jm1220 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: Merry Christmas eve Rudolph moved to Hudson Bay? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 While there is forecast to be a weak low level inversion tomorrow, the models have 50 KT down to 975mb. So any convection could mix down 60 mph+ gusts on Long Island. Also our best rain event probably since last summer. Good low topped squall line potential with plenty of moisture available and highs in the low 60s. GFS Text Sounding | 21 UTC Wed 11 Dec 2024 | Latitude: 41.0000 | Longitude: -72.0000 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1002.8 0 14.9 12.9 87 9.4 178 37 13.7 16.5 287.8 314.2 289.4 1000.0 24 15.9 13.6 85 9.9 179 40 14.6 17.7 289.1 317.0 290.8 975.0 240 15.7 14.1 90 10.5 181 56 14.7 17.5 290.9 320.7 292.8 950.0 460 14.5 14.0 97 10.7 184 64 14.2 16.3 291.9 322.4 293.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: While there is forecast to be a weak low level inversion tomorrow, the models have 50 KT down to 975mb. So any convection could mix down 60 mph+ gusts on Long Island. Also our best rain event probably since last summer. GFS Text Sounding | 21 UTC Wed 11 Dec 2024 | Latitude: 41.0000 | Longitude: -72.0000 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 1002.8 0 14.9 12.9 87 9.4 178 37 13.7 16.5 287.8 314.2 289.4 1000.0 24 15.9 13.6 85 9.9 179 40 14.6 17.7 289.1 317.0 290.8 975.0 240 15.7 14.1 90 10.5 181 56 14.7 17.5 290.9 320.7 292.8 950.0 460 14.5 14.0 97 10.7 184 64 14.2 16.3 291.9 322.4 293.7 Surprised there aren’t more posts about this. Models show a window for gusts 50-60mph+ tomorrow evening near the coast. It won’t snow but that’s enough to cause local power issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 59 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Rudolph moved to Hudson Bay? Interesting that they use some of the same colors for above and below normal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Surprised there aren’t more posts about this. Models show a window for gusts 50-60mph+ tomorrow evening near the coast. It won’t snow but that’s enough to cause local power issues. Models do tend to overestimate winds though. I would imagine wind advisories for the areas west of the high wind watches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Surprised there aren’t more posts about this. Models show a window for gusts 50-60mph+ tomorrow evening near the coast. It won’t snow but that’s enough to cause local power issues. Plenty of extremes in this pattern with the potential to approach December record high pressure near 1048mb in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 45 / 45 fog and low clouds. Warmer than normal and wet later this PM and Wed up to 2.00 inches of rain and higher in the north / eatern spots. 50s today and low 60s Wed. 60 hour cool down Thu - Sat, then overall near to warmer than normal mid month and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Wet coasts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (1946) NYC: 70 (1946) LGA: 70 (1946) JFK: 59 (2015) Lows; EWR: 8 (1968) NYC: 3 (1876) LGA: 9 (1968) JFK: 9 (1968) Historical: 1699 - A severe ice storm hit Boston, MA, causing much damage to orchards. (The Weather Channel) 1946 - The temperature at New York City soared to 70 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1949 - The barometric pressure at Las Vegas, NV, reached a record low reading of 29.17 inches (987.8 millibars). (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought high winds to the eastern slopes of the Northern and Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 97 mph at Mines Peak CO. In Wyoming, up to a foot of snow blanketed the Teton Village Ski Resort, northwest of Jackson. Strong chinook winds in the Central High Plains Region, gusting to 61 mph at Scottsbluff NE, warmed temperatures to near 70 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Ohio ranged up to 14 inches at Harpersfield, and totals in western New York State ranged up to 14 inches at Sodus. In the snowbelt of Upper Michigan, the Ontonogon area reported two feet of snow in two days. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Heavy snow fell across the northern and central mountains of Colorado, with 24 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. Six to twelve inches of snow fell in the Denver and Boulder area delaying plane flights and snarling traffic. Heavy snow also spread across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Winner SD received 11 inches of snow, and more than ten inches of snow was reported north of Sioux City IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - A slow-moving Nor'easter storm batters the northeast U.S. coast killing 19 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1992 Dec 10 - 12 Noreaster https://wjla.com/weather/remembering-the-great-nor-easter-of-1992-17435 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Models do tend to overestimate winds though. I would imagine wind advisories for the areas west of the high wind watches Doesn’t seem to be much of an inversion with temps and dewpoints in the 50s. We’ll see. Hard to tell in advance sometimes if these wind events are overhyped or they produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Doesn’t seem to be much of an inversion with temps and dewpoints in the 50s. We’ll see. Hard to tell in advance sometimes if these wind events are overhyped or they produce. yeah being in the warm section helps here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The warm spots in NJ tomorrow could make it to the mid 60s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 HRRR very bullish on rain amounts with 2 to 3 inches for most of the area. Just what we need to help with the drought. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Had .39" here last 24 hours. Just about what I was expecting. #happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: HRRR very bullish on rain amounts with 2 to 3 inches for most of the area. Just what we need to help with the drought. Yeah i think we're good for at least 1.5" though some models have us in the in between zone with heavier amounts east and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Merry Christmas eve Let’s face it, we knew this was coming last Xmas Eve . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. -PDO doing the dirty work-MJO slow through the warm phases 4-5-6 and quick through the cold phases 8-1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. Maybe this is the year we break the under 3" December rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Merry Christmas eve Rudolph with your temps so red, won’t you help me put winter to bed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. Key here is "keep your expectations low" Not saying there can't be a few surprises but I'm not seeing anything right now that is offering a prolonged BN temperature regime or a favorable pattern for east coast snowstorms. Again, a few well timed systems with cold air could certainly deliver. Overall though the pattern is looking similar to the last several winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 55 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. Without a snowfall in December, its likely we don’t get close to normal snow this season in this regime. I went for 14 inches for CP. I feel good about that but could bust high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Yeah, going from the 2010s to 2020s has been the biggest decadal decline in snowfall that we have seen so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.0 2.5 7.7 7.8 0.6 T 18.6 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.9 5.9 16.5 12.8 8.2 0.5 44.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.9 T 5.2 12.2 7.0 0.6 0.2 26.1 2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.3 6.9 15.8 20.5 8.5 1.0 53.0 2018-2019 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 11.6 13.5 T 27.4 2017-2018 0.0 T 9.2 17.8 8.3 23.3 1.3 59.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 5.9 8.9 21.5 10.1 1.2 47.6 2015-2016 T 0.0 0.9 9.5 15.0 4.1 6.6 36.1 2014-2015 0.0 2.6 0.3 34.3 64.8 8.6 T 110.6 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.7 21.8 22.9 2.2 0.3 58.9 2012-2013 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.0 34.0 20.6 T 63.4 2011-2012 1.0 T T 6.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 9.3 2010-2011 0.0 T 22.0 38.3 18.5 1.3 0.9 81.0 2009-2010 0.1 0.0 15.2 13.2 7.0 0.2 0.0 35.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 1.3 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 9.7 2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2 2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9 2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.4 5.8 10.1 10.8 4.9 0.0 31.9 2018-2019 0.0 3.6 0.3 2.6 6.6 4.0 0.0 17.1 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 8.6 4.6 1.4 15.2 T 29.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 0.3 5.7 2.0 7.0 0.0 15.0 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 27.5 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.1 4.3 10.6 12.0 T 27.0 2013-2014 0.0 T 11.2 25.9 22.4 8.5 T 68.0 2012-2013 0.0 T 0.4 3.9 2.7 1.3 0.0 8.3 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.2 T 0.0 4.0 2010-2011 0.0 T 12.7 25.2 6.1 T T 44.0 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 24.1 3.1 51.5 T 0.0 78.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Nice change with the models heading into Christmas and beyond. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice change with the models heading into Christmas and beyond. I'm assuming at least colder and perhaps precip chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Nice change with the models heading into Christmas and beyond.Hope is always 2.5 weeks away but it never comes. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 lets just lock in that op euro run and call it a day lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 25 minutes ago, weathermedic said: I'm assuming at least colder and perhaps precip chances? 12 days from now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 It's amazing people even look at these day 10+ OP runs....all fantasy at this range... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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