December 2024

[NorthShoreWx]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was the most insane gradient I ever saw.  Closest comparisons were 1/23/98 and 1/7/94 where in the first case NYC/N Queens had a massive ice storm and were 28-30 while the central and S parts of the borough and LI had rain.  1/7/94 some of the very far northern parts of LI like Lloyd Neck had 8 inches of snow while the south shore was entirely ZR with some sleet at times

The gradient was crazy that entire winter (1994).  It was a snowy winter overall, but twice as much on north shore as South shore and tons of ice/sleet too.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

East sucked in that one.  Had about a half inch of snow over to rain here.  Eastern Massachusetts was the place to be.

I remember-that one had the wild development near Cape Cod that gave hours of thunder snow to E MA. 

[steve392]

Got what I'm hoping is my final mow of 2024 in on front yard just before the rains came. Grass won't stop growing. 

Steady cold rain.  

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Got what I'm hoping is my final mow of 2024 in on front yard just before the rains came. Grass won't stop growing. 

Steady cold rain.  

getting leaves done here this week and final cut.  Latest I can remember.  Norway maple finally lost the rest of the leaves last week.

[NorthShoreWx]

25 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Got what I'm hoping is my final mow of 2024 in on front yard just before the rains came. Grass won't stop growing. 

Steady cold rain.  

Same here.  Parts of the lawn are dormant and parts still look way too green.  Finished fall cleanup as the first few drops were falling.  Whatever else the wind blows in is gonna sit there until spring.

[steve392]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Same here.  Parts of the lawn are dormant and parts still look way too green.  Finished fall cleanup as the first few drops were falling.  Whatever else the wind blows in is gonna sit there until spring.

My locust tree dropped pretty much everything this past weekend. Had to mulch it up.  I have no dormant front yard at all. Backyard, most parts have been.  But front is dark green. 

[brooklynwx99]

wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch

Agree about a well inland threat. Verbatim, +NAO, no block, no 50/50 low. Plus an ongoing tendency of the models to badly underestimate the SE ridge/WAR at range, if a shortwave really amps it’ll be a runner or a cutter

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree about a well inland threat. Verbatim, +NAO, no block, no 50/50 low. Plus an ongoing tendency of the models to badly underestimate the SE ridge/WAR at range, if a shortwave really amps it’ll be a runner or a cutter

i wouldn't be so confident in an inland tracking low. is it favored, yes, but the ridge axis is over MT

[nycwinter]

remember when we use to have multiple  single digit low temps in december... now it is rare to have one night in the city where we get below 10 all winter ..

[psv88]

Making the decision to move to a new house. Unfortunately the house is 2 miles south of my current house, yet still in commack. I’ll be just south of the northern state and about a mile north of the LIE. Probably still far enough north to be ok in marginal events, but I’m not happy about it. 
 

however as I hit middle age it’s clear that not moving somewhere because it may snow an inch or two less is pretty ridiculous. South we go

[uofmiami]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Making the decision to move to a new house. Unfortunately the house is 2 miles south of my current house, yet still in commack. I’ll be just south of the northern state and about a mile north of the LIE. Probably still far enough north to be ok in marginal events, but I’m not happy about it. 
 

however as I hit middle age it’s clear that not moving somewhere because it may snow an inch or two less is pretty ridiculous. South we go

Enjoy the rain  Good luck with the transaction and move.

[Brian5671]

Hi wind watches Eastern LI and SE CT

[NorthShoreWx]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Making the decision to move to a new house. Unfortunately the house is 2 miles south of my current house, yet still in commack. I’ll be just south of the northern state and about a mile north of the LIE. Probably still far enough north to be ok in marginal events, but I’m not happy about it. 
 

however as I hit middle age it’s clear that not moving somewhere because it may snow an inch or two less is pretty ridiculous. South we go

With CC, the NSP is the new LIE. Tough break.  

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Enjoy the rain  Good luck with the transaction and move.

Thanks lol. I was holding out for a house north of the where I am but there was almost no inventory and what was available was awful. 

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

With CC, the NSP is the new LIE. Tough break.  

Yes probably. This area is usually on the frozen side in marginal events and also got a solid inch last week. Will be interesting to see if there is much of a difference 

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thanks lol. I was holding out for a house north of the where I am but there was almost no inventory and what was available was awful. 

Yes probably. This area is usually on the frozen side in marginal events and also got a solid inch last week. Will be interesting to see if there is much of a difference 

After I married I moved from E Northport to Brentwood and then Sayville.  There is definitely a big difference year round between the center and south shore of the island and the north shore.  Now I am in eastern PA and that is even more different.  Good luck with your move.

[NorthShoreWx]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Thanks lol. I was holding out for a house north of the where I am but there was almost no inventory and what was available was awful. 

Yes probably. This area is usually on the frozen side in marginal events and also got a solid inch last week. Will be interesting to see if there is much of a difference 

2 miles isn't much and the elevation along that section of parkway is about 300 feet.  You'll be fine.

[psv88]

54 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

After I married I moved from E Northport to Brentwood and then Sayville.  There is definitely a big difference year round between the center and south shore of the island and the north shore.  Now I am in eastern PA and that is even more different.  Good luck with your move.

That’s alot of moving around. Thanks!

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Thanks lol. I was holding out for a house north of the where I am but there was almost no inventory and what was available was awful. 

Yes probably. This area is usually on the frozen side in marginal events and also got a solid inch last week. Will be interesting to see if there is much of a difference 

Nothing's worse than where I grew up for any winter event and even some better events for most like 2/13/14. I just happened to get a good deal on where I live now too. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a mild day with readings rising into the lower and middle 50s across the region. Temperatures could peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s as far north as southern New England on Wednesday.

A larger storm will affect the region late tomorrow night into Thursday. The storm will likely bring a general 1"-2" rainfall. Some places could see locally higher amounts of up to 3" of rain. Following this storm, it will turn briefly noticeably colder Thursday and Friday before milder air starts to return during the weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +13.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.846 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Nothing's worse than where I grew up for any winter event and even some better events for most like 2/13/14. I just happened to get a good deal on where I live now too. 

That day was fun.  It was still snowing here while it was raining in Orange County.  Someone from North of 84 accused me of lying about the p-type.  IIRC, 14" was the total here that day and we did eventually have a very brief period of light rain.

[steve392]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That day was fun.  It was still snowing here while it was raining in Orange County.  Someone from North of 84 accused me of lying about the p-type.  IIRC, 14" was the total here that day and we did eventually have a very brief period of light rain.

That was an incredible storm for my area in nj.  Had nearly 2 feet and the day after had to drive to South Carolina. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That day was fun.  It was still snowing here while it was raining in Orange County.  Someone from North of 84 accused me of lying about the p-type.  IIRC, 14" was the total here that day and we did eventually have a very brief period of light rain.

I remember hanging on to heavy wet snow through the morning and measuring around a foot then going over to heavy rain before getting a few inches of wraparound snow. I remember losing alot of snowpack from the heavy rain in between

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I remember hanging on to heavy wet snow through the morning and measuring around a foot then going over to heavy rain before getting a few inches of wraparound snow. I remember losing alot of snowpack from the heavy rain in between

I remember JM raining while it was s+ for hours where I was a few miles north.  Crazy storm. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

I remember JM raining while it was s+ where I was a few miles north for hours.  Crazy storm. 

Yeah I was just rereading the thread. Crazy heavy snow for a time battling sleet then a dry slot 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I was just rereading the thread. Crazy heavy snow for a time battling sleet then a dry slot 

Just as the snow got very heavy in Long Beach the R/S line surged north, the huge aggregates started and 10 minutes later all rain. The R/S line stopped dead on Merrick Rd for hours. I think I ended with 7" of slop but most of the rest of LI had 12+. 

[MJO812]

No sign of a pattern change through Christmas on the models on the overnight models.

[Rjay]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No sign of a pattern change through Christmas on the models on the overnight models.

Merry Christmas eve

 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Merry Christmas eve

 

actually, looks like we’ll be one of the cooler parts of the country if you believe that graphic.

 

that said, same pattern in place for years now: two days of cold, then immediate moderation, than real warm when the storm comes. 

and repeat.

Any extended cold…like this last week…is dry

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Merry Christmas eve

 

Brutal

Hopefully the pattern change comes