying? also, there's a trough in the east for two weeks on the extended GEFS and three weeks on the Weeklies. that is what the extended products are showing. it's not transient 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Friday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:31 PM 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that trough is transient, though. it's normal for there to be a transient trough in the west when the EPO drops... the pattern is in the process of transitioning there The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker with the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS longer range is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient Southeast Ridges will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:33 PM 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the MJO is quite weak... seems like other intraseasonal factors are going to have more of an impact. also, I wouldn't consider a mean trough in the east for 2-3 weeks transient. extended guidance could easily be overdoing the impact of ENSO. it did the same thing last year MJO was strong for phase 5 n 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Where do u see a trough in the east for 2-3 weeks? with all due respect, you post these day 11-15 day ensemble means every winter that fail to tell the entire story. I want snow just as bad as anyone but this winter won’t be it for nyc Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: ok, so the progression on every single ensemble is going to be wrong? is that what you're saying? also, there's a trough in the east for two weeks on the extended GEFS and three weeks on the Weeklies. that is what the extended products are showing. it's not transient You’re completely missing the point about how we continue to chase that carrot. @bluewaveis just pointing out how the pac continues to be to fast which taints those ideal looks on the 11-15 day means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:35 PM 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker due to the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient SE ridges will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA. so you think that trough isn't transient on average? just to be clear? and you do not believe the ensembles just a couple of days after that screenshot with a mean trough in the E US? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 PM 3 minutes ago, WX-PA said: MJO was strong for phase 5 n Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go! @bluewave never called for a blowtorch December 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 PM Just now, Allsnow said: You’re completely missing the point about how we continue to chase that carrot. @bluewaveis just pointing out how the pac continues to be to fast which taints those ideal looks on the 11-15 day means but the Pacific jet is going to retract. the pattern isn't going to remain static forever. the jet extension we just saw was well forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted Friday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 PM 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The trough is there due to the 500mb heights trending weaker with the stronger Pacific Jet influence than forecast. We’ll probably start the month with the trough over the West and warmer than average temps around the area. Then a storm will run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast with colder air rushing behind. The screenshot is the long range model bias showing up. So the spread out trough from west to east across CONUS is smoothing out the storm tracks. When the lows eject from the SW transient SE ridges will emerge in the fast flow allowing the storm tracks to run to the Great Lakes or hug the coast. We have seen this pattern time and time again over the years with low in the West under a Canadian +PNA. Doesn't mean it's going to happen with every storm from now till March..Sometimes patterns change..Yes we've been in a snow drought but it always goes back the other way..that's why they have averages. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM also, just logically speaking, in order for us to go from the overextended jet like we have now to the supposed retracted jet SE ridge pattern in late Jan that some are advertising, there HAS to be a period where the jet is in a favorable position for WC and AK ridging and a mean trough in the east. the jet can't just magically hop from one place to the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave never called for a blowtorch December He called for a warm December and Christmas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 PM also, if the Pacific jet is also going to be stronger than forecast for much of the winter, wouldn't that mean that the retraction on the extended guidance for late Jan into Feb is overdone, shifting the prospective Aleutian ridge more into AK and the WC, leading to a colder E US pattern? but nobody is using that logic in that fashion for whatever reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He called for a warm December and Christmas. No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 PM Just now, Allsnow said: No I remember it clearly. Stop lying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:45 PM But anyway many forecasters got December wrong . January at least the first half looks really cold and active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Friday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:46 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: But anyway many forecasters got December wrong . January at least the first half looks really cold and active. January is going to start out warm with the trough in thh west. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Friday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 PM 20 minutes ago, WX-PA said: MJO was strong for phase 5 n Well you don't know that..a majority of this board in late November called for a blowtorch December including Bluewave and the rest..Trough for January is in phase 7 and 8..again it might not happen, but it;s snowing now and it might snow Christmas eve..and we got 3 months to go! I called for a -1 to +1 pattern for this month back in early December which is right on track when you average out the 7 local stations currently at -0.5. A back and forth pattern with warm ups and cool downs. The model forecasts issued on December 1st missed the warmth from mid to late month which I was pointing out three weeks ago with my posts about the Pacific Jet verifying faster than forecast. I also highlighted the mismatch potential back in October with the +PNA we have seen. But that there were competing influences that were different from past La Niña mismatch Decembers. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Friday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:00 PM The lack of anything decent pattern wise the last 3 yrs is really getting to people.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 PM by the way, the Pacific jet actually trended weaker for early Jan, not stronger. it was significantly stronger a few days ago 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 PM 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: January is going to start out warm with the trough in thh west. I guess you are ignoring every ensemble and mjo progression. Good luck. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 PM Just now, brooklynwx99 said: by the way, the Pacific jet actually trended weaker for early Jan, not stronger. it was significantly stronger a few days ago 12z Euro and gefs changes the pattern by NYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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