December 2024

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's amazing people even look at these day 10+ OP runs....all fantasy at this range...

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run? 

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run? 

Nope.  Wouldn't be shocked either if the next op model cycle looked nothing like the current one.

10 day OP runs are bad enough and now we have added the EURO going out to 15 days along with the GFS.  Pure fantasy.  I'm all for pushing the limits of science but these 10 and 15 day op runs are essentially useless.  The ensembles are better but even they flip from cycle to cycle a lot of the time.

[North and West]

Hope is always 2.5 weeks away but it never comes.


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This sounds like the latest drop on a Taylor Swift album.


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[North and West]

It's amazing people even look at these day 10+ OP runs....all fantasy at this range...

Propaganda, right? People see what they want to see. Happens to all of us. We’re all susceptible to it. (See baseball free agency)


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[STORMANLI]

23 hours ago, psv88 said:

Making the decision to move to a new house. Unfortunately the house is 2 miles south of my current house, yet still in commack. I’ll be just south of the northern state and about a mile north of the LIE. Probably still far enough north to be ok in marginal events, but I’m not happy about it. 
 

however as I hit middle age it’s clear that not moving somewhere because it may snow an inch or two less is pretty ridiculous. South we go

Good luck with the move. I don't want to get in your business, but if you need help and I am around, let me know.

So now I guess you will become South Commack and my station will be Central Commack?

Best always and in all ways.

[uofmiami]

 

 

[weathermedic]

NWS OKX just hoisted the wind advisories/warnings:

CTZ007-008-010-011-NYZ078-080-177-179-110330-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.241211T1700Z-241212T0300Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Northwest Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Northern
Nassau-Southern Nassau-
219 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Middlesex, Northern New London,
  Southern Middlesex, and Southern New Haven Counties. In New York,
  Northern Nassau, Northwest Suffolk, Southern Nassau, and Southwest
  Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

 

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-176-178-110330-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.241211T1700Z-241212T0300Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield-Hudson-
Eastern Bergen-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings
(Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
219 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

[SACRUS]

 

leading area of Rain pushing into E PA

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

In case you didn't know we do have a separate thread for tomorrow's event

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

It's amazing people even look at these day 10+ OP runs....all fantasy at this range...

The Op runs have been exceptionally wild lately but the GEFS/GEPS/EPS the last 2 weeks have mostly handled the pattern well, they've been a bit too fast with the changes as is often the case but they showed the cool down, moderation, brief cool down followed by the moderation and then likely shift again.  They just have been about 3 days too fast on everything beyond D8-10 which is expected.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Good luck with the move. I don't want to get in your business, but if you need help and I am around, let me know.

So now I guess you will become South Commack and my station will be Central Commack?

Best always and in all ways.

Thank you sir. 
 

yes, southern Commack it is. My elevation is around 200, I’m right on top of a hill by the northern. Where i am now is in a valley of sorts at around 140, so I radiate really well. I assume on the hill I won’t radiate much but maybe the elevation will help in marginal events. I guess we’ll see

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be windy, rainy, and unseasonably warm. Some areas could see a thunderstorm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s into southern New England.

The storm will produce a general 1"-2" rainfall. Some places could see locally higher amounts of up to 3" of rain. Following this storm, it will turn briefly noticeably colder Thursday and Friday before milder air starts to return during the weekend. It could be unseasonably mild early next week.

Early indications are that Christmas and Hanukkah 2024 will feature warmer than normal conditions in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +10.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.260 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

The cold departure from the first week of December continues to get smaller as parts of the area approach record highs in the mid 60s today.

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold departure from the first week of December continues to get smaller as parts of the area approach record highs in the mid 60s today.

looks like it will get bigger over the next few days, huh?

 

Don’t know about that pattern change though…haha

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

looks like it will get bigger over the next few days, huh?

 

Don’t know about that pattern change though…haha

More like the recent December temperature climatology where the coldest departures relative to the means are in early December and the warmer departures occur mid to late month. This is why we have been getting so many 50s and warmer readings this time of year. But the colder starts to December have prevented the monthly record high from getting challenged of 76° on 12-07-98. Since even in our warmest Decembers like 2015 it’s hard to set a new monthly max later later in the month.

[brooklynwx99]

the timeframe around the 21st is becoming more interesting as all major ensembles have begun to converge on an anomalous ridge forming in a near ideal spot over MT. EPS has a 2 sigma full latitude ridge into W Canada, elongating the TPV southward

I am not trying to hype or anything due to the lead time involved here, but this setup does bear a resemblance to the Jan 2022 storm. same general waveform with a weak WAR helping to prevent an overly suppressive outcome

the antecedent airmass isn't as good here, but I still do think that this timeframe bears watching. inland is always favored at this time of year but even the coast can be on watch. just keep an eye on this over the next several days... the models have been volatile with the Pacific, so shifts are likely

[SnoSki14]

The problem with the LR is the Pacific jet keeps knocking down any ridging that tries to form out west. 

Its also leading to wild run to run changes. We would have to get lucky with timing here.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The problem with the LR is the Pacific jet keeps knocking down any ridging that tries to form out west. 

Its also leading to wild run to run changes. We would have to get lucky with timing here.

 

you often need a strong Pacific trough to get a tall ridge like that. can't have one without the other

the trough will knock the ridge down after it builds... there's always some needle threading with these kinds of setups

[SnoSki14]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you often need a strong Pacific trough to get a tall ridge like that. can't have one without the other

the trough will knock the ridge down after it builds... there's always some needle threading with these kinds of setups

Do like how guidance is showing a much more amplified MJO wave heading towards 7 end of December. 

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 61 cloudy and some light rain.  0.23 in the bucket and another 1 - 1.5 inches potentially to come. Breezy with a southerly wind. Colder Thu - Sat before more rain warmer Sun - Tue.  Overall near to slightly above normal into mid month and a bit beyond.

 

 

[SACRUS]

EC warmest ahead of front and trough

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2021)
NYC: 66 (2021)
LGA: 67 (2021)
JFK: 67 (1971)


Lows:

EWR: 11 (1977)
NYC: 6 (1880)
LGA: 14 (1988)
JFK: 13 (1988)

 

Historical:

 

1932 - Very cold weather prevailed along the West Coast. San Francisco received 0.8 inch of snow, and at the airport the temperature dipped to 20 degrees. At Sacramento CA, the mercury dipped to 17 degrees to establish an all-time record low for that location. Morning lows were below freezing from the 9th to the 15th at Sacramento, and the high on the 11th was just 34 degrees. The cold wave dealt severe damage to truck crops and orange groves in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure over southwestern Ontario, Canada, brought snow and gusty winds to the North Central U.S. Winds gusted to 62 mph at Riverton WY. Snow and high winds in eastern North Dakota reduced visibilities to less than one hundred feet at times. Warm weather prevailed across the Southern Plains Region. Half a dozen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Del Rio TX with a reading of 89 degrees. Laredo TX and Kingsville TX tied for honors as hot spot in the nation with afternoon highs of 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the central and eastern U.S. Sault Ste Marie MI reported a record low of 14 degrees below zero, and International Falls MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 25 degrees below zero. Temperatures remained below zero all day over parts of eastern Upper Michigan and northern New England. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Strong Santa Ana winds developed across southern California and parts of central California. Winds in Kern County of central California gusted to 100 mph near Grapevine. The high winds reduced visibilities to near zero in the desert areas, closing major interstate highways east of Ontario CA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992:A complex storm system moved eastward from the Gulf Coast of Texas to eastern Georgia on December 9 and 10th. In the next 24 hours, the low-pressure system moved to the Chesapeake Bay and rapidly intensified. This system produced gale force winds with gusts exceeding hurricane force affected not only the Mid-Atlantic coastline but also as far southwest as the southern Appalachians where trees were downed and roofs damaged. This storm also produced 20 to 30-foot waves in Massachusetts on December 12 and 13th. Precipitation amounts varied considerably. Rainfall amounts of 8 inches occurred in southeastern Massachusetts, while several areas in New York, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Maryland recorded more than 30 inches of snow. Precipitation ended during the evening hours on the 12th. Ten deaths resulted from the storm with insured losses totaling near $850 million and non-insured losses near $2 billion.

2008 - A rare snowstorm swept across parts of south Louisiana and Mississippi, blanketing the area with snow. Nearly 8 inches of snow fell over parts of Louisiana. These conditions caused schools and bridges to close and left thousands of residents without power (Associated Press). (NCDC)

2010 - The "Pineapple Express" - a meteorological event where southwest winds bring warm, moist air to the U.S. West Coast - produced record rainfall to the Pacific Northwest during December 11th-12th. Seattle experienced record daily rainfall two days in a row. The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport recorded 1.42 inches of rain on the 11th, breaking the old daily record of 1.32 inches set in 1955. The next day, 2.19 inches fell, breaking the daily record of 1.70 inches set in 1966. The Stillaguamish River in western Washington state reached 21.06 feet at Arlington, tying the record set in November 2006. Flood stage for the river is 14 feet. The storm system also brought record warmth to the area. On December 14th, the temperature at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport reached 57, breaking the old daily record of 55 set in 2004. (NCDC)

 

[SACRUS]

 

1960:  15.2 inches of snow NYC and the largest early snowfall.

[bluewave]

The Great Lakes continues to be the place for record snows in recent years.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Gfs very close with the coastal. Just weak with the 19th wave.

[North and West]

Gfs very close with the coastal. Just weak with the 19th wave.

Honest question… what are you referring to?




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[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

Honest question… what are you referring to?




.

Possible storm or storms during Christmas week.

[MJO812]

Cold Christmas on Euro

[MANDA]

Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones.  I've not seen any.

Interesting.  Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers.  Not sure what is up with so many flying around.

Feel free to remove if too far off topic.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html

 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cold Christmas on Euro

All that disappears as we approach that week. Thats been the pattern.