David-LI Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 12z gfs,icon,ggem,rgem are all showing 1-3” for the 84 corridor sun night into mon. We will take whatever we can get 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 hour ago, David-LI said: 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: can't really ask for much more from a general synoptic perspective here. 2.5-3 sigma ridge in an ideal spot with a potent vort diving into the Plains. details will get ironed out but it's nice to see the models keying in more on the second wave Quick question... can you Georges describe what this means for the Lennies of the forum. TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 5 minutes ago, North and West said: Quick question... can you Georges describe what this means for the Lennies of the forum. TIA. very strong ridging will encourage some kind of low pressure (potentially strong) somewhere over the E US. not sure how the first wave will impact the second as the ridge in the west builds, but models are beginning to key in one the second one more and weaken the first a bit. the pattern is favorable for some kind of coastal. the jury is out on how and where a storm forms (if one even does) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 I don’t understand why guys keep laughing at the possible snowstorm. This is a weather forum. A possible snowstorm in December in New York. It’s not like talking about a hurricane hitting Iowa. I just don’t get the craziness with the disbelief at the possibility 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I don’t understand why guys keep laughing at the possible snowstorm. This is a weather forum. A possible snowstorm in December in New York. It’s not like talking about a hurricane hitting Iowa. I just don’t get the craziness with the disbelief at the possibility part of the reason why this subforum has gotten so quiet IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Next cold shot around the solstice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I don’t understand why guys keep laughing at the possible snowstorm. This is a weather forum. A possible snowstorm in December in New York. It’s not like talking about a hurricane hitting Iowa. I just don’t get the craziness with the disbelief at the possibility I think people are a bit jaded with how bad the last few years have been.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s beginning to look like January could open on a mild note. It looks like the consolidation of the TPV between the Alaska and Greenland has moved up closer to Christmas from earlier runs which kept the ULs separate. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: I don’t understand why guys keep laughing at the possible snowstorm. This is a weather forum. A possible snowstorm in December in New York. It’s not like talking about a hurricane hitting Iowa. I just don’t get the craziness with the disbelief at the possibility I think people are just burned out tbh. Basically, lets laugh at hope because of how much crap has gone wrong combined with dashed hopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 20 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I think people are just burned out tbh. Basically, lets laugh at hope because of how much crap has gone wrong combined with dashed hopes. Yep. Best to keep expectations low and hope for the best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 We have no idea what will happen past 5 - 7 days at best yesterdays 12 Z Euro OP centered on Saturday 12/21 is completely different today as an example relating to the potential storm of yesterdays run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think people are a bit jaded with how bad the last few years have been.... More a recognition of what the Pacific has been doing since the 18-19 winter than being jaded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: More a recognition of what the Pacific has been doing since the 18-19 winter than being jaded. Agree. One saving grace so far is that we do have cold air around so maybe sneak something in-last December was very warm overall so we were toast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Agree. One saving grace so far is that we do have cold air around so maybe sneak something in-last December was very warm overall so we were toast. Yeah, that has been the only difference so far from past Decembers. We have been getting cold shots every few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah, that has been the only difference so far from past Decembers. We have been getting cold shots which have been largely absent the past few winters felt like a midwinter day here today-barely cracked freezing. Big storms will cut most likely but maybe we could get a light to moderate event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It looks like the consolidation of the TPV between the Alaska and Greenland has moved up closer to Christmas from earlier runs which kept the ULs separate. New run Old run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Only made it to 33 today in Central Park 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 A much colder air mass now covers the region. The cold will last through the weekend before milder air returns early next week. It could then turn unseasonably mild for a time. Additional rain is possible early next week. Following the rain, it will again turn somewhat colder before a much sharper shot of cold arrives for during or after the next weekend. Beyond that, the pattern will likely remain changeable through much of the rest of the month on account of a fast jet stream. The overall anomaly for the final week of the month is unusually uncertain with most of the ensemble guidance and the weekly guidance in disagreement. However, the probability of a mild end to the month and mild start to January has increased. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +5.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.050 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Too far out but we can have a white xmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 7 minutes ago, David-LI said: Too far out but we can have a white xmas Miller B signal on the models. Now where that goes is anyone's guess right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 11 minutes ago, David-LI said: Too far out but we can have a white xmas We also need a block with that HP in southeast Canada - problem is past day 5 -7 the models are disagreeing with other models and they are all disagreeing with themselves run to run - lets see if the 0Z GFS has the same solution as the 18Z - I tend to doubt it at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Sky high barometer readings tonight. 30.72" at the house. Still climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Never fails snowman in hear handing out weenies an laughs like Christmas gifts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 55 minutes ago, Picard said: Sky high barometer readings tonight. 30.72" at the house. Still climbing. 30.77 here according to my phone app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 30.77 here according to my phone app My god we’ve hit a new low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Definitely radiating. Down to 22 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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