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December 2024


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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS has not been reliable though. Probably a lot of back and forth. 

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

IMG_2346.thumb.png.f57152fe5ae64f0badfefc41281acdb2.png
IMG_2347.thumb.png.d331f066e0cd54d7a359a2b99185b17f.png

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Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

 

Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-13 at 6.54.32 AM.png

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Nice to see some areas with more than 5.00” since November 20th.

 

Data for November 20, 2024 through December 13, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 8.36
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 6.83
NY ST. JAMES COOP 6.54
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 6.48
CT GUILFORD COOP 6.27
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 6.20
NY CENTERPORT COOP 6.16
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 6.06
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 5.89
CT DANBURY COOP 5.81
NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.78
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 5.70
CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.67
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 5.60
NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 5.56
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 5.56
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 5.54
NJ HARRISON COOP 5.43
NY NEW WINDSOR 3.3 W CoCoRaHS 5.41
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 5.31
NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.25
CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.14
CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 5.13
CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 5.08
CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 5.05
CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 5.05
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.02
NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 5.01
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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

IMG_2346.thumb.png.f57152fe5ae64f0badfefc41281acdb2.png
IMG_2347.thumb.png.d331f066e0cd54d7a359a2b99185b17f.png

More of the same garbage we've seen past decade. I don't mind it honestly. Hopefully we're warm/dry

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21 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah our average December snowfall prior to 2000 was like 2.6". We're just reverting back to that

The main difference back then is NYC didn’t have 3 consecutive Decembers with under 1” of snow like they did in 2021,2022, and 2023.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2023 T 0
2022 T 0
2021 0.2 0
2020 10.5 0
2019 2.5 0
2018 T 0
2017 7.7 0
2016 3.2 0
2015 T 0
2014 1.0 0
2013 8.6 0
2012 0.4 0
2011 0.0 0
2010 20.1 0
2009 12.4 0
2008 6.0 0
2007 2.9 0
2006 0.0 0
2005 9.7 0
2004 3.0 0
2003 19.8 0
2002 11.0 0
2001 T 0
2000 13.4 0
1999 T 0
1998 2.0 0
1997 T 0
1996 T 0
1995 11.5 0
1994 T 0
1993 6.9 0
1992 0.4 0
1991 0.7 0
1990 7.2 0
1989 1.4 0
1988 0.3 0
1987 2.6 0
1986 0.6 0
1985 0.9 0
1984 5.5 0
1983 1.6 0
1982 3.0 0
1981 2.1 0
1980 2.8 0
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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

 

Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-13 at 6.54.32 AM.png

There was no movement in the Drought Monitor issued yesterday but the most recent rains were not figured into it.  Should be some improvement in next weeks issuance.  These are some nice 3 week totals.

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30 / 7 off a low of 22 here.  Cold the next 36 hours.  Warmer wetter replay of the last week Sun - Tue  up to 0.75.  colder period by next sunday 21st and into /through Christmas with big WC ridge.  Storms and each storm's potential should be interesting to track.  Beyond Christmas near / warmer than normal rebound by the close of the month.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2015) first of many record highs that month / season
NYC: 67 (2015)
LGA: 63 (1946)
JFK: 70 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1960)
NYC: 8 (1960)
LGA: 8 (1960)
JFK: 8 (1960)

 

Historical:

 

1915 - A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for western New England. (The Weather Channel)

1962 - A severe Florida freeze occurred. Morning lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of December. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4 inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours. The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique. Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - A powerful Pacific storm system plowed into the western United States during the 13th-16th, producing high winds, heavy rains, significant mountain snowfall and causing 9 deaths (Associated Press). Rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches occurred in parts of California, and wind gusts over 45 mph produced up to 1.9 million power outages during the period (Pacific Gas & Electric).

 

 

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

So to summarize:

Lot of cold over the next 10 days…interrupted by a real warm cutter….Wouldnt be Dec without 55 and rain after all...and a nice mild finish to the month.

Sounds like a snowless December to me. 

Nice

 

*wouldn't be Christmas without warm southerly winds and driving rain

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48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s beginning to look like January could open on a mild note. 

Unless this holiday period potential pans out, looks like NYC won’t get the Dec 3” snow needed to be optimistic for a snowy winter. As everyone knows, since we have the same bad Pacific base state as the past 5+ years, my expectations are quite low. Hopefully I’m wrong. I agree with hoping for warmth if it won’t snow. We do still need the rain. 

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

Would add the caveat that this really applies for the area north of I-78. Central and especially southern NJ have seen less, and drought severity is higher there anyway, so need to see more to start to claw out. Yeah, largely outside "NYC metro", but know we have plenty of posters south of I-78. 

image.thumb.png.cd82f6bd1823a1ed0b5400455537b0b5.png

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Unless this holiday period potential pans out, looks like NYC won’t get the Dec 3” snow needed to be optimistic for a snowy winter. As everyone knows, since we have the same bad Pacific base state as the past 5+ years, my expectations are quite low. Hopefully I’m wrong. I agree with hoping for warmth if it won’t snow. We do still need the rain. 

Unfortunately, unless things change, NYC seems on course for less than 3” snow this month. The fast Pacific jet and NAO+ suggest a hostile environment for big storms like what was shown on yesterday’s 12z GFS. Smaller snowfalls might still occur if precipitation coincides with colder periods.

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