December 2024

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

So you did speak to Santa  

 

Yes

 

[brooklynwx99]

near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I printed this out from my basement 

Shit.  Heaviest totals once again to my southeast.  Dammit!  I was hoping for at least 30" here.

[MANDA]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great example of a long range OP GFS outlier run among its ensemble mean.

I used to doodle maps like this op run when I was in the 5th. grade!

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I used to doodle maps like this op run when I was in the 5th. grade!

We would all be much better off it they just made the OP runs available to 168 hours and everything beyond that time ensemble means.

[Yanksfan]

32 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Shit.  Heaviest totals once again to my southeast.  Dammit!  I was hoping for at least 30" here.

If that depiction ever came to fruition I wouldn’t worry too much. The big dogs always correct north as you draw closer in time.

[lee59]

Just as windy today as yesterday here, peak gust 35mph

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (1931)
NYC: 68 (1931)
LGA: 66 (2015)
JFK: 64 (2015)


Lows:

EWR: 6 (1988)
NYC: 5 (1988)
LGA: 8 (1988)
JFK: 7 (1988)

 

Historical:

 

1882 - Portland, OR, was drenched with 7.66 inches of rain, a record 24 hour total for that location. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - The first of three Middle Atlantic snowstorms produced a foot of snow at Baltimore MD. A pre-winter blizzard struck the northeastern U.S. producing wind gusts as high as 51 mph, along with 16 inches of snow at Nantucket MA, and 20 inches at Newark NJ. (David Ludlum)

1969 - The worst tornado of record for western Washington State tracked south of Seattle, traveling five miles, from Des Moines to Kent. The tornado, 50 to 200 yards in width, began as a waterspout over Puget Sound. One person was injured and the tornado caused half a million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - While a developing winter storm began to spread snow across New Mexico into Colorado, high winds ushered unseasonably cold air into the southwestern states. Winds in California gusted to 60 mph in the Sacramento River Delta, and in the San Bernardino Valley. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold arctic air spread from the Great Lakes Region to the Appalachian Region. Twenty-five cities, mostly in the northeastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 12 degrees below zero at Albany NY was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Saranac Lake NY was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 28 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm produced snow from northern Mississippi to the Middle Atlantic Coast, with 10.5 inches reported at Powhatan VA. Heavy snow whitened the Black Hills of South Dakota, with 36 inches reported at Deer Mountain. Thirteen cities in the north central U.S., from Minnesota to Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN and Yankton SD with morning lows of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995 - A severe coastal storm is blamed for five deaths and loss of power to over one million people in Oregon and Washington. Winds at Sea Lion Caves near Florence topped out at 119 mph before problems developed with the anemometer. In Newport, a gust of 107 mph occurred downtown, while Astoria and Cape Blanco also had gusts of over 100 mph. Astoria's air pressure dropped as low as 28.53 inches, an all-time record (and comparable to the central pressure of a Category 2 hurricane!). Gusts in the Willamette Valley exceeded 60 mph.

2008 - A significant ice storm wreaked havoc across New York and New England on December 12, disrupting electricity and leaving over 1 million homes and businesses without power. New Hampshire alone had as many as 320,000 residents without power, which according to reports it was described as the worst outages in 30 years (Reuters). Four fatalities were reported and parts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Maine declared a state of emergency (BBC News).

[Allsnow]

That’s an ugly look at the end of the eps today. Lower hgts start moving into Ak 

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

That cold shot around the solstice is trending colder on the ensembles. Would be a change from years past if we are actually cold around that timeframe 

2022 had and in-and-out cold shot centered around Xmas Eve IIRC.  Regardless, if you’re looking for snow to the coast, this pattern ain’t it.  I’m thinking there might be a short window or two later on in the winter though….

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s an ugly look at the end of the eps today. Lower hgts start moving into Ak 

While we have been able to sustain the +PNA as the ridge axis pushes east and pulls back at times, the ridge can’t retrograde enough to keep the EPO negative with such a fast Pacific Jet.

[David-LI]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Shit.  Heaviest totals once again to my southeast.  Dammit!  I was hoping for at least 30" here.

Are you being serious or sarcastic? Because this storm is so far out that IF it actually happens, this map will change dozens of times both in intensity and location.

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

2022 had and in-and-out cold shot centered around Xmas Eve IIRC.  Regardless, if you’re looking for snow to the coast, this pattern ain’t it.  I’m thinking there might be a short window or two later on in the winter though….

Bold call because all the models besides the cmc has snow to the coast. We have a chance with the cold air in place next week. 

Timing will be key again 

[TriPol]

I mnow it's far out, but im officially calling it:

WOOF

The last time I said this was January 2016.

[ForestHillWx]

I mean pretty sharp cut-off, south to north, verbatim. 

(#Sarc)

[MJO812]

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

That’s an ugly look at the end of the eps today. Lower hgts start moving into Ak 

The cold air in the East definitely begins retreating after the pre Christmas storm.

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The warm air out West starts building East on the EPS post day 9.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The warm air out West starts building East on the EPS post day 9.

That's way out there so not worried but I think we go up and down with temps until January with a storm to watch next week.

[forkyfork]

how are we going to avoid a raging jet when the west pac is like this

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, David-LI said:

Are you being serious or sarcastic? Because this storm is so far out that IF it actually happens, this map will change dozens of times both in intensity and location.

Very sarcastic.

[leo2000]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

That’s an ugly look at the end of the eps today. Lower hgts start moving into Ak 

The thing is the GEFS has been more right about the MJO progression then the EPS has. Just look at what the 12z GEFS is showing at the end. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024121212&fh=384

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

why even look at it

haha

[kat5hurricane]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think we're going to see a Dec 2000 any time soon. We basically had 2 warm days and the rest were below to well below average 

Forget December, I can't see any month being like that again for a long time. Plus, old "normals" shouldn't even apply anymore, like 1991-2020. We're in a new climate now unfortunately.

However, it's hard to compare any era to 2000-2020 or moreso 2000-2018. That was a remarkable era of snow and some cold winters mixed in.

[bluewave]

While these storms moving across the Great Lakes aren’t a great pattern for snow near the coast, we really do need the rain. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

how are we going to avoid a raging jet when the west pac is like this

We have a strong ridge in the west on the models. Do you even look ?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While these storms moving across the Great Lakes aren’t a great pattern for snow near the coast, we really do need the rain. 

Of course but it's still worth watching the waves next weekend. 

[donsutherland1]

A much colder air mass has returned to the region. The cold will last through Saturday before milder air starts to return on Sunday. It could turn unseasonably mild early next week. Additional rain is possible early next week. Following the rain, it will again turn somewhat colder.

Beyond that, the pattern will likely remain changeable through much of the rest of the month on account of a fast jet stream. The overall anomaly for the final week of the month is unusually uncertain with most of the ensemble guidance and the weekly guidance in disagreement.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was -0.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.588 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.8° (1.3° below normal).

 

[uofmiami]

For Anthony @MJO812

 

[bluewave]

Such a strong near record high would have been much colder in the old days. But it should still be a good radiational cooling event for the usual spots around the Northeast. Feb 34 was a 1050 mb high just north of Cleveland.