December 2024

[Tatamy]

Listed below is a summary of winters by decade that had 30” or more of snow in Central Park.  This is from the NWS website.  The numbers speak for themselves.  Seasonal snow totals are declining with global warming.  A lot of people were spoiled by the number of large storms that occurred in the first two decades of this century.  Unfortunately these storms and the resulting higher snow totals were not representative of the longer term seasonal norms for this region.  It’s a bitter pill for snow lovers to swallow however this is climatology.

1870s - 5

1880s - 7

1890s - 5

1900s - 4

1910s - 5

1920s - 2

1930s - 4

1940s - 5

1950s - 2

1960s - 4

1970s - 1

1980s - 0

1990s - 2

2000s - 6

2010s - 6

2020s - 1

[Wxoutlooksblog]

14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Listed below is a summary of winters by decade that had 30” or more of snow in Central Park.  This is from the NWS website.  The numbers speak for themselves.  Seasonal snow totals are declining with global warming.  A lot of people were spoiled by the number of large storms that occurred in the first two decades of this century.  Unfortunately these storms and the resulting higher snow totals were not representative of the longer term seasonal norms for this region.  It’s a bitter pill for snow lovers to swallow however this is climatology.

1870s - 5

1880s - 7

1890s - 5

1900s - 4

1910s - 5

1920s - 2

1930s - 4

1940s - 5

1950s - 2

1960s - 4

1970s - 1

1980s - 0

1990s - 2

2000s - 6

2010s - 6

2020s - 1

While I believe the science of global warming and climate change I do not believe the above data is very good evidence of it. So far in the 2020s Central Park is ahead of the 1980s and tied with the 1970s. With 5 more winters ahead of us this decade this is IMO not evidence that our average number of 30+ seasonal snowfall amounts per decade is going down. We had two at second highest back to back 2000s and 2010s. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

All the models have shifted west for the weekend storm but will it be enough?

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

While I believe the science of global warming and climate change I do not believe the above data is very good evidence of it. So far in the 2020s Central Park is ahead of the 1980s and tied with the 1970s. With 5 more winters ahead of us this decade this is IMO not evidence that our average number of 30+ seasonal snowfall amounts per decade is going down. We had two in second place back to back 2000s and 2010s. 

WX/PT

In the first 8 decades on the list there are 37 winter seasons with seasonal totals of 30” or more.  In the last 8 decades there are 22.  And yes the remaining winter seasons of this decade could add another 6 to that total if everything goes just right.  It’s true that there other ways to analyze this.  However even if we are lucky enough to get 2 or 3 30” winters in the remaining years of this decade there is still a big difference in the numbers.

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models have shifted west for the weekend storm but will it be enough?

What you are seeing are the globals trying to position an IVT from several days out.  I would be very cautious with this setup.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

11 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

In the first 8 decades on the list there are 37 winter seasons with seasonal totals of 30” or more.  In the last 8 decades there are 22.  And yes the remaining winter seasons of this decade could add another 6 to that total if everything goes just right.  It’s true that there other ways to analyze this.  However even if we are lucky enough to get 2 or 3 30” winters in the remaining years of this decade there is still a big difference in the numbers.

But by using this data as proof you are saying we cannot have more decades of 6 or 7 winters per decade of 30+. I'm not sure I buy your conclusion because there are many weather pattern changes from winter to winter for many reasons and not only global warming. In fact many changes from winter to winter could have nothing to do with global warming. And certainly lack of cold is not why we have had no snow this December. 

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Gefs with a big shift west

[Wxoutlooksblog]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models have shifted west for the weekend storm but will it be enough?

It's not nearly enough for what you're hoping for and the jet stream is still incredibly fast. I just still cannot see this trough going negative in time for a snowstorm in NYC but I agree it still bares watching.

WX/PT

 

[Nibor]

 

[MJO812]

Ukie is way north of 12z

[MJO812]

Cmc has mood flakes for Christmas Eve and cold for both Christmas Eve and Day

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is way north of 12z

When you get the low that much further north in that position look at what else is further north. The antecedent HP is practically off the map and it wasn't that cold to begin with. Incoming HP now a bit far to the west.  You could have a r/s line nw of the NYC. But I think that's the only model showing the HP and LP that far north. It's going to be difficult to make this happen, not saying it's impossible. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The Euro is a jump to the west and a stronger storm is being generated offshore. But it has very little time in which the trough must go negative and that's not happening just yet. But it might. Also noticing that the clipper is dropping a little further south. If the trend continues we could be in business but it's just so little time in which this all has to come together I'm still skeptical. If we were in business because of the speed I think it would be a quick hitting inch or two at best if it even accumulated. You cannot get a big storm with anything moving this fast. Give me some more blocking and retrograde the ridge out west, different story.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121700/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_5.png

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The Euro is a jump to the west and a stronger storm is being generated offshore. But it has very little time in which the trough must go negative and that's not happening just yet. But it might. Also noticing that the clipper is dropping a little further south. If the trend continues we could be in business but it's just so little time in which this all has to come together I'm still a bit skeptical. 

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121700/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_5.png

I would think if it does happen it would be an eastern half of NJ - NYC and Long Island/Connecticut event - considering how odd the weather has been this year wouldn't be a surprise if areas near PA/NJ border get snow showers and eastern most NJ and points east gets much more snow and or rain...........

[Bxstormwatcher360]

All the models have everything slowly coming in to place with the cmc and nogaps models giving us a outright snowstorm,the euro is coming around. White christmas perhaps after so long??.

[North and West]

While I believe the science of global warming and climate change I do not believe the above data is very good evidence of it. So far in the 2020s Central Park is ahead of the 1980s and tied with the 1970s. With 5 more winters ahead of us this decade this is IMO not evidence that our average number of 30+ seasonal snowfall amounts per decade is going down. We had two at second highest back to back 2000s and 2010s. 
WX/PT

Reversion to the mean. We all knew in the back of our mind that the 2000s and 2010s were wildly good for snowfall. The 2020s - outside of February 2021 - have not been. It’s how averages come to be.


.

[North and West]

Cmc has mood flakes for Christmas Eve and cold for both Christmas Eve and Day
 
 

Even though I don’t think you’re going to be correct, I do appreciate your overly optimistic outlook versus the nonstop Nattering Nabobs of Negativism.

Same show comes on each and every year.


.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

All the models have everything slowly coming in to place with the cmc and nogaps models giving us a outright snowstorm,the euro is coming around. White christmas perhaps after so long??.

Long shot 

There are many people still tracking this but I think in the end this misses. Looking like snow showers most likely.

[wdrag]

No thread (for now) on possible first measurable snowfall NYC-PHL Friday-Saturday morning. Plenty of uncertainty including Friday daytime temps=melting , if it does snow. Worthy of monitoring for what for us might be a minor event?  ICON lost it.  Once the CMC drops it, then I do too. WSSI-P attached snowing the potential area for minor impact snowfall...all low probs in a 24 hour period ending 18z Saturday. 

 

 

[snowman19]

The Saturday snowstorm threat is done IMO. The models would be showing it by now. It was a totally thread the needle setup and if you look back, thread the needle setups haven’t worked for us in 10 years….since 2014. January, 2016 (blizzard), March, 2018 worked because of huge -NAO/-AO blocking and ditto for February, 2021. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Saturday snowstorm threat is done IMO. The models would be showing it by now. It was a totally thread the needle setup and if you look back, thread the needle setups haven’t worked for us in 10 years….since 2014. January, 2016 (blizzard), March, 2018 worked because of huge -NAO/-AO blocking and ditto for February, 2021. 

Agree

 

[MJO812]

Well at least we have this to look forward to

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well at least we have this to look forward to

Dry useless cold. Woohoo! 

[wishcast_hater]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dry useless cold. Woohoo! 

It's beneficial cold for the ski resorts to build there snow pack before the EFFIN PAC JET comes back.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

It's beneficial cold for the ski resorts to build there snow pack before the EFFIN PAC JET comes back.

No ski resort here.  

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Listed below is a summary of winters by decade that had 30” or more of snow in Central Park.  This is from the NWS website.  The numbers speak for themselves.  Seasonal snow totals are declining with global warming.  A lot of people were spoiled by the number of large storms that occurred in the first two decades of this century.  Unfortunately these storms and the resulting higher snow totals were not representative of the longer term seasonal norms for this region.  It’s a bitter pill for snow lovers to swallow however this is climatology.

1870s - 5

1880s - 7

1890s - 5

1900s - 4

1910s - 5

1920s - 2

1930s - 4

1940s - 5

1950s - 2

1960s - 4

1970s - 1

1980s - 0

1990s - 2

2000s - 6

2010s - 6

2020s - 1

This has been one of the least snowy starts to a new decade that we have seen through the halfway point. The one thing  that sets this one apart is that it’s easily the warmest. So for both warmth and lack of snow this is in 1st place so far. While we can see the 1950s decades was off to a similarly slow start, this decade so far is warmer. The early 50s were drier so there was less precipitation contributing to the lower totals. We have been wetter in the 2020s so a greater percentage of our total precipitation is falling as rain than in the 1950s.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.6	0.9	8.3	12.7	16.6	1.7	T	40.8
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	51.4
2010-2011	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	61.9
2011-2012	2.9	0.0	0.0	4.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	7.4
2012-2013	0.0	4.7	0.4	1.5	12.2	7.3	0.0	26.1
2013-2014	0.0	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	8.8	8.7	8.3	2.5	1.0	29.3
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	T	9.5	5.2	0.4	1.2	16.3
2000-2001	T	0.0	13.4	8.3	9.5	3.8	0.0	35.0
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	T	3.5	T	T	T	3.5
2002-2003	T	T	11.0	4.7	26.1	3.5	4.0	49.3
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	19.8	17.3	0.7	4.8	0.0	42.6

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.9	3.3	5.0	9.8	6.5	0.1	25.8
1989-1990	0.0	4.7	1.4	1.8	1.8	3.1	0.6	13.4
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	7.2	8.4	9.1	0.2	0.0	24.9
1991-1992	0.0	T	0.7	1.5	1.0	9.4	T	12.6
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	10.7	11.9	0.0	24.5
1993-1994	0.0	T	6.9	12.0	26.4	8.1	0.0	53.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	2.6	7.1	5.0	5.2	2.1	21.9
1979-1980	T	0.0	3.5	2.0	2.7	4.6	T	12.8
1980-1981	0.0	T	2.8	8.0	T	8.6	0.0	19.4
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	2.1	11.8	0.4	0.7	9.6	24.6
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.9	21.5	T	0.8	27.2
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.6	11.7	0.2	11.9	0.0	25.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	T	2.4	6.4	6.9	2.2	0.1	18.1
1969-1970	0.0	T	6.8	8.4	6.4	4.0	T	25.6
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	2.4	11.4	T	1.3	0.4	15.5
1971-1972	0.0	T	T	2.8	17.8	2.3	T	22.9
1972-1973	T	T	T	1.8	0.8	0.2	T	2.8
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.8	9.4	3.2	0.3	23.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	11.6	7.7	9.5	5.7	T	34.6
1959-1960	0.0	0.5	15.8	2.5	1.9	18.5	0.0	39.2
1960-1961	T	0.0	18.6	16.7	18.2	1.2	T	54.7
1961-1962	0.0	T	7.7	0.6	9.6	0.2	T	18.1
1962-1963	T	T	4.5	5.3	3.7	2.8	T	16.3
1963-1964	0.0	T	11.3	13.3	14.1	6.0	T	44.7

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.9	3.2	4.9	2.8	2.5	0.4	14.8
1949-1950	0.0	0.5	1.3	0.4	8.5	1.4	1.9	14.0
1950-1951	0.0	T	3.8	0.9	1.9	2.7	0.0	9.3
1951-1952	0.0	T	3.3	6.2	2.8	7.4	0.0	19.7
1952-1953	0.5	1.7	7.5	4.1	0.4	0.9	T	15.1
1953-1954	0.0	2.2	T	12.7	0.5	0.1	0.3	15.8

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	40.9	36.9	38.6	38.8
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	40.1	40.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	38.4	32.6	35.1	35.4
2009-2010	35.9	32.5	33.1	33.8
2010-2011	32.8	29.7	36.0	32.8
2011-2012	43.3	37.3	40.9	40.5
2012-2013	41.5	35.1	33.9	36.8
2013-2014	38.5	28.6	31.6	32.9

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	37.7	31.4	35.8	35.0
1999-2000	39.9	31.3	37.3	36.2
2000-2001	31.1	33.6	35.9	33.5
2001-2002	44.1	39.9	40.6	41.5
2002-2003	36.0	27.5	30.1	31.2
2003-2004	37.6	24.7	35.0	32.4

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	36.6	34.8	35.5	35.6
1989-1990	25.9	41.4	39.7	35.7
1990-1991	42.6	34.9	39.9	39.1
1991-1992	39.6	35.7	36.3	37.2
1992-1993	37.9	36.3	30.8	35.0
1993-1994	37.3	25.5	30.6	31.1

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	37.6	30.1	36.6	34.8
1979-1980	41.1	33.7	31.4	35.4
1980-1981	32.4	26.2	39.3	32.6
1981-1982	36.5	26.1	35.3	32.6
1982-1983	42.7	34.5	36.4	37.9
1983-1984	35.2	29.9	40.6	35.2

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	37.2	31.6	32.7	33.8
1969-1970	33.4	25.1	33.0	30.5
1970-1971	34.4	26.9	35.1	32.1
1971-1972	40.8	35.0	31.4	35.7
1972-1973	38.5	35.5	32.5	35.5
1973-1974	39.0	35.2	31.7	35.3

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	33.5	32.0	33.1	32.9
1959-1960	38.4	33.9	36.3	36.2
1960-1961	30.9	27.7	36.6	31.7
1961-1962	35.5	32.6	31.8	33.3
1962-1963	31.5	30.1	28.2	29.9
1963-1964	31.2	35.6	32.8	33.2

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	38.6	36.6	36.6	37.3
1949-1950	39.4	41.8	31.6	37.6
1950-1951	34.9	36.4	36.9	36.1
1951-1952	39.1	36.2	36.2	37.2
1952-1953	38.4	37.6	38.4	38.1
1953-1954	41.3	30.8	40.1	37.4

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.13	3.64	2.85	4.39	16.00
2019-2020	7.09	1.93	2.54	3.78	15.34
2020-2021	4.61	2.31	5.13	3.41	15.46
2021-2022	1.39	4.29	3.23	2.39	11.30
2022-2023	5.83	4.38	1.28	3.32	14.81
2023-2024	6.71	5.28	2.05	9.06	23.10

 

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.88	3.33	2.61	4.87	14.70
1949-1950	2.28	2.26	4.44	2.73	11.71
1950-1951	4.32	3.31	3.05	5.62	16.30
1951-1952	4.28	4.55	1.38	4.00	14.21
1952-1953	4.12	4.90	2.37	8.76	20.15
1953-1954	4.42	1.65	1.81	3.25	11.13

[Brian5671]

10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea this weather is horrific. Make it end. My snowblower still in the back of my garage. Not even close to moving it to the front 

Havent used mine since Jan 2022

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Havent used mine since Jan 2022

Same

[forkyfork]

compared to this decade the 80s were a winter paradise 

[EWR757]

One nice thing about the stratus and fog on Monday is that the good people of NJ didn't see any space aliens or UFOs, also known as aircraft landing at EWR and TEB. 

As the weather becomes VFR later today the "UFOs" should be visible again, well at least when said observers aren't looking at their TikTok or SKIMs discount messages.