December 2024

[Pellice]

Regarding that February storm last year, had a report on one of the bird alerts that the very northern tip of Sandy Hook, NJ, had a foot of snow while the south end (5 miles south) had much less.  

[North and West]

you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged

.

[bluewave]

For the UKMET fans out there Pivitol now has 168 hr forecasts with maps every 6 hrs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024121800&fh=9&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global

[wdrag]

Prepping minor thread for first measurable of the season CP Fri night. Should be up by 8A. NO GUARANTEE on 0.1-1" CP.  

[wdrag]

Also on lack of threads.  I try to focus on the more important ones.  Obviously snow brightens most of our lives.  Trying to reduce MEH takes on events. So for many this coming event (or non depending where you live) may be a MEH. Tracking in one thread coming soon.  

 

I'd love to add Christmas event snowfall too but will reserve for potential separate thread after we get through daybreak Sat with whatever.

[North and West]

Also on lack of threads.  I try to focus on the more important ones.  Obviously snow brightens most of our lives.  Trying to reduce MEH takes on events. So for many this coming event (or non depending where you live) may be a MEH. Tracking in one thread coming soon.  
 
I'd love to add Christmas event snowfall too but will reserve for potential separate thread after we get through daybreak Sat with whatever.

MEH?


.

[North and West]

MEH?


.

.

[bluewave]

Cold departures pulling back again after the warm up. Should start to increase again with the colder temperatures coming up from the 21st to 23rd. Then the cold departures will recede again following Christmas as we go back up above normal again. The current station average is -1.3. It will be interesting to see if we can get a day or two warm enough near the end of the month to fall in the -1 to +1 range for the average which was my guess at the start of December.
 

EWR….-0.9

NYC….-1.9

HPN….-1.1

LGA….-1.9

JFK…..+0.2

ISP…..-1.5

BDR…..-1.8

 

AVG….-1.3

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, Pellice said:

Regarding that February storm last year, had a report on one of the bird alerts that the very northern tip of Sandy Hook, NJ, had a foot of snow while the south end (5 miles south) had much less.  

We had the same type of gradient out here with that event.  There was some type of convergence zone with this system.  The band of heavy snow with this was only about 15-25 miles wide.  It was visible on radar out in Ohio the day before.  Interesting synoptic setup with that one.

[SnoSki14]

There's an inverted trough signal for Friday. 

[Tatamy]

29 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Also on lack of threads.  I try to focus on the more important ones.  Obviously snow brightens most of our lives.  Trying to reduce MEH takes on events. So for many this coming event (or non depending where you live) may be a MEH. Tracking in one thread coming soon.  

 

I'd love to add Christmas event snowfall too but will reserve for potential separate thread after we get through daybreak Sat with whatever.

Wise move on your part.  I don’t think people on this board want to go down the same path as what is going on in the New England forum with the potential system for the end of the week.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's an inverted trough signal for Friday. 

It’s been there for a few days.

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cold departures pulling back again after the warm up. Should start to increase again with the colder temperatures coming up from the 21st to 23rd. Then the cold departures will recede again following Christmas as we go back up above normal again. The current station average is -1.3. It will be interesting to see if we can get a day or two warm enough near the end of the month to fall in the -1 to +1 range for the average which was my guess at the start of December.
 

EWR….-0.9

NYC….-1.9

HPN….-1.1

LGA….-1.9

JFK…..+0.2

ISP…..-1.5

BDR…..-1.8

 

AVG….-1.3

Im assuming JFK has to do with the south wind days and the water?

[IrishRob17]

For those interested in what may happen this weekend, Walt started a thread:

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

For the UKMET fans out there Pivitol now has 168 hr forecasts with maps every 6 hrs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024121800&fh=9&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global

The UK forecasts are out to 168 hours at 0/12Z (was 144 hours), but are only out to 66 hours for 6/18Z, which is better than no 6/18Z forecasts.  

[SACRUS]

37 / 36 , rain later (0.25 - 0.50) and warm 50s.  .  Roller coaster warm through Thu.  Colder Fri - Tue, warmer Christmas to the 30th. 

Peak cold could yield a -10 to -15 daily (12/21 - 12/23).
Peak warmth was around +15 (yesterday and perhaps between 27 - 29)/

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Im assuming JFK has to do with the south wind days and the water?

It’s a good question. I have noticed that the JFK departures can vary either up or down from the other sites from time to time. It could be the onshore influence.

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a good question. I have noticed that the JFK departures can vary either up or down from the other sites from time to time. It could be the onshore influence.

within the five boroughs and immediate metro area it’s really the only large open field. it’s quite possibly the least affected by man-made structures of all the sites.

 

I always laugh at the Newark reading. A more disgusting place to take a weather observation I can’t think of: cement, airport, Marine terminal, boats, planes, trains… And you wonder why it’s always so hot.

 

if you could see Newark from the air, it looks like a kid went wild with every micro machine city possible pushed together on a small table… and there was nothing cooler than micro machines

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (2023)
NYC: 63 (1984)
LGA: 63 (2023)
JFK: 64 (1984)

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1953)
NYC: -1 (1919)
LGA: 16 (1953)
JFK: 16 (1973)

Historical:

 

1957 - A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre, MT, the mercury plunged to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1984 - A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain, and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England, where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed across the eastern states. Sheridan, WY, with a record warm afternoon high of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain, sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours. Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - A monster snow storm affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. on December 18th through December 20th. The storm originated in the Gulf of Mexico and moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard, leaving behind heavy snow accumulations from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Impacts from this storm included the closing of major airports, interstate highways, and rail systems. Over 1,200 flights were cancelled at the three major airports in the New York City area, and hundreds of thousands of people lost power due to the storm. Seven people were reported killed across the Mid-Atlantic (source: Reuters). Over two feet of snow accumulation was reported in portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. At one point, the storm was over 500 miles in width, and affected 14 states and tens of millions of Americans (Source: AFP).

[SACRUS]

 

Rain close  to C -PA

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

within the five boroughs and immediate metro area it’s really the only large open field. it’s quite possibly the least affected by man-made structures of all the sites.

 

I always laugh at the Newark reading. A more disgusting place to take a weather observation I can’t think of: cement, airport, Marine terminal, boats, planes, trains… And you wonder why it’s always so hot.

 

if you could see Newark from the air, it looks like a kid went wild with every micro machine city possible pushed together on a small table… and there was nothing cooler than micro machines

Yeah, the JFK ASOS is actually fairly close to the 5 Towns area in Nassau in a very marshy spot. Readings would be much warmer especially during the summer if the ASOS was closer the Belt. When I lived in LB JFK readings were several degrees warmer  than what I got a few blocks from the beach. But I would get the sea breeze sooner in the warm season so my highs would be a little lower than JFK. Oceanside was fairly close to JFK with the sea breeze timing and temperatures.

The Newark ASOS is fairly close to the Bay. So any SSE component will drop the temperatures relative to downtown Newark. Unfortunately, that whole corridor in NJ is the warmest spot in the area due to how urbanized NE NJ is plus the warm down sloping from the hills to the west. So my guess is that we are probably missing the highest temperatures in that region since there isn’t a good downtown Newark site. We probably owe it to the people that live there and don’t get the benefit of a sea breeze like EWR gets.

Harrison may be the closest in number of 90° days that the downtown of Newark gets. 
 

Data for January 1, 2024 through December 18, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending 90° days

HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	41
HARRISON	COOP	41
CANOE BROOK	COOP	37
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	35
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	33
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	33

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (2023)
NYC: 63 (1984)
LGA: 63 (2023)
JFK: 64 (1984)

Lows:

EWR: 13 (1953)
NYC: -1 (1919)
LGA: 16 (1953)
JFK: 16 (1973)

Historical:

 

1957 - A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David Ludlum)

1983 - Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre, MT, the mercury plunged to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1984 - A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain, and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England, where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed across the eastern states. Sheridan, WY, with a record warm afternoon high of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain, sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours. Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - A monster snow storm affected the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. on December 18th through December 20th. The storm originated in the Gulf of Mexico and moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard, leaving behind heavy snow accumulations from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Impacts from this storm included the closing of major airports, interstate highways, and rail systems. Over 1,200 flights were cancelled at the three major airports in the New York City area, and hundreds of thousands of people lost power due to the storm. Seven people were reported killed across the Mid-Atlantic (source: Reuters). Over two feet of snow accumulation was reported in portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. At one point, the storm was over 500 miles in width, and affected 14 states and tens of millions of Americans (Source: AFP).

Following the 1989 weather history over the last 2 weeks has been interesting.  Was brutal for cold and snow across the country.  Our area had the cold but missed out on most of the snow to the south.  Big snows 12/23 or 12/24 for southeast coast if I remember the dates correctly.  Once to January winter was essentially over for our area as it warmed big time.

 

Remember the 2009 event well.  Remember when Winter storms would lift north out of the GOM, been a long time.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Following the 1989 weather history over the last 2 weeks has been interesting.  Was brutal for cold and snow across the country.  Our area had the cold but missed out on most of the snow to the south.  Big snows 12/23 or 12/24 for southeast coast if I remember the dates correctly.  Once to January winter was essentially over for our area as it warmed big time.

 

Remember the 2009 event well.  Remember when Winter storms would lift north out of the GOM, been a long time.

December 89 was colder than all but 2 Januaries since 91. I can still remember the snow around Thanksgiving. Was thinking we may have been on a 76-77 track that December. Everyone was really surprised how quickly the pattern changed around New Years with one of the warmest Januaries after the 2nd coldest December. That December would have been considered cold back in the Little Ice Age. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1917	25.0	0
-	1876	25.0	0
2	1989	25.9	0
3	1880	26.4	0
4	1872	26.7	0
5	1926	28.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2004	24.7	0
2	1994	25.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2023	43.5	0
2	1932	43.2	0
3	1950	41.8	2
4	1990	41.4	0
5	2006	40.9	0

 

[Stormlover74]

48 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Following the 1989 weather history over the last 2 weeks has been interesting.  Was brutal for cold and snow across the country.  Our area had the cold but missed out on most of the snow to the south.  Big snows 12/23 or 12/24 for southeast coast if I remember the dates correctly.  Once to January winter was essentially over for our area as it warmed big time.

 

Remember the 2009 event well.  Remember when Winter storms would lift north out of the GOM, been a long time.

Yeah even down by Philly I remember snow being on the ground on christmas that year. Our area just had a bunch of days with snow showers and minor dustings between the 21st and 28th

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah even down by Philly I remember snow being on the ground on christmas that year. Our area just had a bunch of days with snow showers and minor dustings between the 21st and 28th

Was a brutal month-I lived outside of Philly then was in High school-we were on the northern fringe of almost every snow event (most of them were small)

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Tatamy said:

We had the same type of gradient out here with that event.  There was some type of convergence zone with this system.  The band of heavy snow with this was only about 15-25 miles wide.  It was visible on radar out in Ohio the day before.  Interesting synoptic setup with that one.

This was probably the first time we saw such a narrow snowband track exactly due east from Illinois with the record jet streak.

 

 

[WX-PA]

Possible light snow Christmas eve on the CMC..GFS a little warmer but close.

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was probably the first time we saw such a narrow snowband track exactly due east from Illinois. 

 

Thank you for finding and posting this.  Very unique system in terms of how it evolved.  The gradient on that was something straight out of a lake effect band.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Thank you for finding and posting this.  Very unique system in terms of how it evolved.  The gradient on that was something straight out of a lake effect band.

This is why I would much rather take my chances with a record STJ than a record Northern Stream.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is why I would much rather take my chances with a record STJ than a record Northern Stream.

Too bad the only time we were able to have any cold air with the Nino driven storms was was early Feb. We did make it count somewhat.