donsutherland1 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Milder air surged back into the region to close the weekend. High temperatures included 55° in New York City and 59° in Philadelphia. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be somewhat cooler, but still on the mild side of normal. Temperatures could peak in the upper 50s and lower 60s into southern New England on Wednesday. A series of two storms will bring rain to accompany the return of milder temperatures. Tomorrow will likely see periods of rain with a general 0.25"-0.75" storm total. A larger storm will affect the region Wednesday into Thursday. At present, this storm could be capable of bringing widespread 1"-2" rainfall. Some places could see locally higher amounts of up to 3" of rain. Following two storms, it will turn briefly noticeably colder late in the week before milder air starts to return during the weekend. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +17.07 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.286 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.8° (1.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Man I gotta say since moving to Putnam county we haven’t had a great winter. Still go to Vermont and Catskills for most of my skiing. I’m ready to move back to southern Westchester. Miss it down there just so expensive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: This is why you can't trust any model past Day 5- 10 Verified -Dec 2 12Z Run Vs. Dec 8th 12Z Run concentrated on Dec 12 12Z GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits Also IMO anybody who knows what the weather will be like Christmas week today is kidding themselves........ The one constant is that the Pacific Jet has been verifying stronger than forecast leading to cutter and hugger storm tracks. So we get warm ups ahead of the lows with mostly rain at the coast. The cold comes in behind the storms instead of being in place ahead of the lows. The LES areas and higher elevations get the bulk of the snows. What you want to see is cold in place ahead of the storms with a clean BM storm track. But the fast Pacific flow has been working against the BM track for years. When we do get BM tracks there is usually a primary low running to the Lakes forcing the baroclinic zone too far north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: The one constant is that the Pacific Jet has been verifying stronger than forecast leading to cutter and hugger storm tracks. So we get warm ups ahead of the lows with mostly rain at the coast. The cold comes in behind the storms instead of being in place ahead of the lows. The LES areas and higher elevations get the bulk of the snows. What you want to see is cold in place ahead of the storms with a clean BM storm track. But the fast Pacific flow has been working against the BM track for years. When we do get BM tracks there is usually a primary low running to the Lakes forcing the baroclinic zone too far north. The neutral enso might help us out this winter. I think we are in finally in for a good winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I'm in agreement on EPS weeklies etc... grain of salt at best. Our long range models just can't pick up on the extremes that occur week 3 and beyond and they're not outstanding week two. Example of EPS large shifts below for temps the period Dec 9-16. NAEFS closes it out from Dec 2... with a much better solution--OVERALL near normal where the EPS has chilled greatly compared to Dec 3. Wish it were true that our modeling can reveal the abnormal departures beyond week 2... I dont think so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 On 12/1/2024 at 8:49 AM, donsutherland1 said: The week ahead looks cold and mainly dry. A clipper system could bring some light snow or flurries, especially from eastern Pennsylvania into New England late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Final Outcomes: The period was colder than normal but warmer than the guidance had implied. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Final Outcomes: The period was colder than normal but warmer than the guidance had implied. Agreed. Per the map, these cities in the -3 to -6C shading were closer to the -6C than the -3C based on the location of the small areas of the next colder shading over NC and a small area in New England being significantly closer than the nearest locations of the next warmer shading. This implies to me that this Euro run was predicting ~-5C or -9F anomaly for these 4 cities, which is nearly twice as large an anomaly as what verified. Edit: Aside: However, down in my area (KSAV), it verified at -9.6F or about right fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: The neutral enso might help us out this winter. I think we are in finally in for a good winter. Going to need to slow the Pacific Jet down in order to see decent snows near the coast. Notice how even in the short term we warm up ahead of the storms and the cold comes in behind the lows. This is a great pattern for the lakes and higher elevations. Fast Pacifc flow features alternating ridges and troughs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: The neutral enso might help us out this winter. I think we are in finally in for a good winter. Yeah right I'll believe it when I see it. The only thing I'm seeing is a likely end to dry conditions with fast pacific flow dominating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 13 hours ago, bluewave said: The one constant is that the Pacific Jet has been verifying stronger than forecast leading to cutter and hugger storm tracks. So we get warm ups ahead of the lows with mostly rain at the coast. The cold comes in behind the storms instead of being in place ahead of the lows. The LES areas and higher elevations get the bulk of the snows. What you want to see is cold in place ahead of the storms with a clean BM storm track. But the fast Pacific flow has been working against the BM track for years. When we do get BM tracks there is usually a primary low running to the Lakes forcing the baroclinic zone too far north. If we’re using the 3” metric for Dec snow and hope for a good Nina winter for NYC, hopefully we can get some kind of opportunity before the month ends. Right now it looks like crap at best. At least the rain is coming back. Long term droughts aren’t a thing here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah right I'll believe it when I see it. The only thing I'm seeing is a likely end to dry conditions with fast pacific flow dominating. We are starting the annual punt the good pattern out-we are now out to January.... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah right I'll believe it when I see it. The only thing I'm seeing is a likely end to dry conditions with fast pacific flow dominating. It's only December for crying out loud 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I don't know if the information is available, however the mid to late 80s and early 90s featured the dreaded cold/warm up ahead of storm and rain/cold for years. Was the fast Paced jet the same issue then or was another factor driving the bus? The information may not be around however may provide insight as to why this is happening and perhaps how long (was about 8 years before). I remember one storm in January 1993 I believe that was in the lower teens in the morning, received about 1 inch of slop and then 50s and heavy rain then everything froze on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't know if the information is available, however the mid to late 80s and early 90s featured the dreaded cold/warm up ahead of storm and rain/cold for years. Was the fast Paced jet the same issue then or was another factor driving the bus? The information may not be around however may provide insight as to why this is happening and perhaps how long (was about 8 years before). I remember one storm in January 1993 I believe that was in the lower teens in the morning, received about 1 inch of slop and then 50s and heavy rain then everything froze on the backend. Alot of out to sea storms back then too--the NAO was in a dominate + state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: Alot of out to sea storms back then too--the NAO was in a dominate + state Yeah just like the last few years where Norfolk, Tennessee, the Delmarva (Ocean City Maryland) have see good snowstorms. We have had strong negative NAOs like the past month and years with not much to show. This is really a parallel of the 80s and early 90s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We are starting the annual punt the good pattern out-we are now out to January.... Just to check your ridiculousness it’s December 9 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: The neutral enso might help us out this winter. I think we are in finally in for a good winter. 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Going to need to slow the Pacific Jet down in order to see decent snows near the coast. Notice how even in the short term we warm up ahead of the storms and the cold comes in behind the lows. This is a great pattern for the lakes and higher elevations. Fast Pacifc flow features alternating ridges and troughs 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah right I'll believe it when I see it. The only thing I'm seeing is a likely end to dry conditions with fast pacific flow dominating. 55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We are starting the annual punt the good pattern out-we are now out to January.... 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's only December for crying out loud It is ….. as always ….. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 38 / 34 mostly cloudy with rain closing in on EPA. Rain today around 0.25 for most. Next heavy rain Tue PM - Wed up to 2 inches of rain with more north and east. Colder Thu - Sat ahead of an overall near to warmer than normal Sun and into and beyond mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Records: Highs: EWR: 68 (1966) NYC: 66 (1966) LGA: 66 (1966) JFK: 64 (1991) Lows: EWR: 12 (1934) NYC: 7 (1876) LGA: 13 (1968) JFK: 14 (1968) Historical: 1786 - A second great snowstorm in just five days brought another 15 inches of snow to Morristown NJ, on top of the eight inches which fell on the 7th and 8th, and the 18 inches which fell on the 4th and 5th. The total snowfall for the week was thus 41 inches. New Haven CT received 17 inches of new snow in the storm. Up to four four feet of snow covered the ground in eastern Massachusetts following the storms. (9th-10th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1917 - A severe winter storm struck the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. It produced 25 inches of snow and wind gusts to 78 mph at Buffalo NY. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Vevay IND, with drifts fourteen feet high. By the 16th of the month people could walk across the frozen Ohio River from Vavey into Kentucky. (8th-9th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - The fifth storm in nine days kept the northwestern U.S. wet and windy. Winds along the coast of Washington gusted to 75 mph at Oceans Shores and at Hoquiam, and the northern and central coastal mountains of Oregon were drenched with three inches of rain in ten hours, flooding some rivers. Snowfall totals in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State ranged up to 36 inches in the Methow Valley. High winds in Oregon blew a tree onto a moving automobile killing three persons and injuring two others at Mill City. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter storm blanketed the Southern and Central Appalachians with up to ten inches of snow. Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. bringing subzero cold to Minnesota and North Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong storm produced wind gusts of 40 to 65 mph from the Alaska Peninsula to the North Gulf Coast of Alaska. Southeasterly winds gusted to 75 mph in the Anchorage hillside. Gusty winds associated with a strong cold front caused a power outage across much of the island of Hawaii. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 NYC Dec 9 2005 : 5.8 inches snow (7.5 for the week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Euro still driest around an inch for Wednesday. A bit more east. Nam 2.5+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 We are starting the annual punt the good pattern out-we are now out to January..... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I think we have a shot at something end of December pattern-wise. We’ll have a better idea if we punt on that early next week. Nothing screams good pattern though at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Euro Sunday night. Not enough cold air near the coast but interior could do well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 GFS BUFKIT does not really mix winds down, even at JFK but I'm always suspect, even in winter on SSE flow about that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: NYC Dec 9 2005 : 5.8 inches snow (7.5 for the week) I was living in PA at the time-8" or so there. South shore in that one had zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I was living in PA at the time-8" or so there. South shore in that one had zilch. That was the most insane gradient I ever saw. Closest comparisons were 1/23/98 and 1/7/94 where in the first case NYC/N Queens had a massive ice storm and were 28-30 while the central and S parts of the borough and LI had rain. 1/7/94 some of the very far northern parts of LI like Lloyd Neck had 8 inches of snow while the south shore was entirely ZR with some sleet at times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I was living in PA at the time-8" or so there. South shore in that one had zilch. East sucked in that one. Had about a half inch of snow over to rain here. Eastern Massachusetts was the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now