bluewave Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: People forget how cold Decembers used to get. Even in the 2000s there were several days with highs stuck in the teens Those were the days with extended December cold when we could get the whole month averaging around 32°. Now all our Decembers are in the upper 30s or the 40s. While we did get some real cold before Christmas 2022 with the NYC single digit lows, there was near 60° warmth before and after so the month on average was still 38.5°. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022-12-23 58 8 -4.1 2022-12-24 15 7 -25.9 2022-12-25 28 14 -15.7 2022-12-26 29 18 -12.9 2022-12-27 35 29 -4.2 2022-12-28 47 33 4.0 2022-12-29 51 40 9.7 2022-12-30 62 46 18.4 2022-12-31 55 50 17.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: People forget how cold Decembers used to get. Even in the 2000s there were several days with highs stuck in the teens I don't think we're going to see a Dec 2000 any time soon. We basically had 2 warm days and the rest were below to well below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 40 / 20 sunny and windy Gusts to 22MPH here. 0.87 in the bucket Tue/Wed and 1.01 for the week. Colder today - Sat then warmer Sun - next Friday. Additional rainfall next week eating away the deficit 0.25 - 0.50. All eyes on the 12/21 - 12/31 period. Close warm- normal and wet, colder and drier , or christmas snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Rainfall Tue/Wed: LGA: 1.12 NYC: 1.11 JFK: 1.01 EWR: 0.92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Rainfall yesterday was 1.2". Three day event total = 2.21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Seems windier today than yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Seems windier today than yesterday Winds howled here last evening once the front went through. Briefly lost power. Gusty all night and still gusty this morning. Much winder behind the front then out ahead of it yesterday around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2.1 3 day total. Nice, solid breeze today drying things out before it gets cold tonight FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 December’s have warmed dramatically, but let’s not pretend that highs in the teens or lows in the single digits were normal in December at any point. that was extreme even 30 years ago. The problem here is something that blue wave has pointed to. At least for new normals our December is gonna be pretty average… but these storms seem to keep cutting west of us and allowing warm air to come every time precipitation arrives. If we had snow yesterday and three days in the 30s, you would say what a December this is. But we had rain yesterday and three days in the 30s and then we’re gonna have rain again over the weekend and more cold day behind it. This is a pattern that’s been in place for at least 10 years now. It’s a big problem if you want snow. it was masked in the 2010s because we kept getting these one off big storms that made a month or winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: December’s have warmed dramatically, but let’s not pretend that highs in the teens or lows in the single digits were normal in December at any point. that was extreme even 30 years ago. The problem here is something that blue wave has pointed to. At least for new normals our December is gonna be pretty average… but these storms seem to keep cutting west of us and allowing warm air to come every time precipitation arrives. If we had snow yesterday and three days in the 30s, you would say what a December this is. But we had rain yesterday and three days in the 30s and then we’re gonna have rain again over the weekend and more cold day behind it. This is a pattern that’s been in place for at least 10 years now. It’s a big problem if you want snow. it was masked in the 2010s because we kept getting these one off big storms that made a month or winter. Yeah our average December snowfall prior to 2000 was like 2.6". We're just reverting back to that 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Finally a weenie storm on the gfs. That timeframe is the one to watch since all the models have some type of storm. They are also showing plenty of cold air around with a stout ridge out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Finally a weenie storm on the gfs. That timeframe is the one to watch since all the models have some type of storm. They are also showing plenty of cold air around with a stout ridge out west. Only 10 days away, lol. But at least we have a little hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Finally a weenie storm on the gfs. That timeframe is the one to watch since all the models have some type of storm. They are also showing plenty of cold air around with a stout ridge out west. I printed this out from my basement 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I printed this out from my basement if jerz gets that much snow that would be ridiculous. im gonna be upstate in albs for the holidays so im kinda (selfishly) praying the low ticks north by about 200 miles... but regardless, total weenie mode activated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I printed this out from my basement The Kuchera even better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 why even look at it 2 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Finally a weenie storm on the gfs. That timeframe is the one to watch since all the models have some type of storm. They are also showing plenty of cold air around with a stout ridge out west. The northern stream piece coming through the upper plains is problematic for areas North of the city because it forces the ULL East prematurely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: The problem here is something that blue wave has pointed to. At least for new normals our December is gonna be pretty average… but these storms seem to keep cutting west of us and allowing warm air to come every time precipitation arrives. If we had snow yesterday and three days in the 30s, you would say what a December this is. But we had rain yesterday and three days in the 30s and then we’re gonna have rain again over the weekend and more cold day behind it. This is a pattern that’s been in place for at least 10 years now. It’s a big problem if you want snow. Between 09-10 and 17-18 the Pacific Jet was much weaker. So we didn’t get the constant parade of storms cutting through the Great Lakes and hugging the coast that has been dominant since 18-19. When the Pacific Jet was weaker, we could get even get cold storm tracks in warm patterns. Meaning the Pacific was able to relax enough to allow a clean benchmark track with no weak lows over the Lakes. These days even benchmark tracks can have a weak low over the Lakes which warms the airmass too much ahead of the low pressure formation to our Southeast. Now we get warm storm tracks even during shorter cold intervals like we had in early December. Warm up ahead of the storm and cool down behind. The reason the snowfall has been so low in the 2020s is that we are getting both warm winters and warm storm tracks. Much stronger Pacific Jet since 18-19 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The northern stream piece coming through the upper plains is problematic for areas North of the city because it forces the ULL East prematurely. It's definitely going to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why even look at it Because this is a timeframe where the models show a storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Well that's one way to have a White Christmas, and a White New Year's at that depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Windier today than yesterday here. Gusts into the low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 That cold shot around the solstice is trending colder on the ensembles. Would be a change from years past if we are actually cold around that timeframe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I printed this out from my basement I was going to ask what you did to that model… lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Euro also shows a storm during this same timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 Great example of a long range OP GFS outlier run among its ensemble mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Great example of a long range OP GFS outlier run among its ensemble mean. Gefs has a storm signal. That's all we can ask for at this range. All the models have a signal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs has a storm signal. That's all we can ask for at this range. All the models have a signal So you did speak to Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs has a storm signal. That's all we can ask for at this range. All the models have a signal But a storm signal doesn’t equal big snowstorm along the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: But a storm signal doesn’t equal big snowstorm along the coast. No one said that. All I said a storm signal is there for the week of Christmas. There will be cold air around . Just have to see the track of the possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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