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December 2024


TriPol
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4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah looks like a rainy few days possible, and Wednesday could be a solid soaking.  I'll take it.  People need to temper snow expectations until January.  Honestly the way things have gone recently, I'd always wager on more snow in March than December.

The 2”+ potential on 12Z CMC would be a good news for some of the reservoirs that are running low.

IMG_2234.thumb.png.2b732b98d5dd041b19d9603043eba67d.png

 

 

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 

 

It's super crowded and not worth it.  Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead.

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 

 

I wouldn't do it if I was a CEO of a major company

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 

 

Do you like shopping, crowds, expensive restaurants and Broadway shows? Then yes. Otherwise probably no

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Do you like shopping, crowds, expensive restaurants and Broadway shows? Then yes. Otherwise probably no

I avoid Time Square every time I go, too crowded for me. Expensive restaurants are just a waste of money. I heard there is a home alone live show but I don't know where. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 2”+ potential on 12Z CMC would be a good news for some of the reservoirs that are running low.

IMG_2234.thumb.png.2b732b98d5dd041b19d9603043eba67d.png

 

 

When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air...

 

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44 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air...

 

Unfortunately, we have still been getting warmer storm tracks even during cold patterns like we just had due to how overpowering the Pacific Jet has become in recent years. 

IMG_2243.thumb.jpeg.fe7e3d6319bf6c07210c1739ab8e926e.jpeg

 

 

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3 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 

 

If you don't like crowds then you can come visit in the first two weeks of January. The tree and a lot of the Christmas stuff is still up and there are far fewer people. Plus the weather is usually more wintry.

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The first week of December concluded with a mean temperature of 34.7° in New York City. That was the coldest first week of December since 2007 when the mean temperature was 31.3°. Since 1980, every year with a first week December mean temperature below 38°, wound up with a monthly mean temperature below 39°. Since recordkeeping began in 1869, just 6 cases (9%) saw a monthly mean temperature of 39° or above after a first week mean below 38°. The warmest case in the period of record was 1971. The first week of December mean temperature was 34.6°. December finished with a monthly average temperature of 40.8°. Overall, the first week outcome suggests that December 2024 is on track to finish with a monthly average temperature below the normal figure of 39.1°.

Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC also saw their coldest first week of December since 2007. Richmond, which shivered under an 18° low this morning, experienced its coldest first week of December since 2002. Unlike in 2002 when Richmond saw 5.0" of snow during the first week of December, its 2024 chill occurred without any snowfall.

Milder air will return to the region tomorrow to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week.

In addition, rainfall will likely accompany the return of milder temperatures. Monday night through Wednesday night looks particularly wet. Following the rainfall, it could turn briefly colder late in the week before milder air again returns.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +17.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.761 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

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long range OP gfs doesn't look like a total torch outside of monday-wednesday of this week. doubt we see any real snowfall chances but im surprised temps are looking to hover around the high 30's to low 40's, which is definitely different than the forecasted near 50 everyday until after december 20th. obviously the ensembles will be more telling but its still encouraging to see

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12 hours ago, FPizz said:

It's super crowded and not worth it.  Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead.

Sorry, can't imagine picking Peddlers Village over NYC, especially around the holidays, when NYC is so vibrant and full of beauty (and yes, crowded, but it's crowded because it's worth visiting - plenty of places off the beaten track to visit). 

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