December 2024

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What is the analog for a winter with a COLD and SNOWLESS Dec for NYC? Just curious.

 

Are we in uncharted territory here?

December 2022 was the last time.

 

Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - December 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	1369	1016	-	-	815	0	5.83	T	-
Average	44.2	32.8	38.5	-0.6	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	44.3	33.8	39.1	-	804	0	4.38	4.9	-
2022-12-01	43	35	39.0	-4.2	26	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-02	47	32	39.5	-3.4	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-03	58	45	51.5	8.9	13	0	0.49	0.0	0
2022-12-04	45	38	41.5	-0.8	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-05	48	36	42.0	0.0	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-06	58	42	50.0	8.3	15	0	1.05	0.0	0
2022-12-07	59	54	56.5	15.1	8	0	0.26	0.0	0
2022-12-08	55	42	48.5	7.4	16	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-09	45	36	40.5	-0.4	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-10	39	32	35.5	-5.1	29	0	T	0.0	0
2022-12-11	40	33	36.5	-3.8	28	0	0.32	T	0
2022-12-12	38	28	33.0	-7.0	32	0	0.01	T	0
2022-12-13	40	25	32.5	-7.2	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-14	39	31	35.0	-4.5	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-15	42	33	37.5	-1.7	27	0	0.51	0.0	0
2022-12-16	44	38	41.0	2.1	24	0	0.85	0.0	0
2022-12-17	44	36	40.0	1.4	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-18	40	32	36.0	-2.4	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-19	39	31	35.0	-3.1	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-20	39	30	34.5	-3.4	30	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-21	40	27	33.5	-4.1	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-22	47	35	41.0	3.6	24	0	0.23	0.0	0
2022-12-23	58	8	33.0	-4.1	32	0	1.83	T	0
2022-12-24	15	7	11.0	-25.9	54	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-25	28	14	21.0	-15.7	44	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-26	29	18	23.5	-12.9	41	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-27	35	29	32.0	-4.2	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-28	47	33	40.0	4.0	25	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-29	51	40	45.5	9.7	19	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-30	62	46	54.0	18.4	11	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-12-31	55	50	52.5	17.1	12	0	0.28	0.0	0

[Eduardo]

I’ll be thrilled to at least have it cold for Xmas, even if we can’t luck our way into some appreciable snow.  Nothing worse than a true, balmy Torchmas.

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Back and forth pattern for the rest of the month with the dominant storm track through the Great Lakes. Warm up day 1-5 with a cooldown day 6-10. Then a warm up from around Christmas to the New Years.

 

 

 

Only good thing is that it looks solidly below normal in the days leading up to and through Christmas, that seems like a lock at this point.  At least no balmy 50's - 60 with rain.  The pattern the following week looks nasty though, that is a little further away so we'll see but better than 50% confidence for a mild run up to New Year's.  Seems very unlikely to me that CP will see any measurable from now through the end of the month.  We should be grateful that December looks to finish below normal temperature wise.  That is a big win these days.

[psv88]

17 this morning. 
 

cold without snow is a complete waste. It’s the worst type of weather option we have. Cold and bare ground. Horrific. 
 

at least we weren’t shut out for the month out here, but one inch I not much when we’ve had this much cold 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

17 this morning. 
 

cold without snow is a complete waste. It’s the worst type of weather option we have. Cold and bare ground. Horrific. 
 

at least we weren’t shut out for the month out here, but one inch I not much when we’ve had this much cold 

We need a 2000esque late month rally. That month was just endless cold and dry until the big end of the month storm but everything came together perfectly for that one. Missed DC, rained in Boston. Crushed in between

[the_other_guy]

21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

17 this morning. 
 

cold without snow is a complete waste. It’s the worst type of weather option we have. Cold and bare ground. Horrific. 
 

at least we weren’t shut out for the month out here, but one inch I not much when we’ve had this much cold 

A lot of skiers on here disagree with you. Been to Belleayre 3 times already.

 

Keep the cold coming…snow is gravy

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We need a 2000esque late month rally. That month was just endless cold and dry until the big end of the month storm but everything came together perfectly for that one. Missed DC, rained in Boston. Crushed in between

Bluewave’s pointed it out many times but the fast Pacific pattern is ruining what storm chances we get and making it much more Nina-like which is cold/dry to warm/wet. The cold troughs are replaced a few days later with a ridge which is when we get the storms. We need a mechanism like blocking to keep the trough in the east when storms come so we don’t get cutters or overwhelming warmth when they happen from the SE ridge flexing. 

[MJO812]

Waste of cold this month

Not even a dusting on the ground

Now the gfs and cmc are mild for Christmas . Our climate sucks.

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A lot of skiers on here disagree with you. Been to Belleayre 3 times already.

 

Keep the cold coming…snow is gravy

Happy that the ski mountains have snow. When we in this forum discuss weather and rate winters it’s based on what happens where we live, not in mountains. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

A lot of skiers on here disagree with you. Been to Belleayre 3 times already.

 

Keep the cold coming…snow is gravy

I hate skiing

[MJO812]

Bamwx snowfall outlook for January and February.

[MANDA]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Waste of cold this month

Not even a dusting on the ground

Now the gfs and cmc are mild for Christmas . Our climate sucks.

The days leading up to Christmas are going to be cold.  The last CMC was extreme and not likely but I'm pretty confident it is going to be below normal as we start Christmas week.  Can't keep paying attention to flip flopping guidance.  Pattern is supporting a cold run up to Christmas.   Snow is another story, not likely.

 

For the record, something as cold as last CMC run is not entirely out of the question.  The degree of how cold it turns is uncertain at this point.

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

uh oh?    allow this short wave to dig and sharpen.  Still time. lots of changes coming...  ICON and Probabilistic WSSI-P also leaning for a minor NYC event event 20-21st.   We'll see if it holds or goes away.  For now in play as a small possibility. Mostly favors I90 north in NYS-MA. 

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The ECMWF has had this cold shot for several days with the temperature falling into the middle teens in NYC. We'll whether this run is actually colder once the higher-resolution figures come out on Wxmodels or Wxbell. Regardless, this will likely be December's strongest cold shot.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF has had this cold shot for several days with the temperature falling into the middle teens in NYC. We'll whether this run is actually colder once the higher-resolution figures come out on Wxmodels or Wxbell. Regardless, this will likely be December's strongest cold shot.

Just like 2022

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

The days leading up to Christmas are going to be cold.  The last CMC was extreme and not likely but I'm pretty confident it is going to be below normal as we start Christmas week.  Can't keep paying attention to flip flopping guidance.  Pattern is supporting a cold run up to Christmas.   Snow is another story, not likely.

 

For the record, something as cold as last CMC run is not entirely out of the question.  The degree of how cold it turns is uncertain at this point.

Yeah, NYC has a shot at dropping below 20° for the first time this season before Christmas. Better chance of getting NNW flow at that time which avoids the warmer Great Lakes. But the combined EPS and GEFS temperature forecasts for the week of the 25th to 31st are close to the warmest on record during that period for the entire North American continent averaged out.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC has a shot at dropping below 20° for the first time this season before Christmas. Better chance of getting NNW flow at that time which avoids the Great Lakes. But the combined EPS and GEFS temperature forecasts for the 26th to 31st are close to the warmest on record during that period for the entire North American continent averaged out.

Massive torch between Xmas and New Years, never fails

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just like 2022

It probably won't be as impressive as 2022, which saw two single-digit lows and a high temperature of just 15° on December 24th in NYC. It will still be fairly impressive.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The Euro today brought the ocean storm Dec 21-22-23 closer to the area than previous runs (lately). I would still think this remains primarily an ocean storm but it does bear some watching because if it trended just a little closer we'd be getting some snow.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_7.png

[NEG NAO]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It probably won't be as impressive as 2022, which saw two single-digit lows and a high temperature of just 15° on December 24th in NYC. It will still be fairly impressive.

if there is no snow on the ground it turns fairly impressive into a yawn IMO....

[NEG NAO]

48 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The Euro today brought the ocean storm Dec 21-22-23 closer to the area than previous runs (lately). I would still think this remains primarily an ocean storm but it does bear some watching because if it trended just a little closer we'd be getting some snow.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2024121512/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_7.png

If you go back to the beginning of this forum in 2010 - we were saying the same thing about the Boxing Day storm this far out..........and the weird thing is that was a La Nina winter with a similar beginning to the month a slight shift in the location of the HP and the storm makes a world of difference - still over 7 days out

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I hate skiing

Point taken, Anthony……  As always …l

[Roger Smith]

Looking at all data, NYC has seen a few cold Dec with little or no snow. 

In the colder half of all data, these Dec had 2.0" or less snowfall:

Rank _ DEC _ Avg T _ Snow

77 _ 1900 _ 36.3 _0.1"

72t_ 1954 _ 35.9 _0.1"

72t_ 1988 _ 35.9 _0.3"

67t_ 1885 _ 35.7 _Tr

67t_ 1901 _ 35.7 _2.0"

67t_ 1977 _ 35.7 _0.4"

65 _ 1937 _ 35.4 _0.7"

63 _ 1983 _ 35.2 _1.6"

61 _ 1925 _ 34.8 _ 0.9"

59t_ 1888 _ 34.7 _ Tr

57t_ 1898 _ 34.6 _1.5"

51t_ 1906 _ 34.2 _0.3"

51t_ 1985 _ 34.2 _0.9"

48t_ 1924 _ 34.0 _0.9"

46t_ 1875 _ 33.9 _1.0"

38t_ 1934 _ 33.4 _1.0"

37 _ 1943 _ 33.0 _Tr

17 _ 1882 _ 30.6 _ 0.0"

03 _ 1989_ 25.9 _ 1.4"

(note Dec 1875 was very cold first half and very mild second half)

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow just getting overhead as per radar. Not reaching ground yet. 31°

[sussexcountyobs]

46 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Massive torch between Xmas and New Years, never fails

3,4,5 degrees above normal for the date, is not a massive torch.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If you go back to the beginning of this forum in 2010 - we were saying the same thing about the Boxing Day storm this far out..........and the weird thing is that was a La Nina winter with a similar beginning to the month

 

During 2010 we were saying the same thing two days before the storm. This is 7-8 days ahead. I also do not think the La Ninas or the overall weather regimes are comparable.

WX/PT

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

During 2010 we were saying the same thing two days before the storm. This is 7-8 days ahead. I also do not think the La Ninas or the overall weather regimes are comparable.

WX/PT

True but that storm and next weekends potential had/have plenty of cold enough air and strong HP to work with.......

[Wxoutlooksblog]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

True but that storm and next weekends potential had/have plenty of cold enough air and strong HP to work with.......

No problem with cold air. But there is a problem this year with the fast west to east jet stream and the fact that no more than one model picks up on even the threat every one in five runs of it. The odds are heavily opposed to this threat materializing whereas in 2010 the odds were just not at all that way. It is a very different year, different jet stream pattern, just not the same. I know you want to say well this is similar and that is similar so maybe it will happen this time. And I say well maybe it will, or else I wouldn't have even drawn attention to it. But all probabilities right now oppose this year's threat whereas they didn't in this same way in 2010 when there was a very amplified jet not nearly as fast. 

WX/PT

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Happy that the ski mountains have snow. When we in this forum discuss weather and rate winters it’s based on what happens where we live, not in mountains. 

So my opinion is less valuable than yours? Okay..how about this? I dont give a damn if you dont like cold without snow. No one else on the forum does either.

Stick to weather and so will I.