December 2024

[Brian5671]

50 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

With the meteorological world steeped in frustration a nation turns its lonely eyes to the highly esteemed Joseph Bastardi. For years Mr. Bastardi has graced us with his immeasurable wisdom and provided guidance and soul searching for budding practitioners of the barometric arts. As the long doldrums of a barren winter eviscerate our hopes and emasculate our most fervent snow packed dreams, we pray for Mr. Bastardi to extend us the blessings of his everlasting graciousness and meterological fiber, and to comfort us in our time of need.


.

Not much help there-his forecast is for above normal temps and below normal snowfall for the northeast

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? 

That's why we track.  Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it.  

Snow is snow

Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy.

No point posting in this subforum .

Yup. No reason right now to write this thing off. It's absolutely possible for a light 1-2 inch type event in this sub forum late Friday/Saturday. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? 

That's why we track.  Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it.  

Snow is snow

Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy.

No point posting in this subforum .

SNE is a completely different climate than NYC.   

[winterwx21]

Felt great today with a high temp of 59 here. Single digits Sunday night? Not looking forward to that type of cold. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Felt great today with a high temp of 59 here. Single digits Sunday night? Not looking forward to that type of cold. 

tickled 60 here-my son and his friend snuck onto the local golfcourse and played 4 holes

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even in this era of warm extremes the last week of December really stands out for the North American continent.

https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3ldhqhn4gxs2a

Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period.

 

To be sure but ... above normal dos not mean record.  Potential exists for 1 or 2 days.  Think we need to think backdoors in the northeast USA.  Torch should be central USA before all this ridging shifts N to Canada and we start cooling in the USA with uncutting short waves near or s of 40N. .  Shortest days of the year. 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? 

That's why we track.  Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it.  

Snow is snow

Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy.

No point posting in this subforum .

Please let us know how much snow you get before the next warm up 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

To be sure but ... above normal dos not mean record.  Potential exists for 1 or 2 days.  Think we need to think backdoors in the northeast USA.  Torch should be central USA before all this ridging shifts N to Canada and we start cooling in the USA with uncutting short waves near or s of 40N. .  Shortest days of the year. 

I posted it to show how remarkably warm the North American continent will be. Probably near record low snow cover extent for this time of year with Hudson Bay not frozen over yet. I agree about that big high east of New England should keep us in an onshore flow from the first 3-4 days of the period. So we’ll probably have to wait closer to New Years’s Eve to get over 50°. But the greater story is NYC could go the 26th to 31st without dropping below freezing for the 2nd year in a row.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds gave way to sunshine and the temperature surged into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the Northeast. In places, the temperature approached daily records. Highs included:

Atlantic City: 619
Baltimore: 64°
Bangor: 57°
Boston: 60°
Caribou: 50°
Hartford: 60°
Islip: 60°
New York City-Central Park: 59°
New York City-JFK Airport: 58°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 60°
Newark: 61°
Philadelphia: 63°
Portland: 56°
Providence: 61°
Richmond: 71°
Washington, DC: 65° (tied record set in 2021)

A cooling trend will commence tomorrow. A much sharper shot of cold will then aarive during the weekend. The potential exists for the temperature to fall into the teens for the first time this season in New York City. In addition, a system will likely bring some periods of light snow to the region late Friday into early Saturday morning. A minor accumulation is possible in the Philadelphia to New York City region. The potential exists for a 1"-3"/2"-4" snowfall in the Boston area.

Beyond that, the pattern will likely remain changeable through much of the rest of the month on account of a fast jet stream.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures and January will likely see at least its opening days turn out milder than normal.

In past days, an occasional run of the operational GFS showed a significant snowstorm from Washington, DC to New York City. However, the pattern makes such an event very unlikely for this region. Since 1950, there were 5 December snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of these cities. Four (80%) occurred with a PNA+/NAO- pattern. The NAO is forecast to be positive. In addition, three (60%) occurred when the MJO was in Phase 8, which is not likely over the next 10 days. Only the December 23-25, 1966 event produced 6" or more snow in all three cities with a positive NAO, but the AO was strongly negative (< -2.000), which is not likely during the next 10 days. In sum, the interior sections will be far more favored for an appreciable or perhaps greater snowfall than the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia-New York City area over the next 10 days. A smaller snowfall remains plausible.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around December 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +9.76 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.109 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.0° (2.1° below normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

SNE is a completely different climate than NYC.   

Eh I don't think it makes much difference in this pattern. And SNE is closer to what NYC used to be. 

It's really C/NNE that's completely different 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Eh I don't think it makes much difference in this pattern. And SNE is closer to what NYC used to be. 

It's really C/NNE that's completely different 

Yeah, Boston has averaged 26.1” for this decade so far which was what NYC used to average.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.9	T	5.2	12.2	7.0	0.6	0.2	26.1
2019-2020	0.0	T	11.5	3.1	0.5	T	0.7	15.8
2020-2021	4.3	T	13.0	5.8	15.3	0.1	0.1	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.4	36.2	15.3	2.1	T	54.0
2022-2023	0.0	T	1.0	6.9	3.6	0.9	0.0	12.4
2023-2024	0.0	T	0.2	9.0	0.5	T	0.1	9.8

[wdrag]

I saw the NAEFS and CPC prediction.   Lots of things can mess this up.  FOG-Stratus after the Christmas Day event. We might not get 60+ til we see a strong storm northeast into the Great Lakes which might not be til the 29th-30th?

 

We've got snow risks Friday into early Sat,  and also Christmas Day. After that?  

I may get a CP thread going tomorrow if trends continue to favor an event.  Seems to me 1/2-3" Poconos across NJ w LI and also eastern MA RI.  WSSI-P attached. Low probs for an advisory event (my interp)... this is a conservative product.  LI and s NJ least chance of meaningful snow (daytime temps above 32F part of the issue)  

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The problem with using Central Park DATA  is that it is not representative of what actually fell across other areas of the immediate metro - such as last year -when areas just west and southwest of the city in Union/Middlesex County NJ received almost 20 inches total for the season - by the way if you can see The Freedom Tower or the Empire State building from certain points in your town in the distance you are in the immediate NYC metro......

That band in CNJ was the exception rather than the rule across the area. All the sites across the area are similar to NYC in having one of their lowest snowfall starts to a decade. It was a bright spot for locals in that area. Almost like a version of what happened in a very narrow band on Long Island in December 1988. 

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That band in CNJ was the exception rather than the rule across the area. All the sites across the area are similar to NYC in having one of their lowest snowfall starts to a decade. It was a bright spot for locals in that area. Almost like a version of what happened in a very narrow band on Long Island in December 1988. 

 

 

 

The 2/16 event was also known as the I-78 death band.  I took these pictures the morning after.  The one with the highway interchange in it was at a car dealership on the north side of Hellertown, PA.  About 5-6” fell there.  The other one was at a car dealership on the south side.  10” fell there.  Crazy stuff

[Tatamy]

Just now, Tatamy said:

The 2/16 event was also known as the I-78 death band.  I took these pictures the morning after.  The one with the highway interchange in it was at a car dealership on the north side of Hellertown, PA.  About 5-6” fell there.  The other one was at a car dealership on the south side.  10” fell there.  Crazy stuff

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That band in CNJ was the exception rather than the rule across the area. All the sites across the area are similar to NYC in having one of their lowest snowfall starts to a decade. It was a bright spot for locals in that area. Almost like a version of what happened in a very narrow band on Long Island in December 1988. 

 

 

 

Great surprise! It was one of only 2 weeks we got winter weather last winter 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you know, 5-10 years ago, discourse about even the smallest storms was encouraged

Still is

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? 

That's why we track.  Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it.  

Snow is snow

Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy.

No point posting in this subforum .

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean. Have you been watching the models? 

That's why we track.  Weird how no one on this subforum is tracking this while the other subforums are tracking it.  

Snow is snow

Now back to SNE subforum where the discussion is actually worthy.

No point posting in this subforum .

 

On 12/1/2024 at 3:28 PM, Rjay said:

This sub has been on point for the last few years.  You like other subs and forums bc they say things you want to hear more often.  I've noticed this with other posters as well and this type of thought pattern bleeds into every other area of life too. 

 

[Franklin0529]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That band in CNJ was the exception rather than the rule across the area. All the sites across the area are similar to NYC in having one of their lowest snowfall starts to a decade. It was a bright spot for locals in that area. Almost like a version of what happened in a very narrow band on Long Island in December 1988. 

 

 

 

Got 10.5" from that storm in hazlet. I stayed up all night watching it. One of the heaviest snow bands I ever seen. It was coming down 

[BxEngine]

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

Now do the cold and dry crying…

[milleand]

38 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Got 10.5" from that storm in hazlet. I stayed up all night watching it. One of the heaviest snow bands I ever seen. It was coming down 

From Union Beach -I was so mad I had to travel to Ireland that weekend and missed it. Was watching through the blink cameras ha. Couldn't believe how much fell. 

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, milleand said:

From Union Beach -I was so mad I had to travel to Ireland that weekend and missed it. Was watching through the blink cameras ha. Couldn't believe how much fell. 

Yea man. That was the only storm we had really. Rest of winter sucked

[Rjay]

20 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Now do the cold and dry crying…

Nah cold and dry sucks 

[Stormlover74]

Maybe we'll squeeze out an inch Friday 

[eduggs]

There's a pretty decent QPF signal for the damping wave(s) Dec 24-26 on the GFS. Warm front pushing into entrenched cold air. The ECM and CMC have it too, but slightly drier. Kind of an under the radar threat, but it's something to watch.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

On the European model the Friday night storm system is a bit further northwest of last ECMWF run. I'm not sure it's going to make a difference. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Again this has very little time to turn into anything.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121800/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png

[NEG NAO]

50 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

On the European model the Friday night storm system is a bit further northwest of last ECMWF run. I'm not sure it's going to make a difference. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Again this has very little time to turn into anything.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121800/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png

We will be entering Mesoscale model range tomorrow and it would just take a shift 50 -75 miles west for this to produce a light to moderate snowfall for areas in Central/ Northern NJ and possibly further east if temps are low enough to support frozen - on the other hand any small shift east gives us next to nothing..........

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

On the European model the Friday night storm system is a bit further northwest of last ECMWF run. I'm not sure it's going to make a difference. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Again this has very little time to turn into anything.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121800/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_4.png

IMO, this is a meh at best, less than an inch of snow “event” Friday night. Glorified snow showers. The 0z runs trended less impressive if anything. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the models take another step back on today’s runs

[wdrag]

Probably starting a thread around 730AM for the possible first measurable of the season for CP and PHL too.  At least snowman sees it. Agree with others on Xmas. Need another look.  Saw the ECMWF updated long range.  It's not far from normal temps Dec 23-30.