North and West Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 All that disappears as we approach that week. Thats been the pattern. They said there'll be snow at ChristmasThey said there'll be peace on EarthBut instead, it just kept on rainingA veil of tears . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Do like how guidance is showing a much more amplified MJO wave heading towards 7 end of December. Its been trying that all month but it just has been staying weak. I think there's a better chance its a non factor than the strong wave the GEFS suggests 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Looks like the fast Pacific flow continues until further notice. Warm ups ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind the storms. This could be a -1 to +1 month that doesn’t get decided + or - until New Year’s Eve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun put some nice hot mustard on that dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the fast Pacific flow continues until further notice. Warm ups ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind the storms. This could be a -1 to +1 month that doesn’t get decided + or - until New Year’s Eve. It might be a fast Pacific flow but the PNA will make it seasonable here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun and it's a rainstorm at that lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and it's a rainstorm at that lol i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evie3 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 hours ago, MANDA said: Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones. I've not seen any. Interesting. Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers. Not sure what is up with so many flying around. Feel free to remove if too far off topic. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html Mebs! They forgot to activate the cloaking device!!! I live near the Trump golf course, so I got a little carried away-aliens in New Jersey and all that. Apologies for the OT Coneheads reference, now back to the weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 I see Nassau is forecast to hit 58 on the 17th. And there it is, the obligatory soul crushing upper 50s/low 60s day within one week of Christmas. @the_other_guy, if it holds up that'll be a not bad call by you 3 months out. The sad part is that it's 57 and rainy as I'm typing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bunI hope you two spend Christmas together . 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like the fast Pacific flow continues until further notice. Warm ups ahead of the Great Lakes lows and cool downs behind the storms. This could be a -1 to +1 month that doesn’t get decided + or - until New Year’s Eve. Which is a win temp wise…but this pattern doesnt seem to support any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 In the wake of today's storm, it will turn briefly noticeably colder tomorrow through Saturday before milder air starts to return on Sunday. It could be unseasonably mild early next week. Early indications are that Christmas and Hanukkah 2024 will feature warmer than normal conditions in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +1.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.069 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.8° (1.3° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i wouldn’t have posted it, but verbatim it’s 6” for NYC with the 540 line central New England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with the 540 line central New England? front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: with the 540 line central New England? Yes front end thump There will be a storm during that timeframe. Not sure if there will be enough cold air for the coast but the pattern is going to get better as the MJO moves along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 300 hour 0Z GFS has a little light snow from an inverted trough for the area Christmas Eve. Sounds like a sure thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 300 hour 0Z GFS has a little light snow from an inverted trough for the area Christmas Eve. Sounds like a sure thing Euro also And now here is the Euro AI. Consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro also And now here is the Euro AI. Consistent. When was Christmas Eve moved to 12/22? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 13 hours ago, WX-PA said: It might be a fast Pacific flow but the PNA will make it seasonable here. It’s only seasonable since the new 30 year climate normals around NYC are close to 40° in December. Back in the old days seasonable was closer to the mid 30s. We used to get a really cold December around or below freezing once every 5 to 10 years . Now we will make it 14 years without a really cold December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 58 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: When was Christmas Eve moved to 12/22? This year Storm signal around the time. Time to track if. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This year Storm signal around the time. Time to track if. Did you fill Santa in on this? Agreed, a big ‘IF’ that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 It’s only seasonable since the new 30 year climate normals around NYC are close to 40° in December. Back in the old days seasonable was closer to the mid 30s. We used to get a really cold December around or below freezing once every 5 to 10 years . Now we will make it 14 years without a really cold December.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s only seasonable since the new 30 year climate normals around NYC are close to 40° in December. Back in the old days seasonable was closer to the mid 30s. We used to get a really cold December around or below freezing once every 5 to 10 years . Now we will make it 14 years without a really cold December. People forget how cold Decembers used to get. Even in the 2000s there were several days with highs stuck in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 People forget how cold Decembers used to get. Even in the 2000s there were several days with highs stuck in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 EPS and GEFS both show another +PNA ridge spike around Christmas. could be another risk for a storm, would have a much better airmass as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 I84 don't look too far ahead. Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2"). Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs. NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Did you fill Santa in on this? Agreed, a big ‘IF’ that far out. I think he did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: I84 don't look too far ahead. Probabilistic hazard for this Sun night... (EC 1-2"). Relatively consistent EC-GGEMlast several runs. NYC- no luck yet. Lets take the rain that comes Mon-Tue. Thanks Walt, something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now