December 2024

[psv88]

The NAM snowstorm isn’t going to happen? Color me shocked. 

[SACRUS]

 

47 for the high today.  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 60 (1931)
NYC: 58 (1931)
LGA: 57 (1957)
JFK: 56 (1957)


Lows:

EWR: 9 (1942)
NYC: -1 (1884)
LGA: 14 (1980)
JFK: 15 (1991)


Historical:

 

1777 - The Continental Army moved into encampment at Valley Forge amidst stormy winds and piercing cold. A relatively moderate winter followed. (David Ludlum)

 

1777: George Washington led his hungry and weary from long marches men to Valley Forge on this day. The winds greeted the 12,000 Continentals as they prepared for the winter. 

1924 - The Riverside Ranger Station in Yellowstone Park, WY, reported a low of 59 degrees below zero, a December record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A tornado, 200 yards in width, killed two persons along its 15-mile path from near Waldo to near Bueana Vista in southwestern Arkansas. People from one house were carried 250 yards, and cars were said to have been carried 600 yards. (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A record 83 inches of snow covered the ground at Flagstaff, AZ. The heavy snows inflicted great hardships on reservations. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Venus TX and Providence LA. Rain prevailed from the Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley. Small stream flooding was reported around Columbia MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure and a trailing cold front in the central U.S. brought snow and high winds to parts of the Rocky Mountain Region. Winds in Colorado gusted to 67 mph at La Junta. Thunderstorms along the same cold front produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Kansas City MO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - High winds and heavy snow plagued the northern and central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 12 inches at Lincoln, and wind gusts in Colorado reached 97 mph at Squaw Mountain. Twelve cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Dickinson ND with a reading of 26 degrees below zero. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2008 - A snow and ice storm on December 19 affected parts of the U.S. Midwest. Over 220,000 homes and businesses across Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were left without electric services. No fatalities were reported (Reuters).

 

2009: Snowfall totals from 1 to 2 feet were commonplace in what will go down as one of the biggest snowstorms in history on the East Coast and the first of four snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic during the winter of 2009-10. The 15 inches of snow measured at Reagan International Airport on Dec. 19th was the third-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day at Washington, DC, since snowfall records began in 1884. The total storm snowfall of 16.4 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Washington, DC putting it just below the second President's Day storm in 2003 and ahead of the Jan 1996 storm. Baltimore Washington Airport saw 20.5 inches of snow and went down as the fifth-highest daily snowfall on any calendar day in Baltimore since snowfall records began in 1893. The total storm snowfall of 21.0 inches on Dec 18-19 2009 marks the 6th highest two-day snowfall record for Baltimore. The daily snowfall records for Dec 19 were smashed for the most snowfall for any calendar day during December at the following stations. Reagan National Airport's new record was 15.0 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. Baltimore Washington Airport's new record was 20.5 inches, old record 11.5 in 1932. This was the biggest December snowstorm on record and setting a record for the snowiest December for Baltimore, MD. Dulles Airport's new record was 16.0 inches, old record 10.6 in 1982. Richmond International Airport had a total of 6.4 inches. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, reported its second greatest daily snowfall total on record with 22.9 inches. It also was the single most significant December snowfall for the city of Philadelphia, PA. Roanoke, Virginia, recorded 17.8 inches setting a record for the greatest 24-hour snowfall in December. Washington, DC, reported 16.4 inches of snowmaking 2009 the snowiest December on record, all in one storm. In New York, Upton on Long Island recorded 26.3 inches, the biggest snowstorm on record.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

2009

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed, the very dry Sept and Oct appear to have just been a blip in the wet pattern. Nov was a little over 1" above average IMBY and Dec to date is .63" above average.

Nice improvements away from Southern NJ with Providence recording their wettest winter day. 
 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

NYC Snowfall

1995: 7.7 inches
 

[donsutherland1]

A cooling trend is underway. That trend will culminate with a sharp shot of cold will during the weekend. The temperature will likely fall into the teens for the first time this season in New York City and Philadelphia. Many areas outside those cities will likely experience single-digit lows.

A system will bring some periods of light snow to the region late Friday into early Saturday morning. A coating to an inch of snow is likely in the Philadelphia to New York City region. Boston will likely pick up 1"-3" of snow. There could be an area of enhanced snowfall in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic or southern New England areas should an inverted trough develop.

The cold will begin to recede around the middle of next week.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures. Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December.

On account of a lack of snowfall, 2023-2024 will likely set a new records for the lowest snowfall over a two-year period for Boston and New York City.

Boston: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 21.5"; Record: 38.2", 1979-1980
New York City: 2023-2024 Total to Date: 9.8"; Record: 17.4:, 1997-1998

In past days, an occasional run of the operational GFS showed a significant snowstorm from Washington, DC to New York City. However, the pattern makes such an event very unlikely for this region. Since 1950, there were 5 December snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of these cities. Four (80%) occurred with a PNA+/NAO- pattern. The NAO is forecast to be positive. In addition, three (60%) occurred when the MJO was in Phase 8, which is not likely over the next 10 days. Only the December 23-25, 1966 event produced 6" or more snow in all three cities with a positive NAO, but the AO was strongly negative (< -2.000), which is not likely during the next 10 days. In sum, the interior sections will be far more favored for an appreciable or perhaps greater snowfall than the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia-New York City area over the next 10 days. A smaller snowfall remains plausible. One example will be the upcoming Friday-Saturday snowfall in parts of the region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around December 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +29.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.686 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° below normal).

 

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

2009

Incredible storm for Suffolk county. That mega death band rotated in from the East and just dumped all night. 

[Eduardo]

58 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Incredible storm for Suffolk county. That mega death band rotated in from the East and just dumped all night. 

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this.  I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so.  I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot.

No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again.  Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

[psv88]

23 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this.  I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so.  I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot.

No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again.  Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

Agreed! Those were good times!

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this.  I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so.  I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot.

No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again.  Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

It will definitely happen again many more times. 

[North and West]

Yeah I was out there for it and can confirm this.  I also loved how the models didn’t really pick up on it until we were inside 48 hours or so.  I remember having my attention trained on a PNA spike that was necessary to steer it toward the sweet spot.
No idea how long it’ll be until we have storms like that again.  Hopefully it’s within my lifetime.

Geez, it’ll happen again. We got spoiled very much in the 2000s and 2010s. This decade is reverting to the mean and feels a lot more like the early and late 1990s sprinkled in with a dash of world-ending despair.


.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

It will definitely happen again many more times. 

 

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Geez, it’ll happen again. We got spoiled very much in the 2000s and 2010s. This decade is reverting to the mean and feels a lot more like the early and late 1990s sprinkled in with a dash of world-ending despair.


.

Oh by that, I meant the “surprise” blockbusters that pop up within 48 hours!

[Rjay]

I would love for some light snow Christmas eve or day

[bluewave]

Back and forth pattern continues with the coldest temps of the season coming in just before Christmas for more of a seasonal feel. Then we average close to normal around Christmas. Back to above normal to close out the year as we approach New Year’s Eve. So my guess is that the 7 station local average finishes December somewhere in the 0 to -1 range. The current 7 station average for December is -0.5.

EWR….-0.1

NYC….-1.0

JFK…..+0.9

LGA…..-1.1

HPN….-0.4

BDR…..-1.3

ISP……-0.8

AVG…..-0.5

[EastonSN+]

11 hours ago, North and West said:

Geez, it’ll happen again. We got spoiled very much in the 2000s and 2010s. This decade is reverting to the mean and feels a lot more like the early and late 1990s sprinkled in with a dash of world-ending despair.


.

NYC had only 4 above average snowfall winters from 1970 through 1999. 30 years. So far in this low snowfall period we have had one above average snowfall winter in 6 years so if this year is below average snowfall we are on a similar Pace not worse.

[EastonSN+]

Hoping 

[SACRUS]

 

36 / 36 clouds some light rain.  Colder through 23rd.  We'll see if NYC and EWR tack on 1 or 2 more -10 (or colder) departures in the timeframe.   Warmup Christmas through the end of the month and we'll see if NYC and EWR can tack on 1 or 2 more +12 (or warmer) departures in that timeframe.  Looks dry once past today's mix / light snow coating the next

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/NE/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NYC had only 4 above average snowfall winters from 1970 through 1999. 30 years. So far in this low snowfall period we have had one above average snowfall winter in 6 years so if this year is below average snowfall we are on a similar Pace not worse.

That’s the shift which I have been talking about. From 1961 to 1993 NYC had 13 close to average snowfall seasons in the 20s. From 1994 to 2024 NYC only had 3 average seasons in the 20s. So our snowfall pattern since 1994 has been all our nothing with very few average seasons anymore. Nearly all our winters since then were either above or below average. The many above average seasons were masking the winter warming trend. So now it’s harder to get average and above average seasons during the 2020s so far. We are moving toward a below average regime instead of the average pattern which dominated from 1961 to 1994. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 61 (2002)
NYC: 60 (2002)
LGA: 61 (1957)
JFK: 57 (1999)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1942) *earliest sub zero reading at Newark on record
NYC: -4 (1942) 
LGA: -2 (1942)
JFK: 12 (2004)

Historical:

 

1836 - A famous cold wave occurred in central Illinois. A cold front with 70 mph winds swept through at Noon dropping the temperature from 40 degrees to near zero in a matter of minutes. Many settlers froze to death. Folklore told of chickens frozen in their tracks and men frozen to saddles. Ice in streams reportedly froze to six inches in a few hours. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1929: An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas on December 20 - 21st, 1929. The storm produced 26 inches of snow near Hillsboro, Texas, and 24 inches in 24 hours in Clifton.

1942 - An early cold wave sent the temperature plunging to 3 degrees below zero at Nantucket, MA, and to 11 degrees below zero at Boston MA. (The Weather Channel)

 

1977: A "Once in a Lifetime" wind and dust storm struck the south end of the San Joaquin Valley in California. Winds reached 88 mph at Arvin before the anemometer broke, and gusts were estimated at 192 mph at Arvin by a U.S. Geological Survey. Meadows Field in Bakersfield recorded sustained 46 mph winds with a gust of 63 mph. The strong winds generated a wall of dust resembling a tidal wave that was 5,000 feet high over Arvin. Blowing sand stripped painted surfaces to bare metal and trapped people in vehicles for several hours. 70% of homes received structural damage in Arvin, Edison, and East Bakersfield. 120,000 Kern County customers lost power. Agriculture was impacted as 25 million tons of soil was loosened from grazing lands. Five people died, and damages totaled $34 million.  These strong winds also spread a large fire through the Honda Canyon on Vandenberg Air Force Base in southern California. This fire, which started from a power pole on Tranquillon Ridge being blown over, claimed the lives of Base Commander Colonel Joseph Turner, Fire Chief Billy Bell, and Assistant Fire Chief Eugene Cooper. Additionally, severe burns were experienced by Heavy Equipment Operator Clarence McCauley.  He later died due to complications from the burns.

 

1984: Lili, a rare December hurricane, was officially declared a tropical system in the central Atlantic as a distinct eye type feature was apparent on satellite imagery. The hurricane peaked at sustained 80 mph winds and a pressure of 980 millibars or 28.94 inches of mercury, a very respectable Category 1 Hurricane in December.

1987 - Heavy snow fell in the northern mountains of Colorado, with 15 inches reported in the Mary Jane ski area. Strong and gusty winds prevailed from the Northern High Plains to the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 54 mph at Buffalo NY, and reached 66 mph at Livingston MT. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow fell across New England, with up to seven inches of snow in Maine. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong southerly winds ahead of a cold front in the central U.S. gusted to 70 mph at Indianapolis IN. The high winds toppled a masonary wall killing a construction worker. Low pressure and a trailing cold front brought rain and snow and high winds to the western U.S. Winds gusted to 90 mph at the Callahan Ranch south of Reno NV. Soda Springs, in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, received 17 inches of snow in less than 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Brutal northwest winds ushered bitter cold arctic air into the north central U.S. International Falls, MN, and Warroad, MN, tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 34 degrees below zero. Minot ND reported a wind chill reading of 81 degrees below zero. Squalls produced more heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Erie PA received 21 inches of snow, including four inches in one hour, to bring their total snow cover to 39 inches, an all-time record for that location. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - A major winter storm affected Colorado, dumping several feet of snow on areas of the Rocky Mountains. The snowstorm temporarily closed the Denver International Airport.

[SACRUS]

 

Heaviest rain into the WC/PNW the next week

 

[SACRUS]

 

Warmer after christmas and close to the month

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s the shift which I have been talking about. From 1961 to 1993 NYC had 13 close to average snowfall seasons in the 20s. From 1994 to 2024 NYC only had 3 average seasons in the 20s. So our snowfall pattern since 1994 has been all our nothing with very few average seasons anymore. Nearly all our winters since then were either above or below average. The many above average seasons were masking the winter warming trend. So now it’s harder to get average and above average seasons during the 2020s so far. We are moving toward a below average regime instead of the average pattern which dominated from 1961 to 1994. 

I do agree that the volatility is definitely higher and we are deviating from the average more and more. That being said given our latitude I believe that the warmer ocean temperatures and therefore stronger storms could create much higher snowfall totals in years where there is more coastal storms. This is why I am not convinced that our average snowfall is going to decline. Looking at last year's storm in a scope I believe that the higher volatility in the atmosphere created the higher snowfall totals I would not be shocked if we had our highest snowfall season in history in the next few years, although that will be mixed in with a lot of below average snowfall seasons. The end result could be the same 30-year average snowfall that we've had in the past. I do not believe we can look at Washington DC Baltimore Philly and say we are now in their past climate given the fact that our location is higher in latitude and further away from the Gulf of Mexico (generally different).

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do agree that the volatility is definitely higher and we are deviating from the average more and more. That being said given our latitude I believe that the warmer ocean temperatures and therefore stronger storms could create much higher snowfall totals in years where there is more coastal storms. This is why I am not convinced that our average snowfall is going to decline. Looking at last year's storm in a scope I believe that the higher volatility in the atmosphere created the higher snowfall totals I would not be shocked if we had our highest snowfall season in history in the next few years, although that will be mixed in with a lot of below average snowfall seasons. The end result could be the same 30-year average snowfall that we've had in the past. I do not believe we can look at Washington DC Baltimore Philly and say we are now in their past climate given the fact that our location is higher in latitude and further away from the Gulf of Mexico (generally different).

My guess is that the 2020s will turn out to be the beginning of the shift to below average snowfall. This doesn’t mean that we can’t get above average seasons from time to time. The NYC average snowfall during the 2020s so far is similar to Washington DC from 1961 to 1993. The Boston average snowfall during the 2020s is similar to NYC from 1961 to 1993. So we have seen a shift of sorts this decade with the climate zones shifting north. 

[MJO812]

Christmas wave well north on gfs and cmc.

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Christmas wave well north on gfs and cmc.

A problem is the cold air is moving out then, so it could be rain if we get precip. Still 5 days away though, so there is some hope. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A problem is the cold air is moving out then, so it could be rain if we get precip. Still 5 days away though, so there is some hope. 

I'm assuming we're taking about Thursday? Gfs has snow around DC 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm assuming we're taking about Thursday? Gfs has snow around DC 

Perhaps some light snow Christmas Eve? Probably last chance at anything for a while 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps some light snow Christmas Eve? Probably last chance at anything for a while 

Oh yeah I see that now Tuesday morning 

 

Bamwx says January's going to rock 

[Allsnow]

 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Oh yeah I see that now Tuesday morning 

 

Bamwx says January's going to rock 

I guess they’re ignoring the trough out west