MANDA Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wet week on tap Will be interesting to see if heavier totals back west in future model runs. Certainly that has been the trend (excluding the current dry pattern of the last 2 months) over the past two years, for things to trend west. Especially on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah looks like a rainy few days possible, and Wednesday could be a solid soaking. I'll take it. People need to temper snow expectations until January. Honestly the way things have gone recently, I'd always wager on more snow in March than December. The 2”+ potential on 12Z CMC would be a good news for some of the reservoirs that are running low. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Just now, Snowstorms said: Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. It's super crowded and not worth it. Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. I wouldn't do it if I was a CEO of a major company 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. Do you like shopping, crowds, expensive restaurants and Broadway shows? Then yes. Otherwise probably no 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. this is worth it https://www.chambermusicsociety.org/our-concerts/at-lincoln-center/events/24-25/brandenburg-concertos/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 24 minutes ago, FPizz said: It's super crowded and not worth it. Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead. I'm going next week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Do you like shopping, crowds, expensive restaurants and Broadway shows? Then yes. Otherwise probably no I avoid Time Square every time I go, too crowded for me. Expensive restaurants are just a waste of money. I heard there is a home alone live show but I don't know where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm going next week It's close to Bethlehem. Also really nice during Christmas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: It's close to Bethlehem. Also really nice during Christmas. I have been to Hershey also during Christmas time. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The 2”+ potential on 12Z CMC would be a good news for some of the reservoirs that are running low. When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 44 minutes ago, Dark Star said: When you are snow starved, and in the pattern with that relentless Pacific jet, you don't like to waste any cold air... Unfortunately, we have still been getting warmer storm tracks even during cold patterns like we just had due to how overpowering the Pacific Jet has become in recent years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 I wouldn't do it if I was a CEO of a major company . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I have been to Hershey also during Christmas time. Very nice. I live 20 mintues away..come on out and visit! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. If you don't like crowds then you can come visit in the first two weeks of January. The tree and a lot of the Christmas stuff is still up and there are far fewer people. Plus the weather is usually more wintry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 The first week of December concluded with a mean temperature of 34.7° in New York City. That was the coldest first week of December since 2007 when the mean temperature was 31.3°. Since 1980, every year with a first week December mean temperature below 38°, wound up with a monthly mean temperature below 39°. Since recordkeeping began in 1869, just 6 cases (9%) saw a monthly mean temperature of 39° or above after a first week mean below 38°. The warmest case in the period of record was 1971. The first week of December mean temperature was 34.6°. December finished with a monthly average temperature of 40.8°. Overall, the first week outcome suggests that December 2024 is on track to finish with a monthly average temperature below the normal figure of 39.1°. Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC also saw their coldest first week of December since 2007. Richmond, which shivered under an 18° low this morning, experienced its coldest first week of December since 2002. Unlike in 2002 when Richmond saw 5.0" of snow during the first week of December, its 2024 chill occurred without any snowfall. Milder air will return to the region tomorrow to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week. In addition, rainfall will likely accompany the return of milder temperatures. Monday night through Wednesday night looks particularly wet. Following the rainfall, it could turn briefly colder late in the week before milder air again returns. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +17.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (1.1° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 On 12/6/2024 at 4:37 PM, nycwinter said: eventually it has to get cold and stormy.. Actually, it doesn't have to. It may or may not. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Actually, it doesn't have to. It may or may not. WX/PT Well it will get cold and stormy just not necessarily at the same time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Incoming snow for us city folk. Guess the forecast was off a bit since nothing was modeled for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Incoming snow for us city folk. Guess the forecast was off a bit since nothing was modeled for tonight. Is any of that reaching the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Icon is pretty wet for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Is any of that reaching the ground? Just flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Gfs also shifted west . Heavier rain during the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs also shifted west . Heavier rain during the week. Add the cmc also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Add the cmc also We need it!! Next 2 weeks + look shot for snow. Hopefully after Christmas pattern flips again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 long range OP gfs doesn't look like a total torch outside of monday-wednesday of this week. doubt we see any real snowfall chances but im surprised temps are looking to hover around the high 30's to low 40's, which is definitely different than the forecasted near 50 everyday until after december 20th. obviously the ensembles will be more telling but its still encouraging to see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 32° w/ lgt snow falling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 12 hours ago, FPizz said: It's super crowded and not worth it. Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead. Sorry, can't imagine picking Peddlers Village over NYC, especially around the holidays, when NYC is so vibrant and full of beauty (and yes, crowded, but it's crowded because it's worth visiting - plenty of places off the beaten track to visit). 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 i get the kids in car at 8 am on a Sunday. We drive down and do the radio city/tree/st pats/window loop. no one there. couldnt be nicer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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